A lot can happen in five years. For example, in 2019, most people had never heard of coronaviruses, mRNA vaccines, or social distancing.
Similarly, five years can change the stock market, too. As new technologies arrive, the corporate hierarchy will evolve. Existing leaders can stumble, and rising stars can take their place.
So, who will be the three largest companies by market cap in 2029? Here's my prediction.
Image source: Getty Images.
Microsoft
By 2029, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will regain its position as the largest public company in the world.
There are many reasons why Microsoft will leapfrog Apple . Still, I think the central reason is that software will become more important than hardware over the next five years, which will significantly benefit Microsoft and hurt Apple.
Granted, Microsoft isn't just a software company anymore. It makes gaming devices, laptops, and tablets. However, those products make up a fraction of Microsoft's sales. Most of the company's revenue comes from cloud computing, application and operating system software, and, increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) .
Microsoft's long-standing partnership and investment in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI has already paid off, as the company has integrated many ChatGPT-powered features into its software products. Moreover, as AI technology develops, investors should expect further integration and innovation that will keep Microsoft's iconic software suite on top for years to come .
Over time, that should help Microsoft overtake Apple, whose revenue growth has stalled as iPhone sales have leveled out. Granted, Apple has some exciting AI-powered features that have reinvigorated its stock price. However, over the long run, Apple must develop new, innovative hardware, or its stock will fail to keep up with Microsoft's.
Nvidia
It's been the hottest stock on Wall Street for the last two years, and it's currently the third-largest company by market cap. It's Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) , and I think it will be the second-largest company by 2029.
Granted, I've recently turned neutral on Nvidia due to its lofty valuation . However, I still believe the company can reach the No. 2 spot on this list within five years.
That's because Nvidia's graphics processing unit (GPU) technology is the industry standard. When companies want to develop cutting-edge AI systems, they need Nvidia GPUs -- lots of them . Companies like Meta Platforms and Tesla have bought hundreds of thousands of these chips to perfect the metaverse or crack full self-driving.
In turn, that's led to a massive jump in Nvidia's revenue. Annual sales have skyrocketed nearly threefold, from $25 billion to $70 billion in less than two years.
While I have concerns about whether Nvidia can keep meeting (and beating) sales estimates as competition from AMD and others heats up, I still think the company's stock can outperform Apple's.
Amazon
Finally, there's Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) . It is currently the fifth-largest American company, with a market cap of $1.9 trillion. But by 2029, I think it will leapfrog Alphabet and Apple to reach No. 3. Here's why.
Like Microsoft, Amazon relies on a diversified set of revenue streams. It operates the world's largest cloud services platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world's largest e-commerce network, and one of the top advertising networks. Crucially, it also has underappreciated assets in AI and robotics.
Consider Amazon's vast warehouse network. The company has over 750,000 robots working inside these facilities, and it plans to add many more in the coming years. Indeed, the company has already doubled its robotic workforce over the last three years.
Not only does this use of robots make Amazon more operationally efficient (leading to more profits for shareholders), but it also puts Amazon in a prime position to grow its robotics business -- if it so chooses. The company could use the lessons learned from its robotics operation to assist other organizations, from restaurants to retail, as robots in the workplace become the norm.
Finally, Amazon's AI-powered smart speakers present an opportunity for growth. Over 500 million have been sold , but they've never been particularly profitable. However, a recent internal shakeup should give investors hope that Amazon could solve the puzzle of how to make in-home AI speakers more than just novelties. If the company can pull it off, it could be a vast new revenue stream for Amazon.
To sum up , Amazon is performing well with just its existing business streams. However, if the company can cash in on its robotics and AI potential, I think Amazon could climb past Alphabet and Apple to grab the No. 3 spot by 2029.
Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Jake Lerch has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
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