Say it quietly because it might be stupid, but Chelsea…could actually be good?

Right, this is potentially a ridiculous shout that will make us look quite stupid within just a few weeks of the season, because it’s Chelsea and they don’t do normal and reliable. If they did, none of what we’re about to say would raise a single eyebrow.

But…to put our neck on the line slightly…we think there’s a chance (a chance, mind) that Chelsea might…actually be good next season?

We know, we know. This is a team that finished 12th in 2022/23, and looked to be on course for another, similar finish last season before suddenly everything came together in the latter stages for them to rise to a somewhat more respectable sixth.

This is a team got humped 5-0 by Arsenal, 4-1 by Liverpool, 4-2 at home to Wolves, and even lost to Manchester United. This is a club that failed to recognise that their issue was on the pitch far more than in the dug-out, not once but twice, and sacked a proven top four Premier League manager just as he had started to hit his stride.

That feeling that perhaps Graham Potter and Mauricio Pochettino were only somewhat responsible for their struggles was confirmed in vivid detail by a group of players who couldn’t even agree which of them was going to take a penalty, the most basic of responsibilities.

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There’s every reason to think Chelsea will continue in much that same vein. We have more respect for the Championship than to suggest Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is not up to Premier League level despite his excellent season under Enzo Maresca with Leicester City – he really was super – but it’s also hard to know for sure whether he’s a shrewd bit of business or their equivalent of Brendan Rodgers signing Joe Allen.

Tosin Adarabioyo aside, the rest of their business has – true to form – seen Chelsea spend a lot of money on very recent children, which even in an age where footballers are getting younger seems very “well, this hasn’t worked for us the past couple of years…let’s try it again”. Chelsea already had the joint-youngest Premier League side of this century last season, but apparently don’t believe there is much to be gained by adding wisdom and experience.

But despite all that, we don’t think it’s inconceivable that things might start to come together for Chelsea this season…not to the point of a title challenge, but enough for a sustained and credible return to the top four.

They may already have turned that corner, for a start. The league table from Christmas onwards would have had Chelsea in fourth; from mid-February onwards, third; from early March…still third, but really not very far behind Manchester City and Arsenal (two points and one point respectively, albeit having played a game more).

Although their managerial dismissals have confirmed they had higher expectations, Chelsea will have been aware that their premium on youth would take time and patience before it started paying off. Human biology and physics being frustratingly and insurmountably what they are, those players are all a year older and more experienced than they were 12 months ago, with their trajectory last season suggesting they are getting better and better.

On their day, Chelsea can be sensational in attack,, as they were in their 4-1 win over Tottenham, 5-0 win over West Ham, 6-0 win over Everton, 4-3 win over Manchester United and 4-4 draw against Manchester City.

Those kinds of performances came with increasing frequency towards the end of the season – though of course the seven they conceded at home to Mancunian visitors points to where their problems actually lie, and that defensive callowness remains an issue.

Even as they went close to matching Arsenal and City’s points totals in the final dozen games of last season, they conceded more (20) than the top two combined (13). It’s asking an awful lot of Adarabioyo to solve that issue, which is why they cannot be seen as viable title contenders until they prove they can fix it through other means.

Finally, there is a sense of Chelsea figuring out who they can and can’t trust in that squad. Just four of the starting line-up who faced Liverpool on the opening day also started their final game against Bournemouth: the now-replaced Thiago Silva, captain Conor Gallagher, young buck Nicolas Jackson, and, with an asterisk, Raheem Sterling, who was making his first league start in over two months. The players who took the other seven places all proved to be better options, most especially Cole Palmer.

We were reminded the other day just how weird Liverpool’s recruitment was in their first year or two under Jurgen Klopp, and just how much stuff they threw at the wall to see what stuck: Sadio Mane, Mo Salah and Andy Robertson did, but Loris Karius, Ragnar Klavan, Dominic Solanke and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain did not.

Is it possible that Chelsea are ready to come out of their period of trial and error…or is it us that’s in error here?

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