When President Joe Biden slipped in the polls after his disastrous debate, several states seemed to be falling out of reach for Democrats, but with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, some Democrats are feeling sunny about their chances in some non-battleground states.
Florida has steadily headed toward Republicans in recent years, but a ballot measure regarding abortion in November had made Democrats hopeful for an upset in the Sunshine State in the presidential race. But after Biden's poor debate showing, it appeared to slip out of reach. With Harris's ascension apparently uniting the Democratic Party, some are once again dreaming of a Florida upset.
“My message is: Don’t sleep on Florida, because Kamala’s candidacy just woke a sleeping giant,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) told Politico.
Wasserman Schultz said the vice president "knows Florida" and that “her supercharged candidacy expands our Democratic map, especially with younger, minority, and women voters who are just now engaging in the race."
Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison echoed that sentiment during an appearance on MSNBC on Sunday, saying to not "sleep" on Florida and North Carolina being in play with Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said in a statement over the weekend that "Florida Democrats are more fired up than ever," and said that Harris "has energized the entire Democratic base and inspired millions of people across the country to re-engage in the democratic process."
"Count Florida out at your own peril," Fried posted on X last week. "Floridians are tired of being the lab rats for extreme policies and are ready for #somethingnew as we unite to #TakeBackFL."
Former President Donald Trump held a firm advantage over Biden in the polls in Florida, with the RealClearPolitics polling average showing the former president leading Biden, 50.8%-44.5%. Harris still trails Trump in Florida, with a Florida Atlantic University poll giving Trump a 49%-44% advantage with likely voters.
Amendment 4, which will have voters decide whether to enshrine abortion through viability into law, has been seen as a winning issue for Democrats, who hope to ride the coattails of the measure to score upset victories in the presidential and Senate races in Florida. The state's 60% threshold for ballot measures, however, makes getting this amendment passed a daunting task.
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Democrats have also not faired well in statewide elections in Florida since the turn of the millennium. In presidential elections, Democrats have only won the state two times since 2000, in 2008 and 2012, and in other statewide races only three Democrats have won four total statewide races in that time. Fried was the most recent Democrat to win a statewide office, when she was elected agriculture commissioner in 2018.
The Cook Political Report has rated Florida as "likely Republican" in the presidential race.
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