Tropical activity in the Atlantic basin — which consists of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico — continues to be quiet, thanks in part to wind shear and Saharan dust .
Both conditions help to inhibit the development of tropical cyclones or strengthening of existing storms.
No tropical disturbances are expected to overcome those conditions over the next several days, although the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves , according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Activity is expected to pick up toward the end of July or first part of August.
➤ Track all active storms
"A lonesome tropical wave will be plowing westward through the dust this week; that system may be worth watching in the southwestern Atlantic or Gulf starting at end of next week, if anything is left of it after its trek," according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
Twisters meet hurricanes: The facts on tropical tornado threats | WeatherTiger
Despite this period of quiet, forecasters are warning the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be extremely active and everyone should be prepared before a storm is on the horizon.
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, activity has picked up, with the second named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Bud . The storm is located southwest of the tip of Baja California and is expected to stay over water and dissipate by the weekend.
The peak of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October. If your hurricane supplies are running low, or you haven't started an emergency kit, Florida's next sales tax holiday the end of August can help you save money.
National Hurricane Center hopes new cone will stop people focusing on Saffir-Simpson scale
The National Hurricane Center 's new experimental tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic will be coming out in mid-August, just in time for the peak period of hurricane season.
The new cone will add tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for interior counties in the path of the storm. The current cone displays watches and warnings only for coastal counties.
Watches and warnings for interior counties have been provided by local National Weather Service offices. The new graphic will combine tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings into a single graphic.
"We hope it gets people to stop fixating on less reliable tools like the Saffir-Simpson Scale. There are more accurate ways to convey actual wind impacts in your community and at your home," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
"The Saffir-Simpson Scale doesn't allow you to understand what the actual impact may be where you live. The Saffir-Simpson scale tells you peak wind (associated with a tropical storm or hurricane) but it may not be that over your community.
"A Category 5 hurricane over Vero Beach doesn't mean Category 5 winds everywhere in Vero Beach. That doesn't allow you to deduce impact or threats" where you live. " People misinterpret local impacts , with some overestimating the threat and some underestimating the threat."
"Explicit watches and warnings for high winds (in your county) allows you to prepare for tropical storms or hurricanes based on where you are."
What is the hurricane winds chart? How is the NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale used?
The Saffir-Simpson Scale rates hurricanes based on maximum sustained winds.
"This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes," NOAA said.
The scale estimates potential property damage.
Hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph — which are Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes — are considered major hurricanes.
"Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds," NOAA said.
"Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes. These hazards require people to take protective action, including evacuating from areas vulnerable to storm surge."
Saffir-Simpson Scale ratings and what they mean in terms of damage, as provided by NOAA :
- Category 1
- Sustained winds: 74-95 mph
- Damage : Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
- Category 2
- Sustained winds: 96-110 mph
- Damage: Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
- Category 3
- Sustained winds: 111-129 mph (major hurricane)
- Damage: Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
- Category 4
- Sustained winds: 130-156 mph (major hurricane)
- Damage: Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Category 5
- Sustained winds: 157 mph or higher (major hurricane)
- Damage: Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Trivia: In the western North Pacific, the term super typhoon is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph, according to NOAA.
Saharan dust should inhibit development of tropical cyclones through July
Saharan dust and high wind shear means there are no tropical disturbances with a meaningful shot at development for the upcoming seven days, according to Truchelut.
"A lonesome tropical wave just emerging from Africa will be plowing westward through the dust this week; that system may be worth watching in the southwestern Atlantic or Gulf starting at end of next week, if anything is left after its trek."
The next storm of the se ason will be Debby.
Temperatures and forecast expected today across Florida
- Pensacola : High 88. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms , mainly after 1 p.m. Mostly sunny. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
- Tallahassee : High 88. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1 p.m. Heat index values as high as 100. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
- Jacksonville : High 93. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Heat index values as high as 106. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80% . New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
- Daytona Beach: High 89. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9 a.m., then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3 p.m. Mostly sunny. East southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
- Melbourne: High 90. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7 a.m., then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3 p.m. Sunny. Heat index values as high as 102 . East southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
- Port St. Lucie: High 91. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3 p.m. Sunny. East southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
- West Palm Beach: High 87. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Mostly sunny. Heat index values as high as 100. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
- Naples: High 93. A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny. Heat index values as high as 108. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
- Fort Myers: High 94. Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny. Heat index values as high as 106 . East southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
- Sarasota: High 94. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5 p.m. Mostly sunny. Heat index values as high as 104. East southeast wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Florida weather radar: Track storms as they move across state
What is NOAA tracking in Atlantic basin?
The National Hurricane Center said no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next several days.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves. Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. July 25:
- Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
- Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave is located just east of the Lesser Antilles. It's moving west at 17 mph.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
When is next Florida hurricane tax-free supplies holiday?
Save on hurricane supplies between Aug. 24 and Sept. 6. This will be the final tax-free holiday for 2024 when it comes to emergency supplies and it comes during the busiest period of the hurricane season.
Can't afford a generator or weeks of food? Here are the basics you should have on hand.
Eligible items included in the tax-free holiday include:
- A portable generator used to provide light or communications or preserve food in the event of a power outage with a sales price of $3,000 or less.
- A tarp or other flexible waterproof sheeting with a sales price of $100 or less.
- An item normally sold as, or generally advertised as, a ground anchor system or tie-down kit with a sales price of $100 or less.
- A smoke detector or smoke alarm with a sales price of $70 or less.
- A fire extinguisher with a sales price of $70 or less.
- A carbon monoxide detector with a sales price of $70 or less.
- A nonelectric food storage cooler with a sales price of $60 or less.
- A portable power bank with a sales price of $60 or less.
- A gas or diesel fuel tank with a sales price of $50 or less.
- A portable self-powered radio, two-way radio, or weather-band radio with a sales price of $50 or less.
- A package of AA-cell, AAA-cell, C-cell, D-cell, 6-volt, or 9-volt batteries, excluding automobile and boat batteries, with a sales price of $50 or less.
- A portable self-powered light source (powered by battery, solar, hand-crank, or gas) with a sales price of $40 or less, including: flashlights, lanterns and candles.
- Eligible light sources and radios qualify for the exemption, even if electrical cords are included in the purchase.
- Reusable ice (ice packs) with a sales price of $20 or less.
➤ See full list of items, including pet and cleaning supplies, exempt from sales tax
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here .
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Saharan dust helping keep tropics quiet for now but busiest months ahead. Florida's forecast
Most Popular
Comments / 0