Harris as Democratic nominee likely won’t affect abortion ballot initiatives, organizers say

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a roundtable at Fountain Street Church in Grand Rapids, Mich. on Feb. 22, 2024, as part of her Fight for Reproductive Freedoms tour. (Photo by Andrew Roth)

Vice President Kamala Harris has been outspoken about her support for access to abortion and other reproductive rights for years, holding numerous events as part of President Joe Biden’s administration long before his monumental decision Sunday to exit the race as the party’s nominee for a second term.

She made history in April when she became the first sitting president or vice president to visit an abortion clinic and led a “ Fight for Reproductive Freedoms ” tour in January, speaking to Americans every month in swing states — Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and states with abortion bans — Alabama , Arizona and Florida — about the possibilities of electing former President Donald Trump a second time, such as the passage of a national abortion ban.

Meanwhile, Biden was frequently criticized for what activists viewed as his tepid support for access, often calling him out for his avoidance of directly using the word “abortion.” And at the Republican National Convention, speakers from within the party and Trump avoided the topic entirely.

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Now that Harris is the likely Democratic nominee , activist groups on both sides of the abortion-rights debate have seized the opportunity to put the issue back in the spotlight.

According to reports , nonpartisan voter registration platform Vote.org saw a spike of 38,500 new voters during the 48 hours that followed Biden’s announcement to step aside. The organization said 83% of those new registrations were among people between the ages of 18 and 34. The Harris campaign also said it raised $100 million in the first 24 hours, and reported more than 100,000 volunteers nationwide had signed on to the campaign.

Jessica Mackler, president of Emily’s List, a political action committee that helps elect Democratic female candidates in favor of abortion rights, said during a press call Wednesday that their donations increased following the announcement as well. On Thursday, the group announced a $2 million program in support of Harris’s campaign.

“We knew this election would be determined by abortion rights, but now we have at the top of the ticket the country’s most powerful advocate for reproductive freedom,” Mackler said. “So it is going to put those issues even more front and center, and that is how we win.”

But some abortion-rights focused groups, such as those trying to pass ballot initiatives enshrining the right to abortion in state constitutions, say Harris’s candidacy is unlikely to affect their campaigns.

Shortly after the U.S. Supreme Court issued its Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in 2022 allowing states to regulate abortion access, Harris met with state legislators from Florida, Indiana, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota to discuss ways to protect reproductive rights, States Newsroom reported in July 2022. Save for Indiana, which has since banned most abortions, advocates in those states launched efforts to restore access through ballot measures.

As many as 11 states could have an abortion-related question on their ballots in November, with five confirmed — Nevada, Colorado, South Dakota, Florida and Maryland. Qualification efforts are still underway in states such as Arizona, Montana, Missouri and Arkansas.

Ballot initiative leaders don’t expect to see effects from nominee change

The Fairness Project, a ballot-initiative focused group, has dedicated organizational resources to the initiatives in Arizona, Florida, Montana and Missouri, and also worked to pass the abortion ballot measures in Michigan and Ohio over the past two years.

Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, said the idea that there may be more enthusiasm for the initiatives now that Harris is in the race is backwards, especially because the initiatives that will make abortion access a constitutional right don’t rely on other factors of the election going in a favorable direction.

“The reason we see so much enthusiasm on salient topics like reproductive rights is because there’s such a linear relationship between voting and the change you want to see. You don’t have to hope that the person wins, and they prioritize your issue, and that you have a friendly Congress, and so on,” Hall said. “There’s a really direct relationship between, ‘I vote in November, and 30 days later there are abortion rights back in my state.’”

Ashley All, president of the Kansas Coalition for Common Sense, worked to defeat a ballot initiative in 2022 that would have allowed the state to enact abortion bans in the wake of the Dobbs decision. In the time since, she has worked on five other abortion-related initiatives, including in Michigan, Kentucky , Ohio and Montana .

All agreed that people see abortion access as a medical and personal issue rather than a political one, and while there is an obvious difference to her between the two candidates for president in terms of who will protect access on a national level, the initiatives don’t neatly align with partisanship. Some people end up splitting their tickets along ideological lines, voting in favor of an abortion measure but still selecting Republicans for office.

“Based on that, I don’t think ballot initiatives across the country likely will see a dramatic shift due to the top of the ticket,” All said. “That being said, there has obviously been a dramatic shift in momentum and excitement since she became the nominee, specifically among women and young people.”

Hall said it’s important for the initiative efforts to remain nonpartisan, particularly because many of them are happening in Republican-dominated or swing states that need bipartisan coalitions to succeed. That means separating themselves from partisan slogans, language and infrastructure. And to the extent that turnout may be larger in the general election because abortion is a motivating issue for voters, Hall thinks it will be a benefit to the Democratic candidate, and not the initiative.

“There are not enough people who are going to vote for the Democratic candidate for president living in Missouri to win a ballot measure with just those voters alone,” Hall said. “So in most of the states where abortion is going to be on the ballot, the measure campaign is having to communicate to a universe of voters that is broader than just the folks who are going to vote for Democrats at the top of the ticket.”

Harris speaks out frequently against bans without rape and incest exceptions

Harris has repeatedly said Congress should restore Roe v. Wade, and when asked by Face the Nation in September about when should abortion be limited, she used the same language. Neither Harris nor Biden has used the phrase “fetal viability” frequently when discussing abortion, even though passing the Women’s Health Protection Act would allow abortion up to viability and later only if a patient’s health or life is at risk, the standard set by Roe.

During her time as California’s attorney general, Harris sued an anti-abortion group that was ordered to pay Planned Parenthood more than $2 million in damages after activists secretly recorded videos of abortion providers. The defendants challenged the decision, but last year, the Supreme Court declined to hear their case. Harris has said she was inspired to become a prosecutor because a close friend in high school was molested by her stepfather. In California, she took on cases about sex crimes, domestic violence and child abuse, CalMatters reported.
Today, she often mentions that several states have abortion bans with no exceptions for rape or incest.

This spring, Trump said the issue should be left to the states , but he hasn’t definitively said whether he would veto legislation enacting a national ban or if he would oppose efforts to restrict access to abortion medication at the federal level. In an interview with TIME Magazine three months ago, the GOP nominee said he would release a policy statement on the Comstock Act of 1873 , a dormant statute abortion-rights opponents say should be enforced to ban the mailing of abortion pills, in two weeks. Trump has yet to express his opinion on the 19th century law. His running mate, Ohio U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, once signed a letter urging the U.S. Department of Justice to enforce the act.

Trump’s campaign is also closely tied to Project 2025, a blueprint assembled by the Heritage Foundation of the desired agenda for the next Republican administration. That agenda includes banning abortion medication nationwide, requiring states to track more data around who gets abortions and where and ending mandated insurance coverage for emergency contraception.

During a stop in Pennsylvania, Harris said Trump is responsible for the state of abortion rights across the country — 14 states have near-total bans, and three prohibit abortion before most people know they’re pregnant . A six-week ban in Iowa is also set to take effect on Monday.“If you want to know who’s to blame for where we are right now, a finger can be directly pointed at the former president,” Harris said in May, according to Pennsylvania Capital-Star . “The former president made it very clear and then did what he intended to do: He said he would pick three members of the United States Supreme Court with the intention that they would undo the protections of Roe. And they did exactly as he intended.”