US shrugs off ‘all-out war’ worries in Middle East

The Biden administration said worries about a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants breaking out are “exaggerated,” even as some Israeli officials signal that fierce retaliation could come soon.

Israel and the U.S. have blamed the Lebanon-based militant group for an attack over the weekend that killed a dozen children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah has strongly denied any involvement. On Sunday night, Israel’s security cabinet gave Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant authorization for a military attack in response.

Senior Israeli officials are publicly using strong language to warn Hezbollah that more fighting could break out at any time.

“We are on the precipice of potentially a regional or world war. Iran is behind all the aggression in the region and their ambitions are global,” Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, Israel's special envoy for foreign affairs, said in a text message. “The murder of those innocent children has crossed a red line.”

House Foreign Affairs ranking Democrat Gregory Meeks of New York also warned that the region is teetering between peace and an “all-out war,” while speaking on CNN Monday morning.

But predictions of an all-out war are “exaggerated,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday, citing “conversations we’ve been having.”

“We still believe a diplomatic solution can work,” Kirby added. “That's where the locus of our energies ought to be — not on a military solution, certainly not on a military solution that involves directly the United States military.”

As the temperature rises in the region, so do concerns: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened on Sunday to send troops into Israel to intervene on behalf of Palestinians. Germany on Monday called on Iran and others to prevent escalation, and airlines suspended routes and canceled flights to Beirut on Monday amid fears of escalation.

But the White House is “trying not to feed into Israeli right-wing rhetoric about the inevitability of going to war,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East peace negotiator. “No point in doomsaying. … Escalation isn’t inevitable.”

A pair of Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel wants to hurt Hezbollah without sparking a regional war.

Still, Hassan-Nahoum said “Iran-backed Hezbollah knows what it has to do if they don’t want a war.” Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib said the militants will withdraw if Israel stops attacking them.

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said it’s a “hot situation” between Israel and Hezbollah right now.

“Every time something occurs like we saw in the last couple of days, it just elevates the potential for escalation. It's very concerning,” he said in an interview. “The chances of something like this happening again is pretty high.”

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) argued Israel must decisively respond: “Israel has to take necessary steps based on the nature of that rocket attack that killed children,” he said in an interview. “We need to support whatever they do.”

Jonathan Lord, director of the Middle East Security program at the Center for a New American Security, said that however Israel responds, “we’ll have to wait and see” what Hezbollah’s reaction entails.

“Israel isn’t likely going to initiate a ground invasion of Lebanon with so much of its force engaged in Gaza,” Lord said. “But I’d be watching carefully for signs of the Gaza operation winding down, the resting and refitting of forces, and the re-positioning of those forces in the north.”

He added: “Israel isn’t there yet, but I wouldn’t be sanguine about the situation.”

Joe Gould contributed to this report.

A version of this story previously appeared in POLITICO’s National Security Daily newsletter. Like this content? Consider signing up!