Wargames show the US could burn through its ammo in 'as few as 3 to 4 weeks' in a war with China, commission warns

• A new formal review warned that US munitions may last only a few weeks in a war with China.
• Some important weapons, like anti-ship missiles, may only last a few days, the 114-page report warned.
• Published by a congressionally appointed commission, the review warned of deficiencies across the board.

A new high-profile report on US national defense acknowledged that the Pentagon could deplete its munitions within "three to four weeks" in a protracted war with China.

The 114-page report , published on Monday by a bipartisan commission appointed by Congress, warned urgently that the US is unprepared for a sustained conflict with China or Russia, much less both at the same time.

Many of its assessments were based on previously reported material. Still, the review concentrates a slew of recent findings and dozens of officials' testimonies into a formal and dire recommendation for the US to increase defense spending and streamline its forces.

Ammunition stockpiles are particularly lacking, said the eight-person commission, which included a retired Army general, a former Democratic-party congresswoman, and a former US ambassador.

They cited a 2022 report from two Center for National American Security analysts that said the US doesn't have enough arms to "blunt and defeat an initial invasion" from powers like China.

The commissioners added that this shortage has endured even after the US recently intensified arms production to supply Ukraine.

"As a result, unclassified public wargames suggest that, in a conflict with China, the United States would largely exhaust its munitions inventories in as few as three to four weeks," their report said.

Some important munitions, such as anti-ship missiles, could last only a few days, the commission warned.

The commissioners said stockpiles among US allies are also a concern. As an example, they cited a 2022 report from the Royal United Services Institute about the war in Ukraine.

That report said: "At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock."

Defense industry 'grossly inadequate' even in peacetime

The US commission warned that defense production as a whole is in bad shape, saying the wider industry doesn't have the capacity to meet national needs even in peacetime.

"US industrial production is grossly inadequate to provide the equipment, technology, and munitions needed today, let alone given the demands of great power conflict," their report said.

Overall, they warned of a spectrum of deficiencies in the US, including a need for better career incentives to recruit military personnel, a "byzantine" research and development process, and a slow, bureaucratic Defense Department.

"Fundamental shifts in threats and technology require fundamental change in how DoD functions," the report said.

The commission proposed several major changes to the way the US plans defense.

One is an "all elements of national power" strategy incorporating the private and civil sectors. This mirrors, in principle, what China has been doing with its own defense industry — leveraging on civilian companies and state-run conglomerates that can work together with its military and prepare for wartime.

Another is a "Multiple Theater Force Construct," which aims to address large-scale conflicts against multiple world powers simultaneously.

That strategy is a step up from the more traditional "two-war construct" idea of the US being prepared to fight wars against two regional threats, such as Iran or North Korea.

The review further stressed that the US public is "largely unaware" of the threats to their country and its allies, saying that most Americans don't understand how major war stands to affect every aspect of their lives — from water and power supplies to internet services.

"A bipartisan 'call to arms' is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11," it said.