Severe Weather Expected Across Parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois; Tropical Activity Returns

NYC Hot & Humid Conditions Return Late Week

07/30/24 9:57am

CONUS Satellite 07/30/24Photo byNWS

Good morning everyone. We have a busy day set for the Northeast as low pressure spinning out of the Great Lakes region runs into very warm and moist air. Heavy showers and thunderstorms have already made their way into western Pennsylvania, and we're expecting this action to get a little more intense as the day wears on with the help of sunshine baking the atmosphere. However, we expect most of the action to fizzle out before reaching coastal areas of the Northeast and New England, so thunderstorm activity in the NYC Metro Area will be kept to a minimum and more of the widely scattered variety.

24hr SEVERE WEATHER RISK

24hr CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 07/30/24Photo byNWS

Our "best chance" to see some severe weather today will be across parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Indiana. We're already seeing some nasty storms across central Illinois, central Iowa, and southern Minnesota, but this is actually not the action we're talking about. A new round of severe weather is expected to develop this evening into the overnight hours, following the same path as this morning's showers & storms. With our evening and overnight batch, look for damaging winds, large hail, frequent lighting, torrential rain, and the possibility for a few isolated tornadoes.

National Weather Service - Hazardous Weather Outlook - Omaha, NE

We're also keeping an eye on the tropics, and the first tropical wave we've had in several weeks. During the time of Hurricane Beryl and its very early arrival in the hurricane season, I wrote an article cautioning declaring our tropical season "overactive" too soon. This looks to be the case as things have markedly settled down. Between Saharan dust and trade winds that are too strong & shear-like, nothing has really had a chance to form until now.

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Disturbance Discussion

Even so, there's nothing behind it right now and I'm not sure anything comes of this aside from some inconvenience for cruise ships. As of now, the models have been very wonky; with the GFS doing something funky & unrealistic in the Gulf, and the EURO bringing it slowly up the East Coast as tropical moisture picked up by a front. We'll hold off going any further right now and it seems unremarkable to me for the time being.

Here is your local NYC Forecast -

In NYC today, look for clouds and sun, muggy conditions, and highs in the upper 80's. We could see some late shower and storm action, but it looks widely scattered and more focused on interior sections of the Northeast. Look for more of the same tomorrow, but a better chance of some heavy showers and storms as that low pressure gets closer to the region.

Thursday we go hot and humid with low 90's likely. Friday is a repeat heat & sunshine-wise with more low 90's.

Both Saturday & Sunday, we increase the cloud cover a bit, keep it to a muggy near 90, with the chance of PM storms each day.