What Does It Take to Win a National Championship?

By Brett Daniels

Since the beginning of the College Football Playoff in 2014 all of the teams that have gone on to win the National Championship have hit certain benchmarks with regard to recruiting and the ratio of blue-chip athletes (4*, and 5* recruits) on the roster. According to Bud Elliott of CBS Sports a team must have at least a 50% blue chip ratio to be considered a National Championship contender. In addition, most of these teams have stacked top 10 classes on top of each other for multiple seasons.

2014 Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State won the first College Football Playoff as a #4 seed defeating #1 Alabama in the semifinals and #2 Oregon in the National Championship Game. During the preceding four-year stretch the Buckeyes had the #6 recruiting class in 2011 (278.47), #5 class in 2012 (285.13), #2 class in 2013 (303.35), and #3 class in 2014 (296.08). Ohio State averaged the #4 class over that span with an average class strength of 290.76 signing six 5*, fifty-nine 4*, and thirty-one 3* recruits. Ohio State had a Blue-Chip Index of 68% in 2014.

2015 Alabama Crimson Tide

This Alabama team might be the best collection of raw talent ever assembled on one football team. Coach Nick Saban had the #1 recruiting class the previous four years with composite scores of 313.12 (2012), 319.50 (2013), 319.71 (2014), and 311.10 (2015) this averages out to 315.86 which is the highest of all teams during the 4 team Playoff era. The Tide signed an astounding twenty-one 5*, fifty-seven 4*, and twenty-four 3* recruits for a Blue-Chip Index of 77%.

2016 Clemson Tigers

Clemson is the one team on this list that breaks all of the tendencies and shows that you don’t have to have all the talent, just enough of it in the right spots to win a Championship (having a 1 ^st round QB doesn’t hurt either). The Tigers averaged a #12 recruiting class (259.88) with the 2013 class finishing #15 (249.66), the 2014 class #16 (240.73), the 2015 class #9 (277.98), and the 2016 class # 11 (271.16). From 2013-2016 Clemson signed five 5*, forty 4*, and forty 3* recruits for a Blue-Chip Index of 52%.

2017 Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama had many of the players from the 2015 squad still on the team along with signing one of the greatest classes of all time in 2017. Several of those freshmen helped the Tide defeat Georgia in the National Championship. Alabama’s classes from 2014-2017 were all ranked #1 and averaged 314.06 points. 2014 (319.71), 2015 (311.10), 2016 (302.04), and 2017 (323.37). The Tide had twenty-one 5*, sixty-two 4*, and twenty 3* recruits for a Blue-Chip Index of 80%.

2018 Clemson Tigers

This Clemson team was a little better than the one that won the National Championship in 2016 but not at the level of many of the other teams on this list. Recruiting classes that averaged 10 ^th (267.93) and included QB Trevor Lawrence were instrumental in Clemson’s victory over Alabama. The 2015 class finished #9 (277.98), 2016 #11 (271.16), 2017 #16 (238.91), and 2018 #7 (283.67). The Tigers signed eleven 5*, thirty-five 4*, and twenty-nine 3* recruits for a Blue-Chip Index of 68%.

2019 LSU Tigers

LSU is the first team on this list where a transfer that is not included in the recruiting rankings or Blue-Chip Index makes a significant impact. Joe Burrow transferred to LSU from Ohio State and won the starting QB job in 2018 but didn’t truly blossom until the arrival of Joe Brady in 2019. The Tigers recruited well in the 2016–2019 time frame averaging the #7 class (280.50) highlighted by the #2 class in 2016 (295.03). In 2017 LSU had the #7 class (287.66), 2018 #15 class (254.38), and 2019 #5 class (284.94). The roster included seven 5*, fifty-three 4*, and thirty-six 3* recruits for a Blue Chip Index of 64%.

2020 Alabama Crimson Tide

The backbone of the 2020 team was the talented group of freshmen from the 2017 class including Heisman Trophy-winning WR Devonta Smith . For the first time in the Playoff era this team was not composed of four consecutive #1 classes, the 2017 class finished #1 (323.87) as did the 2019 class (317.52). The 2018 class was #5 (289.94) and the 2020 class was #2 (310.49) for a 4-year average of (310.46). Alabama had fifteen 5*, seventy-four 4*, and fifteen 3* recruits for a Blue-Chip Index of 83%.

2021 and 2022 Georgia Bulldogs

The two-time champions had a five-year run of recruiting classes that have produced a roster with twenty 5*, fifty-eight 4*, and seventeen 3* recruits (2021 team), and eighteen 5*, sixty 4*, and twenty-one 3* recruits (2022 team). The Bulldogs had the #1 class in 2018 (323.31), #2 in 2019 (309.48), #1 in 2020 (313.48), #4 in 2021 (294.80), and #3 in 2022 (318.34) for an average of 310.27 (2021) and 309,03 (2022). The Blue-Chip Index for 2021 was 80% and 77% for 2022.

2023 Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is by far the lowest-ranked team on the list as far as recruiting rankings go having finished inside the top 10 once (2022 #9 class 262.13). The other three classes that made up the bulk of this team were #10 in 2020 (263.84), #13 in 2021 (262.15), and #17 in 2023 (245.13) for an average of 258.31. The Wolverines had two 5*, forty-eight 4*, and forty-three 3* recruits for a Blue Chip Index of 54%.

All 10 Teams Ranked by Recruiting Average

1. 2015 Alabama (315.86)

2. 2017 Alabama (314.06)

3. 2020 Alabama (310.46)

4. 2021 Georgia (310.27)

5. 2022 Georgia (309.03)

6. 2014 Ohio State (290.76)

7. 2019 LSU (280.50)

8. 2018 Clemson (267.93)

9. 2016 Clemson (259.88)

10. 2023 Michigan (258.31)

Who’s Next?

Six schools that are not listed above have recruiting composites and a Blue-Chip Index that would qualify for National Championship consideration are Texas (282.73/72%), Texas A&M (281.97/79%), Oregon (275.67/76%), Oklahoma (275.08/73%), and Notre Dame (273.60/67%).

The 2024 Blue Chip Index is headed by Ohio State at a staggering 90% followed closely by Alabama at 88% and Georgia at 80%. Last year’s champion Michigan checks in at 56% behind Florida who is at a surprising 63%, Miami at 61%, and just ahead of Auburn at 53%.

One team that is not at the Championship level for recruiting composite or Blue-Chip Index was Tennessee who comes in at 249.12 and 48%. Ole Miss is another popular pick to challenge for the SEC Championship and make the 12-team Playoff. The Rebels have a low Blue Chip Index of 16% since it is calculated from high school recruiting. Factoring in the 47 transfers that Lane Kiffin has brought to Oxford, they still don’t hit the 50% threshold for Championship contention. It will be fascinating to see if the Rebels can contend with a roster that is built primarily of transfers and if this is the new wave in talent acquisition in College Football.

While the X’s and O’s matter, College Football is still about the Jimmy and Joe’s and who has the most talent.