Trump Crushes Harris in Series of Polls as New General Election Matchup Takes Shape

While Democrats celebrate President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside and allow Vice President Kamala Harris to headline the party’s ticket this fall, polling shows that she still faces an uphill battle against former President Donald Trump.

A HarrisX/Forbes poll conducted between July 19-21 found that among registered voters, Trump boasts a 9-point lead (50%-41%) over Harris. Among likely voters, that lead expands to 11 points (51%-40%). Biden performs slightly better than his preferred successor among both cohorts.

HarrisX CEO and chief pollster Dritan Nesho noted that “Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump and leads her by almost digits in our polling.”

“If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late,'” he continued.

A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted over the same timespan also found that Trump leads, but by only two points (49%-47%) in a one-on-one matchup with Harris and four points when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West are included among respondents’ options.

Although that would be indicative of a much closer race than the HarrisX survey suggested, it would still mean that Trump is the heavy favorite, considering the fact that he won the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote by two points and nearly prevailed in 2020 despite losing it by 4.5%.

A CBS poll of likely voters carried out between July 16-18 tracked closely with Quinnipiac’s findings, showing that 51% would back Trump and 48% would back Harris. It also found that Harris’s approval rating is underwater by 16 points, 42%-58%.

A swing state survey of registered conducted at the behest of a Democratic political action committee from July 17-20, meanwhile, found that Trump would best Harris in in Arizona (46%-40%), Michigan (46%-41%), North Carolina (48%-44%), Pennsylvania (46%-42%).

While some observers have touted Harris as a much stronger general election candidate, a group of eight New York Times writers reached the conclusion that she was the weakest of 10 potential Democratic nominees after Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday.

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