Quarterback contracts are going to be discussed every year as players sign new deals and resolve contract disputes with their teams. This summer saw a slew of quarterbacks sign market-rate extensions, but where this year differed from previous years, to a degree, is that a few of these quarterbacks that signed deals largely have incomplete résumés.
It wasn't like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who have both won a number of division titles and made runs to the AFC championship game despite not yet making a Super Bowl, getting deals from their respective teams a few years ago. Just about everyone who has shown any signs of sustainability is getting big-time deals, which is fine. It's incredibly difficult to find a quarterback, and no team will ever be brave enough to just let their guy hit the market (although Jerry Jones might have something to say about that soon).
Still, the contracts of Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence have some people scratching their heads.
Let's take this one-by-one, starting with Love, who recently became the NFL's highest-paid quarterback with a monster $255 million contract from the Packers. The reason why this could be seen as risky is obvious: Love has only started one season for the Packers, and not all of it was good. Now, considering that Love became the most dynamic and efficient thrower of the football over the final half of the season, it would've been irresponsible to not pay him.
He was absolutely unflappable, nearly leading the Packers to the NFC title game. The future looks bright for Love and the Packers. The only concern for Love is if he somehow regresses back to the point where he was earlier last season, where the accuracy was a bit spotty and general manager Brian Gutekunst was declaring publicly the remainder of the season would be "very important" for Love. Still, the expectation for Love and the Packers should be a top-10 passing game based on what they accomplished last season.
Tagovailoa has the most accomplished statistical profile of the three. He’s been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league since head coach Mike McDaniel and wide receiver Tyreek Hill arrived in Miami. However, there are doubts about his ability to actually overcome some of the problems that his contract will create as the cap hits increase in the future. At some point, Tagovailoa is going to have to show the ability to consistently create and be the main driver of offensive production instead of taking a passenger role.
Still, it’s hard to let the quarterback of an offense that’s capable of scoring 70 points go, so it’s understandable why the Dolphins eventually paid him. Just need to wait and see how this one goes for the Dolphins over the next few years.
Trevor Lawrence is somewhere in the middle. He doesn't have the overall production of Tagovailoa or the stretch of extreme efficiency that Love had, but he has shown plenty of ability to overcome some of the shortcomings that the Jacksonville offense presents. They've put some playmakers around him, but overall it's been inconsistent and Lawrence hasn't quite lived up to the lofty expectations placed upon him.
That said, he’s largely been great for the Jaguars and still has a ton of untapped upside as he moves into his mid-20s and begins to grow into a veteran player. Don’t sell his stock just yet. He’s a risk-taker, but still a supremely talented quarterback that can grow into a perennial playoff performer.
Quarterbacks don’t grow on trees. Even the ones with question marks are getting paid, as this offseason showed. Time will tell if these investments will pay off, but it’s clear that they had to happen regardless of outcome. These three will be fascinating case studies to follow as quarterback contracts get more and more expensive, even for the players who have unknown or incomplete grades.
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