Who will win Olympics swimming? Medal odds, gold favorites, expert picks for 2024 Paris Games

The rivalry is in full effect.

The United States vs. Australia battle at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics took center stage in the thrilling back-and-forth that played out in the form of many compelling races, some stunning upsets, and narrow finishes. That was just a preview of what could be even more highly anticipated in the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Even before Cate Campbell stirred up the rivalry with her comments about the thrill that accompanies beating the U.S., the battle in particular between the women from both the U.S. and Australia was already shaping up to be one of the most exciting plots of the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Swimming is never easy to predict what's going to happen, but Sporting News is giving its preview of swimming at the 2024 Olympics, breaking down each individual race and who looks like strong candidates to medal. Because relay teams are not finalized until later, this preview will only focus on individual events. All odds listed are courtesy of FanDuel .

Take a look at how we see the races shaping up.

Who will win Olympics swimming?

Men's events

50 free

Sprint events are nearly impossible to predict because even the slightest hesitation on the block or a breath at the wrong time can cost a swimmer the event. That's why it's not a cliche to say the 50m free is anybody's race.

Australia's Cameron McEvoy looks to be the early favorite with a time of 21.13 in the 2024 World Championships, just ahead of Great Britain's Benjamin Proud (21.25) and Ukraine's Vladyslav Bukhov (21.38) for the fastest times in the world this year. Reigning gold medalist Caeleb Dressel (21.41 at the Olympic trials) can't be counted out to win his second straight Olympic gold after setting the Olympics record the last time he competed. Bukhov is hot in the event after winning gold at the 2024 World Championships and beating McEvoy and Proud, and we're taking him to keep the momentum going into Paris.

Expert picks: UKR Vladyslav Bukhov (gold), USA Caeleb Dressel (silver), AUS Cameron McEvoy (bronze)

100 free

China's Pan Zhanle set a world record in the 100m free with a time of 46.80 in the 2024 World Championships, and at 19, he's only getting started. He already has four World Championship gold medals, with the other free coming on relays. It's clear heading to Paris that in the individual 100 free, he's going to be the swimmer to beat.

Romania's David Popovici is not far behind Zhanle with a best time of 46.88 this year, and a pair of Americans in Jack Alexy (47.08) and Chris Guiliano (47.25) should also keep the race interesting. France's Maxime Grousset should put together a strong performance after posting a 47.33 time in the 2024 French Elite Championship and swimming in front of his home crowd. But it's hard to pick against the dominance of Zhanle for gold.

Expert picks: CHN Pan Zhanle (gold), ROU David Popovici (silver), USA Chris Guiliano (bronze)

200 free

The 200m free record has stood since 2009, when Paul Biedermann claimed the record at 1:42.00 in the World Championships. Though that mark has proven difficult to break, Popovici could be a strong contender to be the one to take it down in 2024.

Popovici swam a 1:43.13 in the 2024 European Swimming Championships and has a career-best time of 1:42.97, which is the world junior record. At only 19, Popovici is only getting faster, and he's made himself the clear favorite to win the race in Paris. Great Britain dominated the race in 2021 with Thomas Dean (gold) and Duncan Scott (silver) and have a chance to again make noise in 2024 with Matt Richards and Scott, with Germany's Lukas Martens also firmly in the mix. Popovici should make his first Olympic medal a gold one, with Richards and Martens battling for silver.

Expert picks: ROU David Popovici (gold), GBR Matt Richards (silver), GER Lukas Martens (bronze)

400 free

If reigning Olympic gold medalist Ahmed Hafnaoui were healthy and guaranteed to race, it could be hard to pick against him. But Martens has made it interesting, particularly when he posted a blazing time of 3:40.33 in the 2024 German Swimming Championship that was narrowly off the 400m record held by Biedermann from 2009.

Though Martens has the fastest time of 2024, he is far from a lock to win. Australia's duo of Elijah Winnington and Samuel Short posted times under 3:42.00 in the 2024 Australian Open, and Kim Woomin won the 2024 World Championships to top everyone in their first head-to-head race of the year. Those four, along with Germany's Oliver Klemet, all could make the 400 free a compelling four minutes of racing, which would only get more exciting if Hanfaoui is somehow able to participate in the race.

