The U.S. women's gymnastics team entered the 2021 Tokyo Olympics hoping to earn its third consecutive gold medal. Instead, the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) bested them by less than two points to give Team USA the silver.
Three years later, the United States is back in Paris hoping to regain its gold standard. This time, they won't have to go through the ROC, as Russia has been barred from competing in the 2024 Olympics .
Still, Team USA will face tough competition on the women's side. Some of the world's biggest stars like Rebeca Andrade, Nina Derwael, and Qiu Qiyuan will be hoping to lead their countries to glory and big wins against the U.S.'s top competitors.
Simone Biles and Co. should be ready to challenge the world's best at every step. The squad is Team USA's most experienced since 1952, so the Americans should have a good chance to regain gold in the team competition while Biles looks to earn as many medals as possible in the individual disciplines.
Sporting News is breaking down the top contenders to win the team competition and individual events in women's gymnastics at the 2024 Olympics. Here's a look at the favorites on each apparatus and the competitors to know as each vies for gold medals.
MORE: Meet the full roster for Team USA at 2024 Olympics, from Simone Biles to Hezly Rivera
Who will win Olympics gymnastics?
Team Competition
- Favorite : USA
- Contenders : Brazil, China, Italy
Team USA has the best all-around gymnast in the world (Simone Biles) and the reigning Olympic gold medalist (Suni Lee) on its roster. The U.S. women's gymnastics team has also earned a silver medal or better at every Olympics since 2004, so fans should feel comfortable expecting a top-two finish if all goes well.
Russia, who beat the United States under their ROC banner at Tokyo 2021, is not around to challenge Team USA in this year's Olympics. That will further establish the Americans as the favorites in women's gymnastics.
Brazil represents the team with the best shot to unseat Team USA. Brazil is led by 2022 all-around world champion Rebeca Andrade, who should — at a minimum — challenge for a medal in several events. If all goes well, she can give Brazil a high floor and make them hard to beat.
China is another team with plenty of potential while Italy is the reigning European champions, so those will be the other teams to watch. Still, so long as Biles and Lee can stay healthy and avoid slip-ups, Team USA should have a great shot to reclaim the gold medal.
All-Around
- Favorite : Simone Biles (USA)
- Contenders : Rebeca Andrade (Brazil), Qiu Qiyuan (China), Suni Lee (USA), Jordan Chiles (USA)
Biles is arguably the greatest gymnast of all time and took home the all-around gold medal in Rio back in 2016. Things didn't go as well for her in Tokyo, as she developed a case of the "twisties" during the Olympics, but she has bounced back nicely since then.
Biles posted a 58.399 at the 2023 World Championships, winning by 1.633 points over Rebeca Andrade. That margin is a solid one in gymnastics, and that came despite Biles losing 0.5 points for a fall during her vault.
With another strong showing, Biles will be hard for anyone to beat. Andrade's well-rounded skill set makes her the biggest threat to do so, and rising star Qiu Qiyuan has the ceiling on the bars and beam to at least get within striking distance.
Lee and Chiles would represent Biles' biggest internal threats, but because of the two-per-country rule for each event final, only one will make it through if Biles stays healthy and dominates. Lee is the reigning all-around Olympic gold medalist, so she is favored to edge out Chiles. At the same time, expecting Lee to repeat after battling kidney disease to make it to the Olympics is a big ask, so if she can't do it, Chiles may be positioned for a podium run.
MORE: How Suni Lee overcame kidney disease to make U.S. Olympic team
Vault
- Favorite : Simone Biles (USA)
- Contenders : Rebeca Andrade (Brazil), Yeo Seojeong (South Korea), Alexa Moreno (Mexico), Jade Carey (USA), Jordan Chiles (USA)
This is another event that the 4-8 Biles is expected to dominate. She scored 14.549 on her vault and earned a silver medal at the 2023 World Championships despite falling during her attempt. That speaks to the American's high-end difficulty score (D score) that pushes her ceiling well past that of other contenders.
Andrade's 14.750 was enough to beat Biles in Antwerp, and it should indicate that she might be able to challenge Biles in Paris. Granted, Andrade will need to have a near-perfect execution score (E score) to get within striking distance, but if Simone slips again, Andrade may find her way to another gold.
Seojeong may also be able to push Biles. Like Biles, the South Korean has an eponymous skill. Seojeong might not beat Biles even with a perfect landing, but she should be able to push Andrade for silver at the very least. The same can be said of Moreno, who finished fourth on the vault at the World Championships with a 14.166.
Once again, the battle between two Americans for a spot in the final will be fun to watch. The vault is one of Carey's best events, and she was the world champion on that apparatus in 2022. She had an issue with it during the 2021 Olympics, so perhaps she will redeem herself here. If not, Chiles may swoop in and challenge for silver.
Uneven bars
- Favorite : Suni Lee (USA)
- Contenders : Nina Derwael (Belgium), Qiu Qiyuan (China), Kaylia Nemour (Algeria), Simone Biles (USA)
Biles may be favored to win most events at the 2024 Olympics, but Lee is an uneven bars specialist with a high D score. If she can do her full routine — a slight question mark considering she was off the apparatus for a while dealing with her kidney issue — she should challenge for a spot on the podium, just as she did in Tokyo.
Derwael is the reigning uneven bars Olympic gold medalist, so she can't be counted out either. The Belgian star has been sidelined at times in recent years due to injury, so her form will bear watching, but at her ceiling, she is a bars specialist who can thrive.
While Derwael is proven on the Olympic stage, Qiyuan took home the gold medal on the apparatus at the 2023 World Championships with a 15.100. A repeat of that could be enough to put her over the top. The same can be said of Nemour, who earned silver in 2023 with a strong score of 15.033.
Don't count Biles out, either. She has the ability needed to sweep the gold medals in Paris. It's just a matter of whether she has a small slip-up in any event that allows another gymnast to overtake her.
MORE: Why USA gymnastics chose Hezly Rivera over Joscelyn Roberson, Leanne Wong
Balance beam
- Favorite : None
- Contenders : Simone Biles (USA), Suni Lee (USA), Zhou Yaqin (China), Rebeca Andrade (Brazil)
Biles is going to face stiff competition on the beam. She won gold in Antwerp by just 0.100 points over Yaqin, and the 18-year-old gymnast seems likely to challenge Biles again in Paris.
Lee is also excellent on the beam and recently won gold at the Core Hydration Classic before taking silver at the U.S. Gymnastics Championships a few weeks later. She finished fifth among her peers during the Olympic trials, but that was with a small stumble. If she can stay on the beam, she can challenge Biles, who has had some shakier-than-normal beam routines in recent competitions.
Andrade represents a threat on this apparatus as well, so if you're looking for one event where Biles could be upset, this might be it. Things seem pretty wide open on the beam.
Floor exercises
- Favorite : Simone Biles (USA)
- Contenders : Rebeca Andrade (Brazil), Flavia Saraiva (Brazil), Jordan Chiles (USA), Jade Carey (USA)
Another event, another spot in which Biles is favored. It's easy to understand why.
At the World Championships, Biles' D score on the floor was 6.700. No other gymnast had a score higher than 6.100. That gives her a 0.600 advantage out of the chute and gives her a bit more room for error than her peers.
That's not to say that Biles is unbeatable. If she steps out of bounds or has any sort of fall, that could allow Andrade or Saraiva — the silver and bronze medalists respectively in Antwerp — a chance to overtake her.
Carey or Chiles could also push Biles, depending on whether either qualifies. Carey won gold on the floor in Tokyo, so she should be a threat to medal if she can outperform Chiles in qualifying.
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