UPDATE Carolinas Could See Tropical System in Early August

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — We began issuing updates on a tropical wave Saturday, and we want to bring you the latest on this slowly developing system.

As of Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is continuing to monitor a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic that could threaten the Southeast U.S. in the next 8 to 10 days.

The 2 p.m. update shows a 40% chance that this system will develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next seven days as it turns northwest toward the U.S.

Meteorologists with the NHC say that “environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form around midweek.”

The primary focus for our area is whether or not this system will impact North Carolina. There is now a slightly higher chance of that happening.

At this point, it’s still too early for forecast models to provide a very reliable track. However, there has been an overall trend in the last 24 hours.

Saturday’s track possibilities were very wide and lacked a clear consensus. Some outcomes even showed the system could track as far west as the Gulf of Mexico.

Sunday’s forecast model runs shifted to the east, with more simulations suggesting the system could move closer to the North and South Carolina coasts.

These models run up to 50 different weather simulations to show various possible paths for a tropical storm or hurricane, helping forecasters understand the range of outcomes and prepare accordingly.

Meteorologist Lance Blocker noted that “this will continue to flip-flop in the coming days, but once the system develops, there will be more of a consensus on the track. As of now, any forecast remains low confidence.”

Here’s why: Forecast models primarily use data from satellites that are over 20,000 miles above the Earth.

Since the system has not yet developed, confidence in the predicted tracks is very low because they don’t always define the starting point for the system’s track.

However, current indications suggest that the system will likely develop by the middle of next week. Once this happens, the satellites will be able to pinpoint its location, and the forecast models can then provide a more precise track of the tropical system.

In the meantime, don’t be alarmed if you see some ominous forecast models that will spread rapidly across social media. This happens every year. It is always best to wait for official updates regarding the system, since forecast track confidence remains very low at this point.

Of course, we will continue to keep you updated on this system and what impacts it could bring to our region.

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