Expert picks: GER Lukas Martens (gold), KOR Kim Woomin (silver), AUS Elijah Winnington (bronze)

800 free

Can anyone take down Bobby Finke in either of the two distance-free events? He swept both races in 2021, setting a national record of 7:41.87 to win gold in the 800m free.

Finke might be the reigning Olympic champion, but he has some work to do to prove he's still the man to beat in the race. Ireland's Daniel Wiffen won gold at the world championships with a time of 7:40.94, just beating Winnington at 7:42.95 and Italy's Gregorio Paltrinieri at 7:42.98. Martens could also be in the mix for another top spot in the distance race. Finke, who hasn't won international gold since the 2022 world championships, could find this to be his toughest race, though we think he'll still find a way to reach the podium, even if it won't be to defend gold.

Expert picks: IRE Daniel Wiffen (gold), USA Robert Finke (silver), ITA Gregorio Paltrinieri (bronze)

1500 free

The race between Wiffen and Finke should continue in the 1500 free, though there's more than a chance again Finke could be in trouble in trying to repeat as the gold medal winner. Wiffen won the 2024 world championship in the event at 14:34.07, five seconds faster than Finke's 2021 Olympic gold medal-winning time and six seconds faster than Finke's best 2024 time of 14:40.38.

Wiffen has established himself as the heavy favorite, with Finke, Paltrinieri and 16-year-old Turkish phenom Kuzey Tuncelli likely competing for the other two spots on the podium. Tuncelli's 2024 European Junior Swimming Championship time of 14:41.89 set a world junior record and already places him among the fastest swimmers in the world at the event. Could the 16-year-old claim his first Olympic medal? We think he just passes Paltrinieri for the bronze.

Expert picks: IRE Daniel Wiffen (gold), USA Robert Finke (silver), TUR Kuzey Tuncelli (bronze)

100 backstroke

Ryan Murphy was unable to defend his 2016 gold in the 100m backstroke or 200m backstroke, finishing with bronze in the former and with silver in the latter. Returning to the top of the podium won't be any easier in 2024, as he has to square off against not only world record holder Thomas Ceccon from Italy but also fellow American Hunter Armstrong who has been getting faster, as well.

Even outside those three, the fastest time from 2023-24 belongs to China's Jiayu Xu at 52.05, not far off from Ceccon's record of 51.60. Ceccon hasn't been able to get back to that 2022 record lately, most recently getting to 52.27 in the 2023 World Cup, but the potential is there for him to claim his first Olympic gold. But given how well Murphy has been swimming combined with his experience, we're picking him to claim another gold.

Expert picks: USA Ryan Murphy (gold), USA Hunter Armstrong (silver), ITA Thomas Ceccon (bronze)

200 backstroke

Could Murphy make it two individual gold medals in the 2024 Olympics? His time of 1:54.33 in the 200 back at the Olympic trials is the time to beat in 2024, just barely edging out Spain's Hugo Gonzalez (1:54.51) and USA's Keaton Jones (1:54.61).

Jones had faster prelim and semifinal times than Murphy at the U.S. Olympic trials, only for Murphy to win the race that mattered the most. Jones is a bright up-and-comer who showed he's going to be ready to bring it when the spotlight is on him, and he and Murphy could make for a thrilling pairing to watch. But another young swimmer in Ukraine's Oleksandr Zheltyakov could make a major splash in the Olympics, as well after he burst onto the scene at world juniors. In a stunner, we're thinking the 18-year-old Zheltyakov, who is just over a second behind Murphy's time, drops enough time to claim an Olympic gold.

Expert picks: UKR Oleksandr Zheltyakov (gold), USA Ryan Murphy (silver), USA Keaton Jones (bronze)

100 breaststroke

This has been Adam Peaty's event for the past two Olympics. He claimed gold in the 2016 Rio Olympics and returned to win gold again in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. He hasn't been the same on the international stage since winning that medal, though he appears to be settling himself in well with a time of 57.94 in April, which is the fastest time posted so far in 2024.

