American consumers’ pants and bottoms acquisitions have been shifting, as shoppers have slowed their spending on activewear, sweats and denim in favor of casual and dressy trousers. But denim has opportunities to recapture market share by leaning into market trends, according to a Circana analyst.
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Denim is the third largest apparel category in the U.S., with almost $17 billion in sales. Due to its size, it has a significant impact on broader apparel market performance, and it typically ebbs and flows in the same direction as all combined fashion categories. However, in recent quarters denim has fallen behind the overall apparel market. Although apparel on the whole has been declining as of late, the overall market is showing signs of improvement and Circana forecasts growth in 2025. Zooming in on the first quarter of 2024, denim is down 4 percent year-over-year while all apparel is only down 1 percent.
Behind the numbers is consumers’ preference for “polished, casual” styles. “We’re seeing this shift away from denim towards these other polished styles,” said Kristen Classi-Zummo, apparel industry advisor at Circana, in a presentation at Kingpins New York . However, she added, “There is a big opportunity for denim to come back and steal share.”
One segment of the denim market that is outperforming peers are designer and premium brands, such as Agolde, Frame and Mother. While all women’s denim is down 8 percent year to date, premium labels have seen 7 percent growth. Partly responsible for this disparity is designer and premium brands’ quicker shift away from skinnies and slim fits. In Spring 2021, high-end denim was on par with mass brands with roughly 40 percent of sales coming from skinny jeans. Today, skinny and slim cuts still account for about a quarter of mass brands’ sales, while only making up about 9 percent of premium labels’ revenues.
Complicating inventory planning is the sheer variety of styles that are prevalent today. Whereas one silhouette used to dominate trends—such as the low-rise skinny popular in the mid 2000s—now Circana has identified 60 different combinations of rises and leg fits that drive sales volumes. At the top of the list for women’s denim sales volume right now are straight leg jeans with a high or mid rise. “While we’re seeing this offers an opportunity for consumers to personalize their style, as a vendor, as a brand, it can make for a confusing and chaotic assortment,” said Classi-Zummo.
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Companies should consider what is right for their customer and look at the full picture when it comes to sales data to help them plan, Classi-Zummo noted. For instance, cargo jeans have had a massive 500 percent increase in 2024, but they are just 2 percent of the market. Similarly, lower rises are getting a lot of media attention due to celebrity buy-in to the trend, but low rise represents just 1 percent of the market and it has declined 17 percent in 2024. “It’s really important to look at the data as a tool to empower your decision-making,” she said. “Just looking at the headlines alone is not enough. Trends, what’s going to drive growth, absolutely can change when you zero in uncertain markets.”
Another data point for companies to consider as they plan their denim assortment is footwear trends, since shoes and pants need to play well together in outfits. Ballerinas have grown 13 percent so far this year, loafers and driving shoes are up 7 percent and lifestyle sneakers are also seeing 7 percent year-over-year growth. For denim brands, footwear could dictate inseam lengths or help them communicate styling suggestions to consumers.
High shaft boots and skinny jeans—frequently worn together in the past—have both been on a downward trajectory in the past couple years, but this year there are hints of a return of taller boots, which could cause a skinny jean resurgence or lead consumers to pair boots with skirts.
“We know that these trends are having a halo impact, these categories are having an impact on one another,” said Classi-Zummo. “Looking outside of denim and understanding the growth in footwear, the growth in tops, can help you make more educated, more smart decisions on your business.”
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