Why French authorities fear Russia may attempt to disrupt Paris Olympics

Just hours before the Olympic opening ceremony, saboteurs launched a coordinated arson attack on French train lines. It stranded nearly a million travelers and sparked even more concerns about potential threats to the games which are being protected by unprecedented security. Nick Schifrin discussed more with Javed Ali.

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Amna Nawaz: Just hours before the Olympics Opening Ceremony, saboteurs launched a coordinated arson attack on French train lines.

Geoff Bennett: It stranded nearly a million travelers and sparked even more concerns about potential threats to the Games, which are being protected by unprecedented security.

Nick Schifrin starts our coverage.

Nick Schifrin: In Paris train stations this morning, crowds in confusion after coordinated attacks on France’s high-speed rail lines.

The overnight sabotage severed signaling cables that controlled the northbound, westbound and eastbound lines. A fourth attack on the southbound line was foiled.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said the perpetrators knew what they were doing.

Gabriel Attal, Prime Minister of France (through interpreter): This operation has been prepared, coordinated and key points have been targeted, which shows a certain knowledge of the network in order to know where to hit.

Nick Schifrin: French officials haven’t specified a suspect, but acknowledge the Games face threats; 45,000 police, 18,000 soldiers and 18,000 security contractors have created a huge security perimeter and closed Paris’ airspace within 90 miles.

In April, French President Emmanuel Macron inaugurated the aquatic center and warned of one possible perpetrator, Russia.

Emmanuel Macron, French President (through interpreter): I have no doubt, yes, I have no doubt, including in informational terms. Every, day it fuels rumors about the fact that we could not do this or that, so it would be a risk.

Nick Schifrin: This week, France arrested a Russian national for planning to — quote — “destabilize the Olympics,” identified as a Le Cordon Bleu trained Russian intelligence officer by an investigation of The Insider, Le Monde, and Der Spiegel.

AI-generated man: Hi, everyone. It’s me, Tom Cruise, the actor.

Nick Schifrin: Russia’s also launched a campaign of disinformation.

Man: I will shed some light on the venal executives of the International Olympic Committee.

Nick Schifrin: Microsoft accused a Russian influence actor of using artificial intelligence to create a fake movie to disparage the IOC.

Microsoft also found a Russian-created fake CIA video warning of a high terror risk and a fake Hamas video that Microsoft also said Russia created. But Russia’s efforts expand beyond France because of European support for Ukraine, said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary-General: We have seen a pattern, a Russian campaign organized by the security services, to conduct hostile actions against NATO allies across the alliance.

Nick Schifrin: In Germany, that included a plot to assassinate the CEO of its largest weapons manufacturer and the arrest of two German Russians on suspicion of plotting sabotage attacks against U.S. bases.

Last weekend, Spanish police arrested what they called pro-Russian hackers for cyberattacks on members of NATO. French intelligence reportedly believe Russia’s behind coffins left at the base of the Eiffel Tower labeled French soldiers in Ukraine, as well as graffiti that defaced Paris’ Holocaust memorial.

And in March, British authorities expelled the Russian defense attache and restricted Russian diplomatic visas after a suspected arson attack on a Ukraine-linked business that then-Home Secretary James Cleverly called part of a pattern.

James Cleverly, Former Shadow Home Secretary, United Kingdom: These activities bear all the hallmarks of a deliberate campaign by Russia designed to bring the war home across Europe and to undermine our collective resolve to support Ukraine in its fight. It will not work.

Nick Schifrin: But the terrorism threat is real. In 2015, before Paris won the Games, Islamic State stormed sites across the city and killed more than 130.

And since this year’s ISIS-K attack that burned down a Moscow concert hall and killed more than 130, U.S. officials have warned that ISIS wants to attack Europe, a desire increased by the war in Gaza, said recently retired National Counterterrorism Center director Christine Abizaid.

Christine Abizaid, Former Director, National Counterterrorism Center: And so the energy in the system created by Gaza, the ability of an organization like ISIS to exploit that energy because of more sophisticated propaganda, because they have evolved their model to tap into that energy in a way that we haven’t seen in years, really raises a significant concern for us.

Nick Schifrin: The U.S. security coordination for the Olympics is led by the State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service, whose deputy director of major events coordination, Tim Ayers, told me today that while he couldn’t provide any details of today’s attacks — quote — “Working 2.5 years with the French, we have been with them since the get-go, and we have full confidence in their security plan.”

To discuss this more, I’m joined by Javed Ali, associate professor of public policy at the University of Michigan and a former official in the FBI and DHS and former senior director for counterterrorism on the National Security Council under President Trump.

Javed Ali, thanks very much. Welcome to the “News Hour.”

What do you make of this particular attack not on the Olympics, but certainly around the Olympics right before it starts?

Javed Ali, Former Homeland Security Department Official: Well, Nick, great to be with you.