But he has a major challenge facing him in the form of Qin Haiyang in Paris. Qin swept the three breaststroke races in the 2023 World Championships, and his time of 57.69 from the 2023 World Cup isn't far off from Peaty's 2019 world record of 56.88. The race for gold appears to be coming down to those two, while a wave of players, including current world champion Nic Fink, compete for bronze.

Expert picks: CHN Qin Haiyang (gold), GBR Adam Peaty (silver), USA Nic Fink (bronze)

200 breaststroke

Qin is chasing Peaty for the world record in the 100m breaststroke. He has no one to chase but himself in the 200 breast as he holds the record time of 2:05.48, set in the 2023 world championships. Qin is also the 2023 world champion in the race and has largely dominated the race since 2021.

There is still some uncertainty about the race as Qin hasn't posted a time faster than 2:07 in some time. USA's Matthew Fallon had an impressive showing at the U.S. Olympic trials at 2:06.54, and Japan's Ippei Watanabe also performed well in the Japanese trials at 2:06.94 to be the only two swimmers to drop below 2:07 this year. Reigning Olympic gold champion and former world-record holder Zac Stubblety-Cook also can't be overlooked despite his 2:07.40 time in the Australian Olympic trials looking a tad higher than others in the field. In a bit of an upset, we're picking Fallon to take down Qin to win his first Olympic medal.

Expert picks: USA Matthew Fallon (gold), CHN Qin Haiyang (silver), AUS Zac Stubblety-Cook (bronze)

100 butterfly

It feels almost impossible to pick against Dressel in any event, let alone the 100 butterfly. He holds the world record in the race at 49.45 and he is the reigning Olympic gold medalist in the race. And he dominated the race in the U.S. Olympic trials with a time of 50.19 to be the top American swimmer in the field.

But just as this was a tight swim in the 2021 Tokyo Games against Hungary's Kristof Milak and Switzerland's Noe Ponti, it should be again in 2024. Both the Hungarian and Swiss swimmers should find themselves right there with Dressel, as will breakout Canadian swimmer Josh Liendo, who finished with silver in the 2023 world championships and currently has the fastest time in 2024 at 50.06. We're still picking Dressel to win, but it will be close between him and Ponti.

Expert picks: USA Caeleb Dressel (gold), SUI Noe Ponti (silver), CAN Josh Liendo (bronze)

200 butterfly

The 200 butterfly has all the makings of a thrilling race that could be a wide-open battle for all three medals. The conversation of course has to start with Milak, who remains the world record holder with a time of 1:50.34 set in the 2022 World Championships. And at 24, he's not going anywhere.

But there is another group of young swimmers that are lined up to challenge the reigning Olympic gold medalist, led by France's Leon Marchand, who won the 2023 world championship, narrowly beating out Poland's Krzysztof Chmielewski and Japan's Tomoru Honda. Honda currently has the fastest time in 2024 at 1:53.15, but Milak, Japan's Genki Terakado, and Marchand are all within a second. How much will the home-pool advantage help? We've got Marchand just topping Honda and Milak for the gold.

Expert picks: FRA Leon Marchand (gold), JPN Tomoru Honda (silver), HUN Kristof Milak (bronze)

200 IM

If Marchand does win the 200 butterfly, the 2024 Paris Olympics could prove to be a huge international statement by the French swimmer. Because it should only get better from there. His best 2024 time of 1:55.74 in the 200 IM is the third-fastest in the world this year, and he already won the event at the 2023 World Championships.

The reigning gold and silver medalists from the 2021 Tokyo Olympics could have something to say about Marchand picking up the win in this race. China's Wang Shun, who won gold in 2021, holds the fastest time in 2024 at 1:54.62, a second ahead of USA's Carson Foster, who just edged teammate Shaine Casas in the Olympic trials. And the 2021 silver-medalist Scott isn't far behind the four with a time of 1:55.91, making only a 1.29-second difference between first and fifth. Like with the butterfly, we're seeing Marchand continue his breakout with another gold, topping Foster and Shun.

