Why are gas prices going up? They're actually below average for July and trending down

While gas prices might seem high to some drivers in Iowa, they are declining from earlier this year and compared to last year.

Gas prices are starting to decline since springtime peaks, and as fall nears, they could reach below $3 a gallon.

How high are gas prices in Iowa right now?

On average, Iowans are paying $3.28 at the pump, according to AAA reports on Thursday . This is less than the national average of $3.52, which is common for Iowa. Counties in northeastern Iowa are paying the most for gas. Areas around Dubuque County are paying as much as 10 cents more than the statewide average.

"We are looking for prices to moderately decline later this fall," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy. "That's kind of in line with those seasonal trends."

While each county varies, more southeastern counties reported prices lower than $3.23 a gallon. Henry County's average gas prices are the lowest at $2.96

"Overall, prices are fairly tamed right now," De Haan said. "Prices are quite a bit lower than what they were in spring."

How do Polk County gas prices compare to the rest of the state?

Gas in Polk County averages $3.25 per gallon, 3 cents less than the state average. The only surrounding county that has cheaper gas than Polk is Boone County with an average of $3.19. Des Moines residents may noticed gas has gone up since June. There was a period where fuel prices fell before $3 a gallon, De Haan said.

"The reason why we are a bit higher now than what we were in June is because oil prices are a bit higher than what they were in June," De Haan said. "Although I will say oil prices now for the last week, week and a half, are on a bit of a decline."

How high have gas prices been in Iowa this summer?

Iowa's average gas price is cheaper than the springtime peak of $3.37 in April. This time last year, fuel was $3.45 at the pump in Iowa, according to AAA . Prices in Iowa have hovered between $3.15 and $3.30 a gallon since May.

Of course, the prices could always spike due to weather, especially with hurricane season underway.

"It's been a fairly uneventful summer thus far," De Haan said. "Typically, gas prices do tend to trend lower over the summer because supply builds up June into July and August. Every day refineries are generally producing more than demand."

When will gas prices drop?

While fuel prices do follow a trend, external factors can impact whether they rise or fall regardless of the time of year. Hurricane season could be a wild card for gas prices as weather events often are.

"By the end of the year, I would expect a lot more prices under the $3 a gallon mark," De Haan said. "It has everything to do with the seasons and if there are no hurricanes, we could see a lot more prices before $3 a gallon as we get into months like October and November."

Why are gas prices so high? Pandemic-era comparisons throw off perceptions, expert says

Complaints about high gas prices can come out-of-date price comparisons.

"People like to make the comparison that prior to the Biden Administration that prices were often in the $2 a gallon range, but that doesn't account for the changed world post-Covid," De Haan said. "Russia is still fighting a war in Ukraine which is impeding the normal flow of oil."

Even though prices might feel high, compared to seasonal prices they are actually lower than average have been in July.

Prices typically peak in the spring, not in the summer. Refinery maintenance usually happens in the springtime, which can shorten gas supplies.

"What we are seeing right now is that prices are moderately lower than they have been," De Haan said.

Politics have also played a role, De Haan said.

"A lot of Republican talking points have mentioned gas prices as a way to get their base going and energize their base," De Haan said. "Because they are frustrated and want to blame the president for gas prices. Even though the president has very minimal control over that."

If prices do indeed drop in the fall, around the election, it will have nothing to do with the political party in control, he said.

"It has everything to do with the fact that Americans, like Iowans, people don't drive as much in the winter and the fall. Think of what's happening now. People are out motorcycling, they are taking out RVs, getting the boat in the lake. And that doesn't happen as often in the color weather."

Kate Kealey is a general assignment reporter for the Des Moines Register. Reach her at kkealey@registermedia.com or follow her on Twitter at @ Kkealey17 .

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Why are gas prices going up? They're actually below average for July and trending down