Women aren’t certain Harris can beat Trump — but say they will vote for her anyway

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A new 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll finds that Americans overwhelmingly agree with President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race — and that the majority agree with his decision to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place. Eighty-seven percent of Americans said they were in favor of Biden’s decision to drop out, with 53 percent in favor of his endorsement. Women voiced stronger support for the endorsement than men, 58 percent to 48 percent.

But as voters face the prospect of a close presidential race, many — particularly women and people of color — are also questioning whether the United States is ready for a woman of color to be president or for two women on the ticket.

American politics entered uncharted territory following Biden’s decision ; the president shared a letter announcing his exit from the race on social media the afternoon of July 21. Shortly after the announcement, he endorsed Harris, who is the first woman, first Black American and first Indian American to hold the office. If elected president, she would once again break barriers.

Biden faced mounting pressure from within the Democratic Party to exit the race after a faltering performance in his first debate against former President Donald Trump on June 27. A growing cast of Democratic members of Congress and party leaders publicly called on him to give up on his reelection bid and, in private meetings, emphasized to the president that leaving the race was necessary to help bolster Democrats’ chances of winning in November.

According to the 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll, opinions on the impact of Biden’s choice were less decisive: 45 percent of Americans said stepping aside would help Democrats, 29 percent said it would help Republicans and 24 percent didn’t believe his exit would have any particular impact on the outcome of the presidential election.

However, when sliced along party lines, the distinctions were clear. While roughly eight in 10 Democrats think Biden’s decision will help the Democratic Party, nearly half of Republicans think it will help their party.

His move, according to the poll, would put the election in a dead heat if it were held today: 39 percent of Americans said they would vote for former President Donald Trump and 38 percent said they would vote for Harris.

There were notable differences in how gender impacted these choices, though: 45 percent of men said they would vote for Trump and 34 percent said they would vote for Harris. Among women, 42 percent said they would vote for Harris and 33 percent said they would vote for Trump.

The poll was conducted online by SurveyMonkey from July 22 to July 24, among a national sample of 5,265 adults. Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. The modeled error estimate is ±1.5 percentage points.

Within minutes of Biden’s announcement, Democrats began organizing around Harris. State party offices pledged delegates, notable members of the Democratic Party establishment piled on additional endorsements and grassroots organizers went full throttle to raise funds and mobilize voters on Harris’ behalf. Perhaps the most remarkable moment came on Sunday night, when 44,000 Black women logged into the Win With Black Women weekly call on Zoom. By Monday morning, they had raised $1.6 million for Harris — and spurred women of other identity groups to start their own organizing calls. Harris’ campaign netted over $81 million in donations total within the first 24 hours and secured enough delegates to formally clinch the Democratic nomination.

The 19th/SurveyMonkey poll showed, however, that numbers shifted when Americans were asked about what they thought the outcome of the election would be if Harris were to be formally nominated as the Democratic candidate, an all-but-guaranteed scenario. Fifty-six percent of Americans said they think Trump would win and 40 percent said they think Harris would win.

In other words, voters are willing to back Harris despite uncertainty whether she can win.

As energy around Harris’s candidacy has spiked this week — one of its most viral moments came when pop star Charlie xcx declared, “kamala IS brat” — so have questions about electability and a surge of racist and misogynistic disinformation about her.

Also, people were more inclined to think that Harris’ race and heritage as a Black woman of Indian descent would help her (32 percent of respondents) than hurt her (24 percent). However, people of color were more likely to think that Harris’ race would hurt her chances of becoming president, including 32 percent of Black Americans.

White Democrats are much more likely to think Harris’ racial background would hurt her in the race (38 percent) compared with White Republicans (9 percent). Similar shares agreed that her race would be a boon.

Less than one week into her presumed nomination, attention has turned to the question of whom Harris will choose as her running mate . There has been a lot of conversation around the potential of a two-woman ticket , which would most likely take the form of Harris tapping Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer , a forceful champion of reproductive rights, for the job. Forty-two percent of Americans said, however, that having a woman as a running mate would impede Harris’s chances of winning; 16 percent said this would help her odds.

According to the 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll, opinions were split when it comes to whether Harris’ gender helps or hurts her candidacy: 31 percent of Americans said being a woman would help her chances of becoming president while 33 percent said it would hurt. Women were slightly more likely than men to think that Harris’ gender would hurt her candidacy — 35 percent to 31 percent.

Recent reporting on the issue suggests that Harris is more inclined to choose a man. And, according to the 19th News/SurveyMonkeypoll, 40 percent of Americans said Harris would have a better chance of winning the presidency if she were to pick a White man as her running mate, compared with only 11 percent who said that picking a White man would worsen her chances.