There is a full slate of games on the MLB schedule today. Many of them feature some of the best bats against struggling pitching, setting up a great market for MLB home run props. We found a few we like on the top sportsbook apps .
Today's HR prop bet picks
All of our home run prop bets today could be found at odds of +230 or higher as of Wednesday morning.
Josh Naylor
Odd to hit a home run:
The Guardians first baseman is tied for 11th in MLB in home runs. In July, he is batting only .210 with just two dingers, but thanks to his matchup tonight, we like him to go yard. He faces Jack Flaherty for the Tigers, who has allowed six home runs in his last four starts. In five career at-bats against Flaherty, Naylor has three hits and no strikeouts.
Additionally, Flaherty uses the four-seamer at a 42% clip and the slider at 30%. Those are the two pitches Naylor has seen the most this season, and he is batting .264 and .283 against them, respectively. Those rank as the highest averages among pitches he has seen at least 100 times this season.
The cherry on top for this wager is that the Tigers bullpen is in the bottom half of the league in ERA and home runs allowed.
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Aaron Judge
Odd to hit a home run:
The Yankees slugger is always live to hit a dinger, and that’s especially true tonight. The Mets' Sean Manaea takes the mound for the Mets in Game 2 of the Subway Series. In 13 plate appearances against Manaea, Judge has six hits, two home runs, and a batting average of .462. Manaea has surrendered only 10 home runs in 19 starts this season, but seven of those HRs have come over his last nine starts, which doesn’t bode well against the Bronx Bombers.
When you look deeper at the matchup, it’s hard to believe Judge’s success against Manaea will plummet tonight. Manaea’s pitch selection and usage percentages are the sinker (35%), sweeper (17%), and four-seamer (15%). That’s right up Judge’s alley, as he bats .413, .313, and .318 against the pitches. To make matters worse for the Mets, their bullpen owns the 11th-worst ERA and has surrendered the 10th most home runs in MLB.
George Springer
Odds to hit a home run:
George Springer is in the midst of what is by far his best month of the season. He is batting .292 in July and has compiled five home runs. His previous monthly high in each category this season is .225 and four. Tonight, he’ll look to continue his hot streak against the Rays' Zach Eflin. Eflin has surrendered only 13 homers this season, but he is another pitcher streaking in the wrong direction, having given up five in his last eight starts.
Eflin’s pitch selection is sinker (20%), cutter (27%), and curveball (20%). Springer is batting .264, .179, and .375 against the pitchers. Although Springer struggles against the cutter, Eflin puts the pitch in the zone 55.4% of the time, and Springer’s chase percentage is below league average. Also, the Rays bullpen has allowed 58 home runs this season, second to only the Blue Jays.
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