Expert picks: FRA Leon Marchand (gold), USA Carson Foster (silver), CHN Wang Shun (bronze)

400 IM

Remember when we said it only gets better for Marchand? Well, the 22-year-old swimmer is already the world record holder in the 400m IM, taking the record from Michael Phelps with a time of 4:02.50, which Marchand recorded back in the 2023 World Championships. He was only at 4:11.21 back in April 2024, but the potential to drastically drop time to reach the record again makes him a huge favorite in the 400 individual medley.

Like the 200 IM, this is another race where Foster could find some success. He has the fastest time of 2024 at 4:07.64 set when he won the event in the U.S. Olympic team trials, and that mark puts him a full second ahead of New Zealand's Lewis Clareburt. Clareburt's advantage over the rest of the field is much more narrow, with five more swimmers all within a second of him in times posted in the 2023-24 swimming season. Still, we expect those three to be the top three finishers in Paris.

Expert picks: FRA Leon Marchand (gold), USA Carson Foster (silver), NZL Lewis Clareburt (bronze)

Women's events

50 free

Sarah Sjostrom came up just shy of her second Olympic gold medal in 2021 when Emma McKeon edged her to the wall on the 50 free with a time of 23.81 to 24.07. In swimming's most unpredictable event, Sjostrom feels like as close to a favorite as anyone.

The 30-year-old Swede has dominated the race on the international stage leading up to the Olympics and holds all the top five fastest times in the event in history, including this calendar year's fastest time of 23.69. McKeon did not qualify for the event in Australia, leaving the rest of the field uncertain behind Sjostrom. Poland's Kasia Wasick finished third in the 2024 World Championships behind Sjostrom and America's Kate Douglass, who will not compete in the 50 free, and could make a run at her first Olympic medal. But watch out for 21-year-old American Gretchen Walsh, who posted a blazing 24.06 in the trials.

Expert picks: SWE Sarah Sjostrom (gold), USA Gretchen Walsh (silver), POL Kasia Wasick (bronze)

100 free

This appears to be a three-swimmer race. Australia's Mollie O'Callaghan already has a pair of Olympic golds from swimming in the Aussie relay in 2021, and she won two world championship golds in the 100m free, though she did not compete in the 2024 edition, during which Netherland's Marrit Steenbergen claimed the gold.

Those two should be among the top two contenders, along with Hong Kong's Siobhan Haughey who finished second in both the 2021 Olympics and the 2024 World Championships. If O'Callaghan is at her best, she'll be tough to beat in the race, though Haughey is the most experienced and Steenbergen has been off to a hot start in 2024. In a narrow battle, we're going to take Haughey to win her first Olympic gold medal.

Expert picks: Siobhan Haughey (gold), AUS Mollie O'Callaghan (silver), NED Marrit Steenbergern (bronze)

200 free

This might just be a showdown between two Australians for the gold medal. O'Callaghan set the 200m free world record in 2023, only for it to be broken by Ariarne Titmus a year later in the Australian Olympic trials. That will make Titmus, the reigning Olympic gold winner, the favorite in the race in Paris.

Canadian phenom Summer McIntosh could make some waves in this race, as well as Haughey, the reigning silver medalist back in 2021. But as things stand, Titmus and O'Callaghan's fastest times this year are both more than a second faster than McIntosh and the rest of the field, which should put them at a considerable advantage heading into the race.

Expert picks: AUS Ariarne Titmus (gold), AUS Mollie O'Callaghan (silver), CAN Summer McIntosh (bronze)

400 free

Titmus took her rivalry with Katie Ledecky to the most-watched stage in swimming in 2021 when she took down Ledecky in the 400m free. Going into the 2024 edition of the race, there is going to be a little less intrigue to this race even with both Titmus and Ledecky racing.

That's because Titmus is far and away the favorite to win the race. The only question will be if she sets the world record in the process. She holds the mark at 3:55.38, set in the 2023 World Championships. She posted a time of 3:55.44 in the Australian trials, putting her in striking distance of the record. Ledecky instead will be battling with McIntosh and New Zealand's Erika Fairweather, the 2024 World Champion, for a silver medal.

