From drought to rain, Wisconsin had biggest one-year flip-flop from last June to this one

It's been an exceptionally soggy summer in Wisconsin, and all the rain may have washed away memories of what was happening last year.

It could not have been more different.

This summer, we had the sixth-wettest June in Wisconsin history. Last summer, we had the fifth-driest June in state history. And that, according to state climatologist Steve Vavrus, is the biggest one-year precipitation flip-flop the state has ever seen from one June to the next.

More specifically, less than two inches of rain fell across the state in June 2023, intensifying a record-setting drought that appeared suddenly and scorched soils the rest of the summer.

This June, in contrast, Wisconsin averaged nearly seven inches of rain, including some deluges causing flooding and storm damage .

Because of climate change, such swings between extremes are expected to become more common . This one may have had more to do with natural variability in weather patterns, Vavrus said, but it could be something of a harbinger of what we could expect as the climate continues to warm.

Do the bouts of extreme rain and extreme drought cancel each other out, so to speak?

"Statistically, yes. But we're not statisticians, we're people who feel the impact of weather," Vavrus said. "It's just like being too cold one day and being too hot the next — does it mean you're comfortable? We had serious challenges with too little rainfall last summer. This summer, it's too much of a good thing."

Going from very dry to very wet within a year's time doesn't have too many lasting consequences, the way it would within a shorter timeframe. Farmers, for example, largely get to wipe their slate clean with each new growing season, Vavrus said.

But these changes do mean they have to be prepared for anything.

"If you know you'll get too much rain, you can plan for a flood. If you know you'll be too dry, you can plan for a drought. If you have to plan for both," he said, "that's twice as challenging."

The biggest precipitation flip-flop recorded in Wisconsin happened between September 1965 and September 1966, Vavrus said. More than seven and a half inches of rain fell the first year, and just shy of two inches the next. July and August have also had similarly large flip-flops.

June is typically Wisconsin's wettest month , so this year, even though rain fell in excess, it's closer to the norm than last year, Vavrus said. In general, all seasons have become wetter. The state's average precipitation increased 17% since 1950, according to a 2021 report from the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts .

Scientists are less confident about what will happen to Wisconsin's summer rainfall in the future, Vavrus said, though it's likely that winters and springs will become wetter. Drier summers could pose a problem because of how much of the state's agriculture and tourism industries depend on water, he said — so more research is needed to figure out what might be in store.

More: Last summer, we had drought conditions. Now, we're stuck in a pattern of above normal rain.

More: Wisconsin is finally drought-free after a year. Here's what that means for the state.

Madeline Heim is a Report for America corps reporter who writes about environmental issues in the Mississippi River watershed and across Wisconsin. Contact her at 920-996-7266 or mheim@gannett.com .

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: From drought to rain, Wisconsin had biggest one-year flip-flop from last June to this one