Kamala Harris polls better nationally than Biden but worse in swing states

Don't count on Vice President Kamala Harris appreciably enhancing her party's chances to hold the presidency.

Now that President Joe Biden has cowered to the demands of both Democratic Party elders and his media detractors to withdraw from his reelection bid and make way for Harris, the party and its hagiographers in the press will rally around the vice president in a way that makes the past obsession and idolatry for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton look borderline hostile. Coupled with the coordinated plan to reinvent Harris into the next best thing since sliced bread, as well as the comparison of Harris's relative youth to the incumbent president's senility, it's fully possible that Harris will see a sizable boost in her public approval rating.

Nonetheless, as the available information stands, replacing Biden with Harris with 105 days until Election Day may minimize the party's polling deficit on a national level, but Harris actually seems to underperform her boss against former President Donald Trump in the most crucial swing states.

Following Biden's career-ending debate against the Republican nominee, the former president's RealClearPolitics national polling average grew to a 3-percentage-point lead over Biden. By contrast, Trump's lead over Harris is only half that, and the limited polling we do have does not make it clear that either candidate has national momentum. While Reuters found that Trump's 1-point lead fell to a tie against Harris since the start of this month, Emerson found Trump's 3-point lead over Harris in February has since doubled.

But it's the swing state polling that ought to concern Democrats.

In three July polls of the must-win state of Pennsylvania, InsiderAdvantage found Trump leads Harris by 7 points, Civiqs found he leads her by 2 points, and the New York Times/Siena College poll found he leads her by 1 point. Decision Desk HQ puts Trump's average lead in the state at nearly 4 points.

Harris fares best in Wisconsin and Michigan, where recent polling is thin. Civiqs found that she ties with Trump in both states, and American Greatness found Trump has only a 1-point lead in the former state.

Harris's electability evaporates outside of the Rust Belt.

In the last month of polling in Georgia, InsiderAdvantage found Trump has a 10-point lead over Harris, Florida Atlantic University found Trump has a 5-point lead, and an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released the day Biden endorsed Harris found her trailing by 5 points. InsiderAdvantage also found Trump has a 10-point lead in Nevada and a 6-point lead in Arizona.

According to RealClearPolling's favorability aggregation, all three contenders for the 2024 election are historically unpopular. The majority of the electorate looks upon Harris, Biden, and Trump all unfavorably. With a 43% favorability average, Trump fares the best with a net favorability rating of "only" -11%. Just 38% favorably view Harris, who has a net -14% favorability rating, and Biden's 39% favorability leaves him with a net -17.5% favorability rating.

Republicans cannot take this election (or any other) for granted. By replacing Biden with Harris, Democrats have discarded the personal baggage of Hunter Biden's corruption and criminal activities, Biden's age-related blunders and inability to campaign, and the mascot for the single most poisonous term in politics: Bidenomics. Harris may not be the most charismatic or eloquent orator, but the media will fall in line to make you pretend she is, and unlike Biden, Harris seems capable of campaigning with the vigor that reminds voters a worthy candidate must actually appear to earn your vote, not feel merely entitled to it. Furthermore, the dumbest people in Republican politics are already previewing attack strategies that Democrats would (not unjustifiably) blast as racist or sexist if Trump's allies were actually incompetent enough to adopt them.

But if Trump sticks to the fundamentals (that both Biden and Harris presided over a 20% increase in prices, a 5% decrease in real average wages, an influx of some 10 million illegal immigrants across the southern border, and a full-scale collapse of the geopolitical order from Ukraine to Israel), Harris faces an uphill battle with perhaps even stronger fundamental headwinds than Biden.