Expert picks: AUS Ariarne Titmus (gold), USA Katie Ledecky (silver), NZL Erika Fairweather (bronze)

800 free

This race has lost a little bit of the excitement it had earlier in the year when McIntosh beat Ledecky in the event in Orlando. McIntosh did not compete in the event at the Canadian Olympic Trials, meaning she will not swim in the race in Paris. That sets up for what should be a rematch between Ledecky and Titmus for the gold.

Titmus gave Ledecky all she could handle in a narrow battle at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, but we're still expecting Ledecky to retain her gold three years later in the event. Ledecky is already around the time she posted in the race in 2021, and should still pick up some more speed as it gets closer to the main event. If Ledecky winds up dropping any time from her trials performance when she went 8:14.12, that is going to be extremely hard to beat for Titmus, who remains more dominant in the mid-range free events.

Expert picks: USA Katie Ledecky (gold), AUS Ariarne Titmus (silver), ITA Simona Quadarella (bronze)

1500 free

There's no reason to get too complicated with this race. Until anyone can prove they are in Ledecky's class, this is her race to lose. This has been her signature event for years, and in its second year at the Olympics, she will all but certainly come back to the U.S. with this gold medal in hand.

Italy's Simona Quadarella and China's Li Bingjie should lead the charge in what could be a thrilling battle for second, and it's possible one of those two give Ledecky a more competitive race than the dominating American swimmer has been accustomed to in recent years, but the race for silver is the more intriguing question in this event than the race for gold.

Expert picks: USA Katie Ledecky (gold), ITA Simona Quadarella (silver), CHN Li Bingjie (bronze)

100 backstroke

It's fair to say if you set the world record in the Olympic trials of an event, you're going to be the favorite. That's the case for Regan Smith, whose time of 57.13 in the 100 backstroke set the world record. Yet in a race that is only 100 meters, anything can happen. And this race could have plenty of chaos.

Kaylee McKeown won gold in the race in 2021 with an Olympic record of 57.47, just edging Canada's Kylie Masse and Smith. Her 2023 World Cup time of 57.33 was the world record before Smith at the trials. McKeown and Masse will again be in the mix for gold, as will USA's Katharine Berkoff, who is looking to join her dad in earning Olympic gold medals. We're taking Smith avenging her 2021 bronze and Berkoff stunning the field to give Americans gold and silver.

Expert picks: USA Regan Smith (gold), USA Katharine Berkoff (silver), AUS Kaylee McKeown (bronze)

200 backstroke

The 100 back might be a bit more wide-open, but the 200 back looks to be a battle between McKeown and Smith for the gold. McKeown holds the world record in the race (2:03.14), the fastest time in 2024 (2:03.30), and the 2021 Olympic gold medal. But after finishing with the bronze in the race in 2021, Smith has upped her game, swimming out to as fast as 2:03.99 in the event to narrow the top times with McKeown.

But will Smith be able to make up that ground on McKeown? Those few milliseconds might not seem like a lot, but McKeown is only going to get faster. We think she's got what it takes to hold off Smith to trade backstroke golds with Smith. Beyond those two, Canada's Kylie Masse has fallen off the event a bit since winning silver in 2021, but she had a strong showing in the Olympic trials to establish herself as a contender to reach the podium.

Expert picks: AUS Kaylee McKeown (gold), USA Regan Smith (silver), CAN Kylie Masse (bronze)

100 breaststroke

One of the oldest world records in women's swimming belongs to Lilly King, who holds the 100m breaststroke record of 1:04.13, set back in the 2017 world championships. Though King set that seven years ago, she remains one of the swimmers to beat in the race, particularly after her 1:05.43 time won the U.S. Olympic team trial and led in part to reigning Olympic gold medalist Lydia Jacoby missing qualifying for the Paris race.

Even without Jacoby in the race, King will face steep competition to win her second Olympic gold in the 100 breast. Tang Qianting won the 2024 World Championships in the race and reigning Olympic silver medalist Tatjana Schoenmaker posted a standout time of 1:05.41 at the 2024 South African National Championship. Can King hold off Tang and Schoenmaker? Our guess is the 20-year-old Tang makes it a sweep of the world championship and Olympic golds.

