Hurricane lull ending: System could impact Carolinas

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic that could threaten the Southeast U.S. in the next 8 to 10 days.

Early Saturday morning, the NHC had outlined a 20% chance of development into a Tropical Depression or named system over the next seven days. As of the latest update, there is now a 40% chance of development.

Meteorologists with the NHC say that “environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form around midweek.”

Of course, the big question is whether this system could impact North Carolina.

At this point, it’s too early for reliable forecast models to provide a definite answer; however, our region is certainly within the realm of possibility.

CBS 17 Meteorologist Lance Blocker explains that forecasters use “Ensemble Forecast Models” to predict the most likely path a storm will take once it forms.

These models run up to 50 different weather simulations to show various possible paths for a tropical storm or hurricane, helping forecasters understand the range of outcomes and prepare accordingly.

This morning, the simulations showed many possible paths, with some taking the storm into Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

By the afternoon update, more of the simulations turned the storm north, suggesting it might veer closer and closer toward the Carolina coast and then potentially head back out into the Atlantic.

Meteorologist Lance Blocker noted that “this will continue to flip-flop in the coming days, but once the system develops, there will be more of a consensus on the track.”

When will we know where this potential tropical system will go and if it will impact the Carolinas?

Forecast track confidence will likely increase by the middle of next week.

Here’s why: Forecast models primarily use data from satellites that are over 20,000 miles above the Earth.

Since the system has not yet developed, confidence in the predicted tracks is very low because they don’t always define the starting point for the system’s track.

However, current indications suggest that the system will likely develop by the middle of next week. Once this happens, the satellites will be able to pinpoint its location, and the forecast models can then provide a more precise track of the tropical system.

In the meantime, don’t be alarmed if you see some ominous forecast models that will spread rapidly across social media. This happens every year. It is always best to wait for official updates regarding the system, since forecast track confidence remains very low at this point.

Of course, we will continue to keep you updated on this system and what impacts it could bring to our region.

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