Summer of Soccer best bets: U.S. men put Olympic dreams on the line against Guinea

The 2024 Olympic men's soccer tournament has been a tale of two games for the United States. In game one, it looked stellar but came unraveled against a far superior France; in game two, it looked average but took its chances well to beat a floundering New Zealand 4-1. Skill and grit: you need both to make deep runs in tournaments. The U. S. clearly has them.

It will need to draw upon all of its skill and grit in order to seal advancement to the quarterfinals tomorrow against Guinea. Yes, Guinea has lost its opening two games and is unlikely to lock down a quarterfinal spot of its own. But the U.S. is facing a lot of headwind in this match, including:

• France, having already sealed qualification, likely fielding a B-team against New Zealand and therefore making a New Zealand victory more likely
• Guinea, despite its unimpressive results, being exactly the kind of hardworking, fast-moving offensive team that could catch the U. S. off guard
• U. S. midfield lynchpin Gianluca Busio struggling with a hamstring injury
• The match being played in Saint-Etienne, the under-policed and volatile venue where Morocco staged a pitch invasion against Argentina

The U.S.'s path to the quarterfinals, therefore, is anything but simple.

If it wants to advance into the knockout rounds, the U. S. can't take any chances: it has to win against Guinea and it has to win big. If that happens, it won't matter what New Zealand does against France — even a Kiwi win in that game would see New Zealand relegated to third place on goal difference.

If the U.S. draws against Guinea, it will advance if New Zealand loses or draws against France. If the U.S. loses, though, things get incredibly complicated. A U.S. loss with a New Zealand loss puts the U.S., New Zealand and Guinea level on points, which means advancement will be dependent upon goal difference and/or head-to-head record. A U. S. loss with a New Zealand draw or win will see the U. S. eliminated from the Olympics altogether.

It all comes down to this: one match against Guinea to seal a spot in the knockout rounds. Where are the best bets? We think they're here:

Mihailovic's star quality. Colorado Rapids midfielder Djordje Mihailovic has been one of the U.S.'s best players all tournament, and he delivered on his promise by scoring a decisive penalty against New Zealand. We think Mihailovic is just getting started — and that he's one of the Americans most likely to cause problems for Guinea's hardworking defense. We're backing him as an anytime goalscorer at +300.

Diverse scoring. The U. S. managed to find the back of the net in both halves against New Zealand, and we think it'll pull off a similar feat against Guinea. We're backing the U. S. to score in both halves at +120.

A fascinating special. We're not always big fans of Bet365's specials — they're awfully specific — but the site is offering an interesting one for this match. A U. S. win, a Djordje Mihailovic goal and both teams scoring at +750 for all three? Yes, please.

The U. S. will take on Guinea in Saint-Etienne on Tuesday, July 30 at 1 p.m. ET.