Old Farmer's Almanac predicts fall forecast. See what it says for North Jersey

For those eagerly anticipating a trip to the apple orchards and pumpkin patches this fall, don't forget a sweater as temperatures are predicted to be cooler than usual, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac.

The periodical released its annual fall forecast , and North Jersey residents are expected to see below average temperatures, while a large portion of states to the west, including Hawaii and even Alaska, are predicted to experience temperatures above the norm.

New Jersey appears to be split in three when it comes to predictions on rainfall amounts, with the majority of the state forecasted for average rainfall. Lower than average rainfall is predicted for Sussex County, with a sliver of Warren County, depicted with a small dot of red on the Almanac's map, denoting the area may see above average rainfall.

If the forecast holds true, areas that experience average temperatures and below average rainfall could see a beautiful array of fall foliage, the Almanac says, including the Northeastern states.

What are average fall temperature in North Jersey?

Here are the average monthly temperatures for the fall season, with data collected for 128 years, or between 1895 and 2023 by the Office of the State Climatologist at Rutgers University:

• September: 65.5 degrees
• October: 54.4 degrees
• November: 43.6 degrees
• December: 33.7 degrees

What does it all mean for fall foliage?

The Adirondack and Catskills in New York and the Poconos in Pennsylvania are among the Almanac's top places to experience vibrant fall foliage, although a beautiful array of red, orange and yellow leaves are bountiful in North Jersey.

In fact, an animated map of the predicted foliage progression shows leaves really beginning to start their transition by late September with peak across most of North and Central Jersey by the first week of October and past peak by late October and early November.

Most of New England will be at or near peak fall color as early as October 11 this year, which strays a bit from the usual peak of mid- to late October, the Almanac predicts. Weather and where you live will play a factor.

What are average fall rainfall amounts in North Jersey?

While much of nation will see below average precipitation, New Jersey is a mixed bag when it comes to what the Almanac is predicting.

Here are the average monthly rainfall amount for the fall season, with data again collected over the past 128 years by the Office of the State Climatologist at Rutgers University:

• September: 3.79 inches
• October: 3.57 inches
• November: 3.40 inches
• December: 3.80 inches

How accurate is Old Farmer's Almanac?

The oldest continuously published periodical in North America, founded in 1792 when George Washington was president, boasts an 80% accuracy on their weather reports overall.

Their accuracy rate over for the 2023-2024 winter forecast overall was 64%, a stark departure from their norm which they chalked up to "abnormal recent weather patterns." Precipitation estimates were about 83% accurate, the periodical said, with temperature estimates around 44% accurate. The Almanac's prediction of a warmer-than-normal temperature forecast for the East Coast was spot on, particularly for New Jersey, where it proved wet and warm . The periodical even nailed the timing of the region's first snowstorm in the second week of January.

The Almanac claims to use a "secret formula" to derive their weather forecast, leaning heavily on solar activity and patterns, meteorology and atmospheric science as well as historic trends and temperature averages.

Over the years, experts in the field of meteorology and atmospheric studies have criticized the Almanac's predictions, often telling readers to take it with a massive grain of salt. A study at the University of Illinois compared the Almanac's forecasts to actual weather data over a five-year period and concluded they were accurate only about 52% of the time .

But the Almanac has also had its supporters, with the Illinois study still calling the periodical a "remarkable piece of U.S. history," packed with planting recommendations and interesting, factual articles that has "something for everyone." The periodical even boasted in press materials they had 96% accuracy for its 2015 predictions of a "bleak and biting winter."

From an easy-to-peruse gardener's guide to growing plants, to planetary events or even some jokes or fun facts about animals, its no surprise there is still solid demand for the centuries-old publication. The title has 1.7 millions fans on Facebook , which has risen from 1.3 million since 2016. And the title's 2025 print edition is slated to be released on Aug. 27, 2025.

Email: lcomstock@njherald.com ; Twitter: @LoriComstockNJH or on Facebook .

This article originally appeared on New Jersey Herald: Old Farmer's Almanac predicts fall forecast. See what it says for North Jersey