Harris and Trump are tied, poll finds. Here's why strategists say that's good for Democrats

Nearly all Americans – 87 percent – think President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid was the right thing to do, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll . That view crossed ideological, generational and partisan lines, a strong note of unity in a din of national division.

Biden’s decision increases Democrats’ chances of winning the election, said a plurality (41 percent) of Americans. Those who felt this moment would prove a turning point included 65 percent of Democrats, 38 percent of independents and 21 percent of Republicans.

At the same time, 24 percent said Biden’s decision to exit decreases Democrats’ odds of winning in November, while 34 percent said his move will make no difference, including 42 percent of Republicans.

“If you look at the policies of the last four years, he hasn’t missed a beat,” Democratic strategist Adam Parkhomenko said. “But he’s not as quick as he used to be. Four years is a long time.”

Roughly three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Vice President Kamala Harris should be nominated for the top of their ticket in November. Fewer than a quarter said Democrats should find someone else to lead the party. This poll was conducted Monday, as endorsements, campaign donations and pledged delegates began to stack up in support of Harris taking Biden’s place.

If the election were held today, 46 percent of voters would back Trump, while 45 percent of U.S. registered voters would support Harris, falling well within the margin of error. Compared to the previous PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, taken this month before Biden left the race, support for both Trump and Harris fell by a few points each, while the percentage of undecided voters grew 8 points.

Whether Harris has the ability to attract voters beyond the Democratic Party – and overcome middling-to-poor public impressions of Biden’s tenure – is another question. Right now she’s under water for general perception, this poll found, though a significant number aren’t sure what they think of her.

In this latest poll, 44 percent of U.S. adults said they viewed Harris unfavorably. At the same time, 40 percent said they regarded her favorably, while 15 percent said they were not sure, including 19 percent of independents.

Biden’s exit is far from the only shock to the American political system in the last two weeks. Former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania campaign rally two days before the Republican National Convention, where he told his dramatic experience of being shot and paid tribute to other victims.

With the GOP coming out of a dramatic and unifying Republican National Convention and Democrats experiencing the “euphoria” of no longer having Biden running, Republican strategist Whit Ayres said it looks “like the two have canceled each other out. There’s no bump for either” Trump or Harris.

“You’re right back to a dead-even race,” Ayres said.

Biden’s decision to leave the 2024 race and his legacy

Within 24 hours of Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Harris, the Democratic Party raised more than $81 million, with a majority of donors saying it was their first time giving during this election cycle, according to a Harris campaign email. By Monday, the Associated Press reported from its own unofficial survey that Harris had secured votes from more than 1,976 delegates, enough to become the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee (although she has not secured that distinction yet).

WATCH: Harris solidifies Democratic support and is favorite to replace Biden on ticket

“I am grateful to President Biden and everyone in the Democratic Party who has already put their faith in me, and I look forward to taking our case directly to the American people,” Harris said in a statement released Monday.

About 1 in 3 Americans – 35 percent – said Biden’s exit made them more likely to cast their ballot in November than they were before he left the race. Those experiencing that new burst enthusiasm include 46 percent of Democrats, 35 percent of Republicans and 28 percent of independents. Overall, a majority of Americans said Biden’s decision didn’t affect their likelihood of voting, which may in part reflect the urgency that many voters were already feeling.

In a letter Sunday, Biden expressed his great honor in having served in the White House, but that he felt “it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down” and focus on the remainder of his presidency.

About two-thirds of Americans say Biden should finish his term as president, including most Democrats and independents. Republicans were split over whether Biden should resign sooner than next January.

Thinking about how history might remember Biden’s time in the Oval Office, 13 percent of U.S. adults viewed him as one of the best presidents in the nation’s history, while 37 percent said he was at or above average.

At the other end of the spectrum, 31 percent of Americans said Biden has been among the worst presidents in history. For comparison, 47 percent of Americans felt that way about Trump in January 2021, and 17 percent of Americans said that about former President Barack Obama in December 2016 as he prepared to leave office.

Biden will address the nation on Wednesday and is expected to talk about why he chose this moment to end his reelection campaign.

“When Biden speaks tomorrow about his decision, I really think it’s going to be a moment for the country to hear from his heart what a tough, sincere but also probably, at the end of the day, easy decision this was because he cares about his country, his party and his legacy,” Parkhomenko said.

Trump vs. Harris

More so than for Harris, people have made their minds up about Trump. Eight percent of Americans said they were not sure how they felt about him, compared to Harris’ 15 percent. Another 49 percent said they hold an unfavorable view of Trump, while 43 percent find him favorable.

For Republicans to control the narrative, Ayres said they have “got to drive home the case that the economy was better when Donald Trump was president than when the Democrats were in office,” adding that is “their strongest argument, particularly for non-white respondents.”

Harris’ element of the unknown could prove to be an asset on the campaign trail. In the days ahead, she stands to gain from “exciting waves of news,” Parkhomenko said, including the Democratic National Convention and the selection of her own vice president.

To keep up the momentum for Harris, Parkhomenko said Democrats need to stay focused and build on the unity forged over the last few days. He also said they must find a balance between debunking disinformation from the Trump campaign, “but at the same time, highlighting what we’re going to do in the next four years. It’s not just what we’ve done” during the Biden administration.

“Harris has far more room to grow, and Trump has hit his ceiling,” Democratic strategist Tory Gavito said. “Trump is stagnant at 46 percent, and he should be soaring right now.”

The one sure thing to come out of the last two weeks that have felt like a year in political time: Americans are more interested and engaged in the upcoming presidential election than they’ve been in months.

PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey on July 22 that polled 1,309 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, 1,117 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, 846 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in November’s general election with a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points and 515 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents with a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points.