UFC 304 Best Bets

UFC 304 Best Bets

The UFC is headed to Manchester, England, for UFC 304. The card features a large portion of the country’s premier talent. This includes the nation’s champions, Leon Edwards and Tom Aspinall. The promotion filled out the rest of the card with solid matches as well. Thankfully, that creates a few solid betting opportunities. Here are three of the best bets you can make for UFC 304.

*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 1:30 p.m. on Friday, July 26. *

King Green -115

The first bet for UFC 304 is for King (former Bobby) Green to defeat Paddy Pimblett. The bout is closely lined as Green sits at -115 while Pimblett is -105.

This bet comes with a clear risk. Green, 37, has been finished in recent fights. At this point in his career, his durability is clearly on the decline. Green needs to outstrike his opponent while avoiding damaging strikes to win this fight. Thankfully, he is capable of that.

In my opinion, Pimblett is one of the most overrated fighters on the UFC roster. This is mainly because of his striking defense. Pimblett keeps his chin up in the air and is constantly there to be hit. The only reason he has not been knocked out is because his chin is strong. The problem is that Green should be able to take advantage of this flaw and land at a high clip.

Pimblett does have the power and submission upside to finish this fight. This would be a bigger concern if his cardio was better. The majority of his finish upside will be early in this fight. If he can’t land the finish, Green will have success in the later rounds.

Ultimately, I prefer to bet on Green because he will throw at a high pace for three rounds against a fighter with serious defensive flaws. At -115, it is one of my favorite bets for UFC 304.

Manel Kape +145

The second bet for UFC 304 is for Manel Kape to beat Muhammad Mokaev. The oddsmakers have Kape lined as a +145 underdog while Mokaev is a -175 favorite.

Kape and Mokaev are a very different points in their careers. Kape is a 30-year-old with a good amount of experience against top-tier competition. Mokaev is a 23-year-old who has improvements to make . I would much rather take the fighters further along in their development.

In the skills, Kape is a much more dangerous fighter with a lot of finish potential. In striking exchange, he will be live for a finish. Kape is quick and powerful. Plus, he can time shots and land big strikes. This should allow him to hurt Mokaev at any given moment.

Mokaev can counter Kape’s impressive striking skills with his grappling. The problem is that he will need to consistently land takedowns and rack up a lot of control time. If Mokaev’s takedowns do not turn into several minutes of control, he could tire himself out as he repeatedly attempts takedowns. It does not help that Kape has solid defensive grappling.

I have a hard time seeing Mokaev rack up enough control time to keep himself safe from the striking of Kape. That pushes me to bet on Kape at UFC 304.

Jake Hadley +180

The final bet for UFC 304 is for Jake Hadley to beat Caolan Loughran. Hadley is a +180 underdog while Loughran is a -218 favorite.

Loughran is the type of favorite I am interested in fading. I do not think he is a bad fighter, but his current UFC record is 1-1. That one win came against Angel Pacheco. That is not impressive considering Pacheco earned a UFC contract because he took a good beating on Dana White’s Contender Series . On the other hand, Hadley has had a mixed run in the promotion as he has gone 2-3.

The one massive factor in this fight is that Hadley is moving up from flyweight to bantamweight. The betting line makes it seem like that is a bad move, but I disagree. Hadley was massive for the flyweight division and the move to bantamweight stopped his brutal weight cut. A decent portion of this bet is an educated guess that Hadley will perform better at the higher weight.

In the skills, Hadley has shown some decent boxing. On the feet, he throws some good straight punches, his kicks are nice, and he will get aggressive with hooks. On the ground, his wrestling is not great, but he has sick submissions and is live to make his opponent tap.

Loughran has solid boxing as well. The difference is that he is more likely to leave his fundamentals behind to get wild. If Loughran focuses on tight boxing combos he does well. The issues arise when he starts to swing massive shots. Loughran also has some offensive wrestling chops.

I am expecting the grappling to cancel out and create a striking matchup. In that type of fight, it is probably close. I lean toward Hadley because he will be quicker and longer. Regardless, I think this is a close fight. In my opinion, this line should be much tighter. As a result, I think Hadley at +180 is a strong bet for UFC 304.

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