‘Don’t sleep on Florida’: Harris candidacy jolts battered state Democrats

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Vice President Kamala Harris’ catapult to the top of the ticket has given Florida Democrats a rush of adrenaline.

The state party has had a near-unabated losing streak since former President Barack Obama won the state in 2012. Time and again, leading Democrats heralded demographic change or rising political stars as a precursor to victory — only to come up short as the nation’s biggest battleground turned from purple to red.

Now Harris’ entry in the presidential race has recharged enthusiasm among rank-and-file Democrats from Miami to Tallahassee. No, they admit, Harris probably won’t win the state; Florida is not among the “pathways to victory” for the campaign, and no Democratic (or Republican) group has invested any serious money on advertising here.

Yet high engagement could help them avoid a repeat of the disaster of the midterms — when Democratic turnout plunged as Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republicans romped to huge victories — and give the party a chance to start the recovery process in a state where there has not been a Democratic governor since 1999, they say.

“People were in the doldrums and felt like they were headed to a likely defeat,” said Ryan Ray, the Democratic Party chair for Leon County, a small Democratic island in ruby-red North Florida. “She makes Democratic base voters of all stripes more enthusiastic than we were before.”

What happens in Florida over the next three-plus months will test Republicans’ hold on a state of more than 23 million people, which has become a reliable source of electoral votes for former President Donald Trump and the GOP. Democrats were already hoping to see a turnout boost from a pair of November ballot measures that would overturn the state’s ban on abortion after six weeks and legalize marijuana for adults.

Still, some still fear Harris excitement will give way to another round of shattered expectations, moving Florida even further from its place as a swing state that decided the presidency in 2000.

While the Harris campaign and some top Democrats insist the vice president will put Florida back in reach, others continue to lower expectations.

“Do I believe Kamala Harris is going to win Florida? No, probably not,” Reggie Cardozo, a veteran Florida political operative who served as deputy state director for Hillary Clinton. “Do I believe that Kamala Harris gives us a better shot of closing that gap than maybe Joe Biden did? Absolutely. … So for me it’s a matter of: Does the vice president lose Florida by 5 points or does she lose it by 12 points?”

A victory for Democrats would likely come not via Harris winning the state or Democrats upsetting Sen. Rick Scott in November. Instead, it would look like Democrats slowly clawing their way back into political relevance, at least having a chance to break Republican legislative supermajorities — which, under the control of DeSantis, have driven the state to the right.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz , a South Florida Democrat and former chair of the Democratic National Committee, said “Harris knows Florida” and “her super-charged candidacy expands our Democratic map especially with younger, minority and women voters who are just now engaging in the race.”

“My message is: Don’t sleep on Florida, because Kamala’s candidacy just woke a sleeping giant,” Wasserman Schultz said.

The Harris campaign, however, continues to send mixed signals about how serious it is about Florida. Harris has visited Florida — which has a diverse blend of white, Hispanic and Black voters — roughly a dozen times as vice president to put the state GOP on notice over abortion rights, gun violence and Black history curriculum.

But in a memo sent out early Wednesday , Jen O’Malley Dillon, chair of the Harris for President campaign, listed several states cited as “pathways to victory.” Florida wasn’t on that list.

The campaign said it has seen a burst of energy in Florida following Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race and endorse Harris. The organization said it had signed up nearly 6,000 new volunteers in the state since the day Biden exited the race and this weekend is holding mobilization events across the state. It has more than 30 hired campaign staffers with plans to open additional offices in the next few weeks. The Florida Democratic Party also announced a slew of new hires on Thursday.

“Florida is a critical state this election, and it's one we're determined to win,” said Jasmine Burney-Clark, state director for the Harris campaign. “We are seeing an overwhelming groundswell of support for Kamala Harris in Florida and our campaign is ramping up, building on the strong foundation we’ve already established, and working for every vote in this state.”

But so far, neither party has spent any significant money advertising in the state with more than 13 million active registered voters.

Steve Schale, who worked on Obama’s Florida campaign and helped with a super PAC that backed Biden, said “I suspect that the [Democratic National Committee] and the campaign have a ‘prove it’ attitude right now.”

In the last presidential election, Biden, former President Donald Trump and their allies spent roughly $250 million on ads in Florida . Trump wound up winning the state by 3 points, but he crucially had less money to spend in critical Midwestern states.

This cycle, there’s been less than $500,000 spent or booked on the presidential race in the state, according to an analysis done by AdImpact.

“Every hour and every dollar of the Harris campaign now asks, ‘Will this hour of campaign time help us get to 270?’” said Fernand Amandi, a well-known pollster and Democratic consultant from Miami. “I don’t think Florida is anywhere in that conversation right now.”

It’s a reflection of how hard the state has swung to Republicans, who now enjoy a nearly 1 million voter registration advantage over Democrats. And it’s part of the reason the Trump campaign remains dismissive of Harris’ changes in Florida. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio told Florida Republicans at this month’s convention that Trump would win the state by “double digits.”

“The fundamentals of the race are the same,” said Brian Hughes, a veteran Florida political operative and a senior adviser for Trump. “Florida is energized for President Trump because Harris represents the same weakness as Biden. Biden acted like a California liberal and Harris actually is one.”

DeSantis, meanwhile, has called Harris a “lousy candidate” and said “it wouldn’t surprise if she faceplants over the next two weeks.” Throughout his time in office he has relished making policy contrasts between Florida and Harris' native California, even debating Gov. Gavin Newsom on TV during the presidential primary and sending undocumented immigrants to Sacramento.

Republicans aren’t the only ones who pan the possibility of things turning around for Democrats in Florida. Democratic megadonor John Morgan, a Florida trial lawyer, scoffed at Harris’ chances not just here but nationally. Morgan, who had pushed for Biden to pick former Rep. Val Demings as his running mate in 2020, told POLITICO he was against Harris becoming the nominee and predicted Trump would not only win Florida, but the presidency.

"I think it’s going to be the same,” Morgan, who has been outspoken in his opposition to elevating Harris, said of how Democrats would perform in the state by putting Harris at the top of the ticket. “I think she’ll get a bounce because Democrats, more than anything, they love new toys. They like shiny pennies. They don’t like old pennies."

Other Democrats say what Harris could do is boost enthusiasm in an election to help them win down-ballot races in swing legislative districts across the state.

“A 6- to 7-point loss is a win for Democrats,” Cardozo said. “That means at the end of the day there’s hope. It makes people think about what ‘26 looks like here.”