Michigan's Thumb is red, but St. Clair County hasn't always voted in a Republican for president

PORT HURON — The prevailing expectation in the region might be that with results in big elections, Michigan’s Thumb bleeds red.

The vast majority of local partisan seats are held by Republicans, and so are state and federal representatives.

But for much of the last several decades, St. Clair County’s local presidential voting totals — with a few exceptions — have at times reflected the national results favoring both the GOP and Democrats.

Now, this year, with a higher number of Democratic candidates in a couple of state and local races, how the current race for U.S. president will be reflected in local voting results remains unclear, especially in the wake of a host of unprecedented events catching national headlines — from criminal convictions in court and an assassination attempt against former Republican President Donald Trump to President Joe Biden’s stepping aside as the Democratic nominee.

Jim Frank, who chairs St. Clair County Democrats, said they generally aren’t in the business of predicting larger races, focusing more on voter turnout closer to November.

Still, in an interview on Wednesday, he admitted there was a sense that Vice President Kamala Harris emerging at the head of the Democratic ticket may reinvigorate voters to the polls who may have otherwise stayed home under Biden.

“I’m really puzzled as to why voters in St. Clair County have shifted to a party whose interests for the most part are not aligned with working-class voters,” Frank said, citing Trump’s administration and decisions like tax breaks skewed to favor wealthier Americans. “I think a lot of it is related to single-issue voting. I think abortion is one of those issues. It’s resulted in the voters of St. Clair County choosing someone else to vote for. But they voted for (Barack) Obama in 2008.

"I think mostly, we have people who are voting a lot more based on emotion, and I think that’s probably related to the internet and things like that rather than acts. So, I think messaging has really played a huge role, and I think maybe the Republicans have done a better job of messaging to control the county.”

Outside Thursday's St. Clair County Board of Commissioners meeting, in comments colored by discussion over a proposed Algonac brownfield plan, Mike Grover, a local chairperson for We the County, and wife Lynn Grover, treasurer for the county's Republican Party executive board, reflected on living in a conservative congressional district amid a major U.S. presidential race.

Although they said don't know many people who would admit to being Democrats, elements of what they shared reflected what Frank emphasized: With increasingly higher numbers turning out in the last two presidential elections, they just want to get people to the polls.

"That's what we're hoping for. That's what we're pushing for, educating for that," Lynn said. Mike chimed in, "Too big to rig."

The county GOP overall was early in posting its endorsement of Trump last March. As the presidential election inches closer, however, Mike said the climate has been impacted by a "tremendous amount of misinformation ... on both sides" where it seemed like voters were relying more on talking points paroted on broadcast TV than "dealing in reality."

"They’re going along to get along almost. They don’t have their own opinions," he said. "People should be able to see, feel. I know that Trump’s going to say, it’s going to be one of the things he says over and over again, ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’”

How has the area voted historically for president?

When asked, Frank recalled how much Port Huron had changed since he first moved to the area in 1999. Often, though, the city still proves to be a Democratic pocket in a Republican county.

County Commissioner Lisa Beedon has served as the county board’s only Democrat for the last four years, replacing Howard Heidemann who’d been in the position the previous 18. She has a primary challenger Aug. 6 who has admitted his beliefs don't always align with Democrats, calling himself a centrist whose beliefs against big government spurred support for Trump over Biden.

In looking at local presidential results, the last election in 2020 may be a good example to evaluate what impact Port Huron plays with the county’s results overall.

In 2020, the city of Port Huron leaned more Democratic, voting for Joe Biden over Trump 6,357-6,165 or by a 192-vote margin. The city also voted a Democratic straight ticket overall by 3,455-3,418 or a 27-vote margin. Additionally, the margin of Beedon's first county win over a Republican opponent was larger by a 835-vote margine.

The city leans a little left. That narrow margin, however, hardly impacted the county's overall presidential results favoring Trump over Biden 59,186-31,363.

In 2016, the area voted 49,051-24,553 for Trump over Hilary Clinton, and then, 39,271-33,983 for Mitt Romney over Obama in 2012.

Much earlier in local voting history, there were periods the county stood apart from national results, in favor of Republican presidential candidates.

In 1976, Republican Gerald Ford won in both St. Clair and Sanilac counties by a few thousand votes, though Jimmy Carter won the national popular vote and the presidency.

The tradition held up in 1992, when George W.H. Bush won the favor of Blue Water voters — more in Sanilac than St. Clair County — despite Bill Clinton’s first win nationally.

For much of the rest of the last century, St. Clair County was as Republican as expected.

However, with reflecting national elections also arose as anomalies.

Clinton would go on to win by a 6,000-vote margin in St. Clair County over Republican Bob Dole in 1996.

After John McCain conceded in November 2008, the Times Herald reported early numbers that St. Clair County had supported Obama by more than 2,000 votes with 50.5% of the local vote against McCain’s 47.4%.

Contact reporter Jackie Smith at (810) 989-6270 or jssmith@gannett.com .

This article originally appeared on Port Huron Times Herald: Michigan's Thumb is red, but St. Clair County hasn't always voted in a Republican for president