How Livingston County has voted over 100 years of presidential elections

LIVINGSTON COUNTY — The upcoming presidential election is shaping up to be a close one. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former president Donald Trump, as endorsements for Harris stack up ahead of the Democratic National Convention.

If past election results are any indication, a majority of Livingston County voters will back Trump, and by a wide margin.

Over the last century, voters in Livingston County — which historically has been a Republican stronghold — have backed a Democrat in presidential elections only twice.

100 years of presidential votes in Livingston County

Below are the percentage of votes given to the Democratic and Republican nominees in Livingston County since 1924, according to the Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections:

1924 — Calvin Coolidge, Republican: 67.3%; John Davis, Democrat: 28%

1928 — Herbert Hoover, Republican: 72.8%; Alfred Smith, Democrat: 26.8%

1932 — Franklin Roosevelt, Democrat: 50%; Herbert Hoover, Republican: 48.4%

The first Democrat in the last 100 years to win over Livingston County was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. In 1932, the then-governor of New York and former state senator squeaked by with about 1.6% more votes in Livingston County than incumbent Republican President Herbert Hoover. It was the closest race in the county in the last century.

1936 — Alfred Landon, Republican: 53.5%; Franklin Roosevelt, Democrat: 43%

1940 — Wendell Willkie, Republican: 68.2%; Franklin Roosevelt, Democrat: 31.4%

1944 — Thomas Dewey, Republican: 71.3%; Franklin Roosevelt, Democrat: 28%

FDR increasingly lost favor among Livingston County voters in the next three elections — serving the most terms of any president in U.S. history — completely souring with them by 1944, when Republican Thomas Dewey picked up 71.3% of county votes.

1948 — Thomas Dewey, Republican: 70.9%; Harry Truman, Democrat: 27.1%

1952 — Dwight Eisenhower, Republican: 75.5%; Adlai Stevenson, Democrat: 23.8%

Dwight D. Eisenhower was a World War II hero and five-star general when he bested Democrat Adlai Stevenson, an ambassador to the United Nations, in a landslide victory in 1952. Stevenson had support from former President Harry Truman, who decided not to run again, but failed to embrace the emerging power of television like Eisenhower, who won 55% of the popular vote across the country and saw similar returns in Michigan.

The landslide was much larger in Livingston County. It was the largest margin in a century of county history, according to the Atlas.

1956 — Dwight Eisenhower, Republican: 72.6%; Adlai Stevenson, Democrat: 27%

While Eisenhower was still the county's pick when he faced Stevenson again in 1956, his popularity had slightly waned.

1960 — Richard Nixon, Republican: 64.6%; John Kennedy, Democrat: 35%

1964 — Lyndon Johnson, Democrat: 58.9%; Barry Goldwater, Republican: 40.8%

In a 1964 landslide victory, President Lyndon Johnson, a Democrat, bested U.S. Senator Barry Goodwater, a Republican from Arizona. Johnson, who served as vice president until the assassination of John F. Kennedy, won more than 61% of the popular vote when it came time to run.

Johnson, a champion of civil rights legislation, won over voters in Livingston, according to the Atlas. He would later drop out of his run for re-election in 1968, losing favor during the Vietnam War.

1968 — Richard Nixon, Republican: 51%; Hubert Humphrey, Democrat: 35.8%

1972 — Richard Nixon, Republican: 66.8%; George McGovern, Democrat: 30.2%

1976 — Gerald Ford, Republican: 59.8%; Jimmy Carter, Democrat: 38.2%

1980 — Ronald Reagan, Republican: 60.1%; Jimmy Carter, Democrat: 30.3%

1984 — Ronald Reagan, Republican: 74.3%; Walter Mondale, Democrat: 25%

1988 — George H. W. Bush, Republican: 68.7%; Michael Dukakis, Democrat: 30.1%

1992 — George H. W. Bush, Republican: 44.6%; Bill Clinton, Democrat: 28.9%; H. Ross Perot, Independent: 25.8%

1996 — Bob Dole, Republican: 50.7%; Bill Clinton, Democrat: 37.3%; H. Ross Perot, Reform: 10.5%

2000 — George W. Bush, Republican: 59.1%; Al Gore, Democrat: 38.1%

2004 — George W. Bush, Republican: 62.7%; John Kerry, Democrat: 36.2%

2008 — John McCain, Republican: 55.6%; Barack Obama, Democrat: 42.3%

2012 — Mitt Romney, Republican: 60.9%; Barack Obama, Democrat: 37.7%

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Support for Obama, then a senator from Illinois, was low in the Livingston County, where voters chose to back John McCain, also a senator. Support for Obama dropped even lower when he ran for re-election against Republican Mitt Romney, then the former governor of Massachusetts.

2016 — Donald Trump, Republican: 61.6%; Hillary Clinton, Democrat: 32.2%

2020 — Donald Trump, Republican: 60.5%; Joe Biden, Democrat: 37.9%

In general elections, support for former president Donald Trump in Livingston County dropped only slightly between 2016 and 2020, remaining above 60% in both races against former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and then-Vice President Joe Biden.

Of note, Livingston County voters gave support above 70% to a Republican candidate six times in the last 100 years, but haven't given more than 62.7% to a Republican candidate since 1988.

— Contact reporter Jennifer Eberbach at jeberbach@livingstondaily.com.

This article originally appeared on Livingston Daily: How Livingston County has voted over 100 years of presidential elections