Pakistan's finance ministry forecasts July inflation of 12% to 13%

By Charlotte Greenfield and Asif Shahzad

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan's finance ministry expects inflation in July to range between 12% and 13%, easing further in August to stand between 11.0% and 12.0%, it said in a monthly economic outlook released on Tuesday.

Inflation figures likely to be released on Thursday by the statistics agency are closely watched by the central bank, which cut rates this week for the second time in a row as previously surging inflation was tempered.

The government had also cut the fiscal deficit to 4.9% of GDP between July 2023 and May 2024, the ministry said in its report, down from 5.5% last year.

Pakistan struck a deal this month with the International Monetary Fund for a $7-billion-loan programme that includes tough measures such as higher tax on farm incomes and electricity prices.

This prospect has aroused concern among poor and middle class Pakistanis contending with the threat of further inflation and higher taxes.

Inflation has slowed in recent months after hitting more than 30% in 2023. Pakistan's consumer price index (CPI) rose 12.6% in June on the year.

But pressure continues and one Islamist party has held protests in recent days and threatened sit-ins in major cities if the government does not tackle rising prices.

(Reporting by Charlotte Greenfield and Asif Shahzad in Islamabad; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Clarence Fernandez)