FIFA punishment could knock Olympic champs out

The Olympic spying scandal around the Canadian women’s soccer team has now seen punishment from worldwide soccer governing body FIFA. That includes a six-point deduction that will likely knock the reigning gold medalists out of these Paris 2024 Olympics, plus a fine for Canada Soccer and year-long bans for head coach Bev Priestman, assistant coach Jasmine Mander, and analyst Joseph Lombardi. Here’s the key part of that, via CBC’s Devin Heroux:

The point deduction is particularly crucial here, as that’s likely to impact the actual competition at these Olympics. Only the two best teams from each of the three groups are guaranteed to advance to the knockout stage, with the two best third-place teams (determined first by points, then by goal differential, then goals for, then fair play points, then lots) also advancing . And the penalty here will make that tough for Canada.

The Canadians (eighth in the latest FIFA Women’s Rankings , from June) currently have three points. That has them tied with hosts France (ranked second) atop Group A. Canada’s points thus far come from a 2-1 win over New Zealand (the target of the particular spying from Lombardi that got caught , leading to an eight-month delayed sentence for him from the French justice system for violating drone operation laws) Thursday, and they’ll next face France Sunday.

It’s possible that Canada could win that match and their group finale (July 31 against Colombia) and still go through. The easiest scenario there is if Colombia and New Zealand tie Sunday and New Zealand also falls to France, which would see the French take the group with six points, the Canadians in second with three (nine minus the six-point penalty), and the other two teams with just one each.

Another version of the Canada nine points scenario would see Colombia or New Zealand getting an outright win Sunday, then losing their final match. That would see that team also finish with three points. Or, alternatively, France could lose to New Zealand as well, which would see the French on three points, and New Zealand on anywhere from six to four depending on their result against Colombia. If there is a tie for second, that goes to tiebreakers, which goes from goal differential to goals scored to head-to-head record to fair play points to lots. And it is possible that the loser there could advance as one of the best third-place teams.

There’s also a slight chance of Canada going through if they draw with France Sunday. If they beat Colombia, they end with seven pre-penalty points, or one actual point. If New Zealand and Colombia draw Sunday and then New Zealand falls to France, those teams would have one point as well. And that could see Canada possibly advance as either the second-place team or a top third-place team.

But the road to defending Olympic gold got a lot tougher for Canada after this penalty. There’s a good chance the Canadians won’t advance to the knockout stage at all. And if they somehow do, they’ll be in a much tougher seed than if they’d won the group.

And it’s fascinating to see the speed of this. Many sports cheating investigations, both at the Olympics and in professional sports leagues, take years to resolve. That sometimes sees results changed after the fact, but it also frequently leads to just going-forward penalties. The speed of FIFA’s response here means this will impact the currently-ongoing event.

The FIFA ruling here isn’t necessarily the end of the story. It’s significant that a lot of the reporting in recent days, particularly from TSN’s Rick Westhead, has suggested this drone spying practice goes well beyond Lombardi and New Zealand. Westhead’s piece Friday specifically implicated former Canadian women’s and Canadian men’s head coach John Herdman (now the head coach of MLS’ Toronto FC) in showing Canadian men’s players video of a closed Honduras practice during qualifying for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, so there are questions about potential penalties for Herdman and the men’s team. And there’s also been some talk of if the Canadian women’s Olympic gold (from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, actually held in 2021) could be rescinded.

We’ll see if anything comes of any of that. But it’s certainly notable to see FIFA quickly rule on this scandal, and to do so in a way that directly impacts the ongoing Olympic tournament. And we’ll see if that leads to the Canadians’ gold-medal defence coming to an early end.

[Devin Heroux on X/Twitter]

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