Olympics basketball predictions 2024: Using AI to pick upsets, Team USA's path, medal winners & more

Team USA is a heavy favorite to win gold in the 2024 Olympics according to the betting markets , but it might not be a total cakewalk. They barely squeaked by South Sudan and Germany in preliminary games, and they're coming off a disappointing fourth-place finish in last summer's FIBA Basketball World Cup.

Most experts will still pick Team USA to emerge victorious, but what does artificial intelligence think? We enlisted Meta AI, created by Facebook, to see what this powerful tool predicts will happen this summer.

After some back-and-forth conversation, here is how Meta AI responded to prompts about each group winner, what would happen in the knockout stage of the tournament and which teams would medal.

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Olympics basketball predictions 2024

Group stage

Group A winners: Canada, Greece

Group A is this year's Group of Death, featuring powerhouses in Australia, Canada, Spain and Greece. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the stars here who will be forced to go head-to-head. There are loads of NBA players scattered throughout these rosters.

All four teams are very strong, but Meta was confident in picking its two winners. Canada was its favorite, followed closely by Greece.

Meta cites Canada's depth and balance, along with the best backcourt in the tournament in Jamal Murray and SGA. Meta feels that Giannis will carry Greece to a runner-up finish. It also likes Greece's strong defensive presence and veteran point guard Nick Calathes to help provide support.

Group B winners: Germany, France

Group B is made up of France, Germany, Japan and Brazil. Germany and France are both heavy favorites to come out of this field, and Meta didn't predict any major upsets here.

Meta likes that Germany is the reigning FIBA World Cup champion and has a proven international team. It picked France to advance because of its status as the host nation and a strong team containing veterans like Nicolas Batum and Evan Fournier along with young talent in Victor Wembanyama.

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Group C winners: USA, Serbia

Group C contains Serbia, South Sudan, Puerto Rico and Team USA.

This is the group that is most likely to go chalk. USA is the favorite in the tournament, while Serbia is universally considered a top-four team behind Nikola Jokic. Puerto Rico and South Sudan are among the weakest teams in the tournament.

Meta believes that Team USA has too much depth to ignore and will dominate the Group Stage games. Serbia has what Meta believes is the best player in the tournament with Jokic and good team dynamics, making them a second-place finisher in the group.

Two additional teams: Brazil, Spain

The remaining two teams with the best record make up the last two spots in the knockout round. According to Meta's picks, this leaves Australia, Spain, Japan, Brazil, South Sudan and Puerto Rico vying for those final spots.

Meta believes that Brazil and Spain will emerge to advance into the knockout round.

The Brazil pick is somewhat of an upset selection, but Meta is confident in how well they have performed in international competitions. It also likes that Brazil is in an easier group than other teams, which should boost its record.

Meta likes Spain's wealth of experience in international tournaments, along with talented NBA players in Santi Aldama, Lorenzo Brown, Willy Hernangomez and Juancho Hernangomez.

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Knockout stage

Seeding to begin knockout stage

Here's how Meta has the top eight seeds shaping out:

1. USA (Group C winner)
2. Germany (Group B winner)
3. Canada (Group A winner)
4. France (Group B runner-up)
5. Serbia (Group C runner-up)
6. Greece (Group A runner-up)
7. Spain (Best third-place team)
8. Brazil (Second-best third-place team)

Quarterfinals teams: USA, Germany, Canada, Serbia

Team USA should have an easy time dispatching Brazil in the 1 vs. 8 matchup. Meta also has favorites Germany and Canada over Greece and Spain, respectively.

Meta believes that the closest matchup will be Serbia vs. France. While France has twin towers in Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert, they lost a preliminary game to Serbia 79-67 earlier in the summer. They had no answers for Jokic.

That two-big defensive strategy was key in Gobert's Wolves knocking Jokic's Nuggets out of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, so a repeat duel would be must-watch TV.

Finals teams: USA, Germany

Meta likes Team USA defeating Serbia due to the unstoppable trio of LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Steve Kerr has experience coaching loaded rosters, and the roster appears to have great chemistry.

Meta like Germany beating Canada on the other side of the bracket due to the strong guard play of Dennis Schroder, who has been terrific in international play, and Franz Wagner.

Canada did take third place in last summer's FIBA World Cup, but that was their first real taste of international success. Meta believes more in the veteran Germany team, who won that tournament and also took third in the Eurobasket 2022 tournament.

Gold medal winner: USA

Silver medal winner: Germany

Bronze medal winner: Serbia

Meta likes Team USA beating Germany in the gold medal game due to a significant advantage in athleticism and speed, allowing them to dominate in transition and defensive situations. That transition advantage has been key in previous international tournaments for Team USA and Kerr tried to lean into it when coaching last summer.

Meta likes the depth of experience that Team USA has in high-pressure games as well. So many of the players on the roster have won NBA championships and Olympic gold already.

Meta predicts a snoozer in this one, arguing that Schroder will not be able to contain Curry. That's another good guess — Schroder is just 6-10 lifetime against Curry in NBA games, per Statmuse . Meta sets a high final score of 95-80.

The bronze medal game features Serbia vs. Canada. Meta believes that Serbia will win due to Jokic being the best player on the floor, and Canada not having the size to match up with him.

This could be where Team Canada suffers from not having Zach Edey on the roster. Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell and Khem Birch will be at a size disadvantage against some of the bigger teams in the tournament.

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When does the Olympic Basketball begin?

The 2024 Olympic Basketball tournament will begin on Saturday, July 27, with Australia and Spain opening proceedings.

The Group Stage will run until Saturday, Aug. 3, finishing with Serbia against South Sudan.

The quarterfinals will take place two days later, on Aug. 6, followed by the semifinals on August 8. Teams will compete for bronze, silver and gold on Aug. 10.