With MLB teams jockeying for playoff positioning, the home run prop betting market is heating up, too, and we've put together a list of our favorite HR prop picks for today, Tuesday, July 23.
If you’re looking for action, check out our list below before the first pitch of the day, which is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.
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HR prop picks for Tuesday, July 23
All of our HR prop bet plays have odds of at least +475 on the top sportsbooks at that time of this post.
Juan Soto
Odds to hit a home run:
Game 1 of the Subway Series is tonight, and Jose Quintana is on the mound for the Mets. Quintana is 13th in MLB in home runs allowed, and the Yankees are second in home runs hit. Something has to give, and we’re leaning on the bats to prevail.
Soto is among the hottest bats in the league in July, averaging .348 and slugging five home runs this month, including two last night against the Rays.
Soto has just one hit and sttuck out twice in seven plate appearances against Quintana. However, the small sample size may have been just enough for the hot Soto to have figured him out. Quintana’s top three pitches and usage rates are the sinker (32%), curveball (28%), and four-seamer (21%). Soto is hitting the pitches at clips of .431, .269, .358, respectively.
Freddie Freeman
Odds to hit a home run:
Freddie Freeman is on track for his third straight month of smashing four or more home runs and batting at least .260. Tonight, he is up against Jordan Hicks for the Giants, who is trending in the wrong direction. Hicks has surrendered only 11 home runs this season, but 10 over his last 11 starts. Freeman has registered two home runs in his last four games, signaling the Dodgers slugger is seeing the ball well.
Freeman matches up well against Hicks. Hicks uses the sinker a whopping 51% of the time, followed by the sweeper at 23%. Freeman bats .246 against the sinker and has a putaway percentage of just eight against the pitch. Freeman is batting .435 against the sweeper.
This is an enticing price for Freeman tonight.
Randy Arozarena
Odds to hit HR:
Statistically, the Rays' Arozarena isn’t having his best season. However, he is trending in the right direction. He is batting .211 in 2024 but hit .291 in June and is .279 in July. He has compiled four home runs in July — three of which in his last three games. Tonight, he faces the Blue Jays' Jose Berrios, who is tied for worst in the league in home runs allowed with 21.
Arozarena is batting .286 against Barrios in his career, although he has never registered a home run against him. Barrios does have an abundant pitching arsenal, but only one is significantly effective. His top three pitches are the sinker (33%), curveball (30%), and four-seamer (18%). Hitters are batting .288 against his sinker and .333 against his four-seamer.
With odds of , Arozarena to go deep is a worthwhile wager to consider.
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