COVID infections spike, raising concerns of another summer surge

A COVID summer wave has spread across most of the U.S. and western states are seeing particularly high numbers of infections. With more people traveling for the summer and gathering in large groups, public health officials are concerned these numbers won’t be going down anytime soon. William Brangham discussed more with epidemiologist Dr. Katelyn Jetelina.

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Amna Nawaz: A COVID summer wave has spread across most of the U.S., and Western states are seeing particularly high numbers of infections.

Geoff Bennett: With more people traveling for the summer and gathering in large groups, public health officials are concerned these numbers won’t be going down any time soon.

William Brangham has the latest.

William Brangham: That’s right. Across 45 states and territories, COVID infections are rising.

According to the latest data from the CDC, more than half of those regions are showing high or very high levels of COVID in wastewater samples. This rise is partly due to a number of new variants with particular mutations that make it easier for the virus to spread.

For more on what we can expect for the rest of this summer, we are joined again by epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina. She’s the author of the invaluable Substack column called Your Local Epidemiologist.

Katelyn Jetelina, so nice to have you back on the program.

Help us explain this uptick. Is it, as I mentioned, new variants? Is it our summer behaviors? What’s driving this?

Katelyn Jetelina, University of Texas Health Science Center: Yes, so there’s really a combination of three things that drive our summer waves. One is behavior change.

It’s really hot outside. People move indoors, and viruses love to spread indoors. Two is, COVID just keeps mutating. It’s mutating about twice as fast as the flu, and every time a virus mutates, it really finds a way to start chipping away at our immunity wall.

And then, three, just waning immunity. There’s this gradual decrease in protection at about six months after a vaccine or previous infection. So all three of these things really means the virus has found plenty of people to infect this summer.

William Brangham: I mean, in addition to the number of infections, we always worry about, is this wave driving hospitalizations and is it driving deaths? What’s happening with this current wave?

Katelyn Jetelina: Right. So, right now, the wave of infections is actually higher than we saw last summer. We have a pretty big wave of infections right now.

Thankfully, though, while severe disease like hospitalizations and deaths are increasing, they’re starting at really low levels and not increasing as quickly as infections. And this is thanks to population level immunity, right?

These severe disease rates are just not as high as we saw last summer, even this summer before.

William Brangham: So let’s talk a little bit more about that vaccination issue. Does the current booster that’s available protect against these new variants? And so, if people haven’t gotten one in a long time, should they consider that or should they wait?

Katelyn Jetelina: Yes, so COVID vaccines really continue to provide additional protection every year.

Right when you get the vaccine,they are effective against infection, but imperfect and suboptimal, right? Maybe about 20 percent additional protection. The big bang for the buck is in severe disease. Protection against hospitalization and ICU is about 60 percent additional protection.

But, again, that wanes over time. And so what we’re seeing, especially among those over 65 and immunocompromised, if they haven’t gotten a vaccine in the past six months, you may want to consider one right now. But I would get one pretty quickly, because the fall is coming. We are going to have an updated vaccine and we want at least four months between each vaccine dose to work its best.

William Brangham: Let’s say somebody does get infected. Are the current tests that are available in drugstores accurately able to identify current infections?

And, two, what about the rules vis-a-vis isolation?

Katelyn Jetelina: Right.

So COVID-19 at-home antigen tests are still a really great tool. They’re very good at telling you when you’re very infectious. What I think antigen tests are the best at are telling us when we leave isolation when we’re not infectious anymore. According to the CDC, though, you can leave isolation 24 hours after your fever and your symptoms are improving.

But after that time period, then it’s recommended, for about five more days, you still wear a mask. You still test if you go see grandma at the nursing home, because there’s definitely some infectious virus that may still be hanging around.

William Brangham: Anecdotally, a lot of people I know have been getting it, and it seems that this new variant is making them quite a bit sicker than it was in past variants.

But it seems that most people just sort of treat this as a cold or a flu. It’s sort of a passing thing that people are not that concerned about. From your perspective, is that a good idea? Is that OK that people are starting to view COVID this way?

Katelyn Jetelina: I think it’s a good sign, right? It’s great that our hospitals are not overwhelming. It was exhausting back then.

But it is important to realize that COVID-19 is still more severe, it’s more deadly than the flu, about 30 to 40 percent higher. And so I really worry about those that are older, over 65, even over 70, those in nursing homes, those with a lot of comorbidities, because that is — among those, your immune systems are weaker. And when your immune systems are weaker, it’s harder to fight.

So we’re still approaching with this as it’s best to prevent infection in the first place through masks, through ventilation, for example,but, if you do get infected, to really isolate so you don’t continue spreading it to other people in your community.

William Brangham: All right, Katelyn Jetelina of Your Local Epidemiologist, always good to hear from you. Thank you so much.

Katelyn Jetelina: Thanks for having me.