MLB insider sounds off on prospect rankings

There’s no denying that baseball reporters have a tough job. Covering the major-league team and an entire minor-league system is difficult enough. But having to take inventory of it all from a global standpoint as a national reporter for all 30 Major League Baseball teams seems that much harder.

And it is.

But there’s also a practice that’s been going on for several years that prospect writers have had just about enough of. That level of frustration tends to boil over, particularly around the MLB Trade Deadline when national writers are somewhat consistently citing MLB Pipeline’s prospect rankings as if they’re up to date. And while it’s a widely used resource, many across the industry believe it consistently lags behind other outlets like Baseball America, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. This is especially evident when MLB Pipeline fails to update its midseason rankings before the trade deadline.

This never-ending cycle annually leads to confusion. Fans are often perplexed when a big-name player is traded for a prospect ranked low on the MLB Pipeline list. However, prospect writers with more up-to-date evaluations quickly point out that the acquired player is actually a much higher-rated prospect than the ranking suggests.

The cycle of confusion is predictable, and the solution is straightforward: MLB Pipeline needs to update its rankings more frequently. Unfortunately, national reporters continue to rely on these outdated rankings, creating a distorted view of prospect values on both sides of a trade.

Here are some examples of tweets throughout the industry in the past few days:

The criticism isn’t directed at Feinsand, nor are we implying that Jeff Passan’s tweet below directly references his reporter colleague. But, the ESPN MLB insider’s tweet directly responded to the backlash surrounding the Angels’ trading their closer.

The deal — and Passan’s remarks — ignited a broader conversation about the reliability of prospect rankings.

Passan highlighted a common issue: public rankings often become outdated as the season progresses. In the case of Klassen and Aldegheri, their pre-season rankings didn’t accurately reflect their current value, as evidenced by how prospect writers and those around the league seem to value the now-former Phillies prospects.

And to be fair to Feinsand, he later provided more context:

But at the same time, this issue is part of a larger pattern. While it’s not a criticism of reporters like Ken Rosenthal, who rely on league-provided resources, the discrepancy between public perception and actual prospect value is a persistent problem.

There’s a disparity here, and as pointed out by Baseball Prospectus senior writer Jeffrey Paternostro, we’ve now seen both sides of the equation. Based on those rankings, there’s a perception that the Rays fleeced the Padres for a high-end reliever in Jason Adam, who has multiple arbitration-eligible years before officially becoming an MLB free agent.

That’s not to say that the Rays didn’t do well for themselves, but trading three top-12 prospects for a 32-year-old who won’t even be closing games for you seems like a high price, right? Well, that’s not exactly the case, as again, the outdated ranking systems haven’t accounted for many things. That includes the ranking of Dylan Lesko, who came into the season as San Diego’s No. 3 prospect and is no longer viewed as the top pitching prospect for one of the better farm systems in the league.

We’re not going to sit here and say not to visit MLB Pipeline; they have many prospect writers who do a tremendous job of covering prospects and the minor league systems. At the same time, it would behoove national writers to look at alternate resources that provide midseason rankings before the trade deadline. There’s no perfect solution to a more accurate portrayal of prospect value throughout the season.

But it also doesn’t really seem to benefit anyone by perpetuating confusion.

[ Jeff Passan ]

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