And the attack from early today has some interesting features, obviously, deliberate sequence for multiple trains to be hit almost at the same time, but on the flip side, not designed apparently to kill people, and there’s no claim or responsibility either. So it’s hard to know definitively who did this.

And my speculation right now, this has caused more for a mass disruption than mass casualty terrorism.

Nick Schifrin: Clearly, a disruption, trying to send the message that, hey, we know where these train signals or these particular spots are in order to disrupt the system.

As our story laid out, the French authorities are being careful. They’re not pointing their finger at anyone, but we have had an accusation by Prime Minister Macron that Russia could attack the Games. And you have this environment in which Russia has launched multiple attacks in Europe.

So, therefore, could it be some kind of Russian intelligence, even cutout?

Javed Ali: So the Russian angle is definitely a strong one. And depending on how far back you stretch the timeline, Russia has been very aggressive on European soil both in the physical world and the virtual world for almost a decade.

Now, does this one attack sort of fit into that larger track record of these Russian-directed or -sponsored operations? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. But in going back to what Russia has done previously, they tend to be very aggressive and sometimes lethal in terms of actually trying to kill people.

Now, this doesn’t seem to have been designed to do that, but maybe this is a shot across the bow from the Russians to the West and Europe.

Nick Schifrin: And as our story points out, most of what we have seen from Russia in the last few months have been connected to Ukraine, whether it’s European officials who are helping create weapons for Ukraine or Ukrainians themselves across Europe.

Javed Ali: Those attacks, I think you can put in a different category because they do seem to have been designed to undercut support for the Ukrainian war effort or actually sort of limit the flow of weapons or arms to Ukraine.

But this doesn’t seem to track what that, seems to have sort of a different political calculus if it is the Russians. And, again, I’m not convinced that it is.

Nick Schifrin: And, finally, we saw an accusation by Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, blaming Iran.

Just to make sure, we don’t have any evidence of that yet.

Javed Ali: Not right now.

And, again, what would be the incentive for the Iranians to do something like this in France, right at the lead-up to the Olympics? It would seem counterproductive and work against their broader interests.

Nick Schifrin: Let’s zoom out.

As we heard from Christine Abizaid, the former National Counterterrorism Center director, talking about the larger threat from ISIS being higher today. We have seen ISIS attacks, of course, in Paris. We have seen more recent attacks in Moscow and Iran, fueled in part by the war in Gaza.

From your perspective, how high is the risk of ISIS terrorism today across the world?

Javed Ali: Well, the ISIS Khorasan threat within the broader ISIS sort of phenomenon is probably the most acute. And,

as you mentioned, Nick, we have seen these attacks in 2024 that have been highly lethal, highly destructive.

Nick Schifrin: Moscow and Iran are the biggest ones.

Javed Ali: Right.

But I believe — one of the reasons why I think the French security presence is so aggressive now is to prevent and/or deter any kind of ISIS-K-mask casualty attack. And for ISIS Khorasan to try to launch an attack like they pulled off earlier this year in Moscow and Iran would be very, very difficult.

It doesn’t mean they won’t try, but you would also — you need the human capital and the people to pull that off. But the French, I think, have taken that threat seriously, and that’s why we have seen so much security already arrayed, not only in Paris, but the surrounding area.

Nick Schifrin: This is an unprecedented level of security that the French have thrown at the Games, even more than previous Games, which every time we have an Olympics Games, it feels like we talk about unprecedented security.

How do you rate the French security apparatus?

Javed Ali: Well, having worked with the French during my career, I mean, a very professional, have tremendous capabilities on their own through their intelligence services, the law enforcement, the military side.

And we’re seeing that play out in the Olympics right now. But even to sort of compare it to past Olympics or what we try to do here in the U.S. when we have these large special events, you’re never going to have 100 percent security. There is always going to be, unfortunately, a vulnerability.

Then it’s a question of intent and capability for some malign actor to exploit that. Now, hopefully, nothing does happen. And, again, the French have been working on this for a couple of years hand in glove with other partners, including the United States, but there are probably still small gaps in that very, very significant security posture.

Nick Schifrin: And, finally, that U.S.-French cooperation.

Obviously, the intelligence services share information. You have got a lot of State Department and diplomatic coordination. How much does a French apparatus rely on U.S. intelligence, U.S. assistance when it comes to this kind of event?

Javed Ali: Well, the French are very capable on their own from their own intelligence capabilities. They have an excellent domestic service and a foreign service as well.

But if the U.S., let’s say, in the run-up to the Olympics had very specific threat information about threats to the Games, that would be passed automatically to the French, if they weren’t able to discern that on their own.

And I would have to imagine that’s going on in real time and will continue to go on throughout the course of the Olympics.

Nick Schifrin: Javed Ali, thank you very much.

Javed Ali: All right, thank you, Nick.