Who will win Olympics basketball? Medal odds, gold favorites, expert picks for 2024 Paris Games

Men's basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics is almost here.

Countries have been playing exhibition games all month in preparation for the Games, which kick off on Saturday, July 27.

The United States will look to win its fifth consecutive gold medal led by the superstar trio of LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant.

It will have plenty of competition with Nikola Jokic and Serbia, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada, Victor Wembanyama and France, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece trying to dethrone the world's basketball powerhouse.

As we prepare for the Group Stage to start, take a look at the odds to win gold for men's basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics. The Sporting News makes its pick, as well as some sleeper countries to watch and others to stay away from.

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2024 Paris Olympics men's basketball odds

As you would expect, the United States are heavy favorites (-650) to win gold at the Paris Olympics.

Its biggest challengers are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada (+1100), Victor Wembanyama and France (+1100), and Nikola Jokic and Serbia (+1400).

You can find the gold medal odds for all 12 teams competing in the Paris Olympics below, courtesy of BetMGM .

Who will win gold for men's basketball at 2024 Paris Olympics?

Our pick: USA (-650)

Let's not overthink this.

Team USA has won five consecutive Olympic gold medals and seven of the past eight. Their 2024 roster challenges the 2012 Redeem Team for the most talented collection of players to represent the United States at the Olympics since the 1992 Dream Team.

Head coach Steve Kerr has his hands full trying to navigate starting lineups and rotations, but it's not a bad problem to have. LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Joel Embiid have started every game, and stars like Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, and Jrue Holiday have taken turns with the first unit.

That leaves NBA Defensive Player of the Year candidates Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo holding down the second unit — and that has been Team USA's scariest duo during their pre-Olympic tune-up games. All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton and NBA champion Derrick White have alternated for the final guard rotation spot.

Oh, and, Kevin Durant — a three-time Olympic gold medalist and USA Basksetball's all-time leading scorer — has yet to take the floor as he eases his way back from a calf strain . He is expected to miss the United States' first game against Serbia but should return during the Group Stage.

Yes, Team USA almost lost to South Sudan and Germany during their showcase exhibition tour, but it prevailed to win both close games. Those battles will only benefit this team when the games count.

This isn't the year to pick against the United States.

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Long-shot picks for men's basketball at 2024 Paris Olympics

However, if you're someone who likes to sprinkle money at long-shot odds, there are a few enticing lines on the board, courtesy of BetMGM .

Our picks: Canada (+1100) and Germany (+2500)

Canada is the second favorite to win the tournament for a reason. It will send its most talented team in the country's history to the Olympics, looking to medal for the first time since 1936.

Gilgeous-Alexander is the head of the snake and will be a top-five player in the entire tournament. He'll have plenty of offensive help from NBA players like Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, Andrew Nembhard, and Kelly Olynyk. Defensive stoppers like Dillon Brooks, Luguentz Dort, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will make life difficult for opposing scorers.

Canada's only weakness is its frontcourt, leaning heavily on Olynyk, Dwight Powell, and Khem Birch since 2024 NBA Draft No. 9 overall pick Zach Edey withdrew from the player pool.

And then there's Germany, who is coming off a gold medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup.

Germany has the perfect blend of NBA talent and long-time continuity with the nation's best players outside of the NBA. Dennis Schroder turns into one of the most gifted playmakers in the world when donning his country's colors. Franz Wagner is a rising two-way star. His brother, Mo, Daniel Theis, and former NBA player Isaac Bonga bring high energy on both ends of the floor.

Andreas Obst is one of the best 3-point shooters in the tournament and Johannes Voigtmann is a near 7-footer who can bang bodies with any bigs.

Either of these countries is worth a flier if you're longing to pick someone other than Team USA.

Stay away from: France (+1100) and Greece (+2200)

France earned a silver medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and will be a popular pick to dethrone the United States. I know a Victor Wembanyama-Rudy Gobert frontcourt is exciting, but France lacks the guard talent to win gold.

Its long-time tandem of Evan Fournier and Nando De Colo is getting old. Frank Ntilikina just isn't good enough offensively. Nic Batum, Bilal Coulibaly, and even Wembanyama will pick up some ball-handling duties, but France's void in the backcourt will be glaring.

As for Greece, there is too much depth on other rosters for Giannis Antetokounmpo to carry his country to the top spot on the podium. Yes, he will be one of the five best players in the tournament, but every single game plan will be devised to contain him. As NBA teams have shown us, that is a possible task if you have players with the right blend of size, physicality, and speed.