Just 1 point separates Trump and Harris in Michigan, new poll shows

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD, WLNS) — An upheaval at the top of the Democratic ticket has narrowed an already tight presidential race in Michigan even further, according to a new poll.

A survey conducted by Emerson College Polling, The Hill and WOOD TV8 and released Thursday morning shows 46% of Michigan voters said they would vote for former President Donald Trump and 45% for Vice President Kamala Harris. With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%, that’s a statistical dead heat. Nine percent were undecided.

Eight hundred people in Michigan participated in the poll, which was conducted Monday and Tuesday after President Joe Biden on Sunday dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris. She has not actually yet been named Democrats’ nominee, but party leaders and convention delegates are quickly falling in line to back her.

The new poll found 77% of Democratic voters in Michigan thought Harris should be the party’s nominee, while 15% wanted someone else and 8% were undecided.

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College
Polling, said in a statement about the poll results. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

A late June poll conducted by EPIC-MRA before the presidential debate that ultimately tanked Biden’s campaign showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Biden in Michigan. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4%. An Emerson poll conducted after the July 13 attempt on Trump’s life showed him leading Biden by 3 points in Michigan; that one had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1%.

The Emerson poll found that about 68% of voters said the assassination attempt did not affect who they supported in the race, but nearly 22% said it made them more likely to vote for Trump.

Emerson’s data has Harris with 3 percentage points over Biden’s last showing in Michigan — 45% compared to 42%. Kimball said younger voters are also more energized for Harris, with her support increasing by 5 points among that demographic in Michigan.

The new poll showed Trump with a 16-point lead among Michigan men, with 54% preferring him and 38% preferring Harris. Harris led Trump by 12 points among Michigan women, 52% to 40%.

The economy remained the most important issue for Michigan voters, with 42% saying that was their top concern, followed by immigration and affordable housing.

The Emerson poll also showed tight races in other swing states — Trump and Harris were tied in Wisconsin and he held only 2 points over her in Georgia and Pennsylvania. He had a stronger 5-point lead in Arizona. Winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would give either candidate the clearest path to the White House.

Harris has yet to pick a running mate, though her campaign is vetting candidates . One of them is said to be Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Twenty-seven percent of Michigan voters said they would like Whitmer to be Harris’ vice presidential pick, though the governor told 6 News this week that she would not take the job if it was offered . About 12% of Michigan voters said they thought Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who also now lives in Michigan, should be Harris’ running mate.

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