Can Canada women qualify for Olympic soccer knockout stage? Scenarios for CanWNT after point deduction

The Canadian women's soccer team was rocked by a scandal that left the players on the precipice of elimination from the 2024 Summer Olympics regardless of their performance.

After a member of the team staff was caught spying on New Zealand training with a drone before their first group match, Canada was docked six points by the International Olympic Committee, and it left the team needing a miracle to advance through to the knockout stage.

Anything less than three wins in their three matches would leave Canada out of the running, even as eight of the 12 women's teams advance from the group stage to the quarterfinals.

Yet here they are, in control of their own destiny heading into the final match of Group A play. An enormous 101st-minute stoppage-time winner from Vanessa Gilles against France gave Canada a 2-1 victory and left them able to advance as they take on Colombia in their final group match.

MORE: A full review of the drone spying scandal that left Canada with a six-point deduction at the Olympics

Group A standings in 2024 Summer Olympics

* Canada were hit with a six-point deduction after being caught spying on New Zealand training with a drone.

If it weren't for their six-point deduction, Canada would be in firm control of the Group A standings at the 2024 Summer Olympics. They've won both games by a 2-1 score, topping both New Zealand and hosts France in comeback fashion while scoring all four of their goals in the second half.

"Heck, we have nothing to lose," said Gilles after the win over France. "We haven't slept in the last three days. We haven't eaten, we've been crying. I wouldn't say they're ideal performing situations but we've held each other through it and we've had absolutely nothing to lose."

Canada women's scenarios to qualify for Olympic knockout stage

Above all else, Canada women's soccer must win their final match against Colombia to have any hope of qualifying for the knockout stage.

With both Group B and Group C sporting third-place teams with three points, Canada cannot advance with just one point off a final-round draw.

In all likelihood, that's it. A win against Colombia would almost certainly see Canada through as the second-place finisher in Group A regardless of the outside result.

A win against Colombia would see them leap the South American nation in the standings on goal differential. If France beat New Zealand, Canada would finish second behind the six-point hosts. If France and New Zealand draw, Canada would also finish second behind the four-point hosts.

Incredibly, Canada can actually still win Group A with a win plus extra help. If New Zealand pulls off the upset against France in the finale but doesn't catch Canada's goal differential advantage (which is almost impossible), Canada would top the standings as all sides finish with three points. Given the North American nation must win vs. Colombia for any of this to trigger, asking New Zealand to beat France by five or more goals more than Canada win by is simply not realistic.

There is no plausible way for Canada to finish third in the group, and thus it all comes down to the results within their own standings — first and foremost, with a win.

In summary...

Canada finish first in Group A if:

• Canada win vs. Colombia AND New Zealand win vs. France AND Canada maintain goal-differential advantage over New Zealand

Canada finish second in Group A if:

• Canada win vs. Colombia AND France win or draw vs. New Zealand
  OR
• Canada win vs. Colombia AND New Zealand win vs. France AND New Zealand jump Canada on goal differential