Expert picks: CHN Qianting Tang (gold), Lilly King (silver), Tatjana Schoenmaker (bronze)

200 breaststroke

Schoenmaker's breakout performance in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics was punctuated by a gold medal in the 200m breaststroke and a then-world-record time of 2:18.95. Russian Evegeniia Chikunova has since taken down the world record at 2:17.55, but she made a stunning decision not to compete in the Olympics.

But it's not just going to be Schoenmaker running away with the medal. Kate Douglass has also posted sub-2:20.00 times this year, joining reigning Olympic silver-medalist King in giving the United States a pair of gold contenders. Then there's also 23-year-old Dutch swimmer Tes Schouten, who won the race in the 2024 World Championships with a time of 2:19.81. The race is going to be a narrow fight to the finish, but we think Schoenmaker pulls off the second straight gold victory.

Expert picks: RSA Tatjana Schoenmaker (gold), USA Kate Douglass (silver), NED Tes Schouten (bronze)

100 butterfly

Anything can happen in the 100-meter races. But this is shaping up to be the strongest race overall for the American side. Gretchen Walsh set the world record of 55.18 in the U.S. Olympic trials, followed not far behind by stellar performances from Torri Huske (55.52) and Regan Smith (55.62), all of which comprise the top three fastest times in the event in 2024.

Walsh will certainly head into the race as the favorite, but Huske could give her another close race, just as she did in the Olympic trials. Reigning silver medalist Zhang Yufei should provide close competition, particularly after she put together a strong showing in the 2023 Asian Games. Germany's Angelina Kohler, the 2024 world championship gold medalist, also appears poised for a strong showing in her first Olympics. But as things stand, this race appears likely to be a race between Walsh and Huske for gold.

Expert picks: USA Gretchen Walsh (gold), USA Torri Huske (silver), GER Angelina Kohler (bronze)

200 butterfly

McIntosh appeared poised to threaten for gold in the 800m free. But by pulling out, it appears she's putting more eggs in the 200 butterfly basket. That decision could well pay off for her as she already holds the fastest time in 2024 at 2:04.33 in the Canadian Olympic trials to establish herself as the early frontrunner.

But though she won't be racing Ledecky, Smith will not provide an easy matchup for the young Canadian. Smith turned in a sterling 2:04.80 earlier in 2024, which hints that the two could battle in a tight race for the gold. Zhang, the reigning gold medalist, has posted solid times as well, but with injuries, she's a bit more uncertain in this race than in years past. Australian 20-year-old Elizabeth Dekkers earned silver in the 2023 World Championships, just ahead of Smith and behind McIntosh, making her another name to watch in the pool.

Expert picks: CAN Summer McIntosh (gold), USA Regan Smith (silver), AUS Elizabeth Dekkers (bronze)

200 IM

This race will call for some popcorn. Douglass, McKeown, McIntosh, and Alex Walsh are all set to compete in the 200 individual medley at the Olympics, setting up for what should be a thrilling race that will leave one of the star swimmers standing off the podium without a medal.

This event is all down to this dynamic top four, with all eyes on whether anyone will top the world record of 2:06.12 set back in 2015. McKeown has the fastest time of the four swimmers this year at 2:06.63, followed closely by Douglass (2:06.79), McIntosh (2:07.06), and Walsh (2:07.63), with each of the top three all coming from their respective trials. In a narrow battle, we're taking McIntosh upsetting the USA vs. Australia gold-medal race.

Expert picks: CAN Summer McIntosh (gold), AUS Kaylee McKeown (silver), USA Kate Douglass (bronze)

400 IM

The 2024 Paris Olympics have the potential to set McIntosh up in much the same way the 2016 Rio Games set up Ledecky for icon status. She has set the 400 individual medley world record several times, and her Olympic trials time of 4:24.38 remains the current mark to beat in the world.

There is little reason to expect McIntosh not to win the gold in the race. There's also little reason not to expect McKeown to finish second, as she posted a time four seconds behind McIntosh and four seconds ahead of USA's Katie Grimes for the second-fastest in 2024. Grimes appears to be set up well at least to earn a bronze, and she could make things interesting if she drops a decent amount of time.

Expert picks: CAN Summer McIntosh (gold), AUS Kaylee McKeown (silver), USA Katie Grimes (bronze)