US may lose future conflict with Russia, China without changes: Commission report

A commission formed by Congress concluded in a report released Monday that the U.S. may lose a future conflict with Russia and China in a global war unless significant changes are made to the national defense strategy.

The Commission on the National Defense Strategy said in the 132-page report that the security environment was at its most dangerous since World War II but that the U.S. was “not prepared” for another global conflict.

The U.S. is being outpaced by China, the Commission noted, estimating that Beijing is spending at least $711 billion annually on defense, rising to meet Washington’s nearly $900 billion annual defense budget.

“The Commission finds that, in many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment,” the report reads. “Without significant change by the United States, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favor.”

China has already surpassed the U.S. to host the world’s largest navy and largest army, and is continuing to modernize its armed forces.

The threat from China has become more acute in recent years as Beijing threatens to unify, by force if necessary, with the self-governing island nation of Taiwan — which the U.S. has unofficial relations with but commits to defending. China is also clashing more frequently with the U.S.-allied Philippines in disputed waters of the South China Sea.

The U.S. recognized China as the most significant threat in the 2022 National Defense Strategy, but the commission said it was “not confident that the U.S. military would succeed” against Chinese forces in a regional conflict.

And the Pentagon has failed to adapt to the growing alliance between its adversaries, including Russia, North Korea and Iran, which could threaten Washington across multiple theaters of war, the commission argued.

“A bipartisan call to arms is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11,” it wrote. “The support and resolve of the American public are indispensable.”

The group also pushed for the U.S. to modernize, criticizing “byzantine research and development” under the Pentagon and the use of old military hardware.

“The Commission finds that the U.S. military lacks both the capabilities and the capacity required to be confident it can deter and prevail in combat,” researchers wrote. “It needs to do a better job of incorporating new technology at scale; field more and higher-capability platforms, software, and munitions; and deploy innovative operational concepts to employ them together better.”

They also faulted the defense industrial base, calling for a revamped industry with a diverse range of companies working together across allied countries. It recognized progress in the form of new initiatives such as Replicator, which aims to create thousands of autonomous drones, but in the event of a protracted conflict, the commission said the U.S. industry would be “unable to meet the equipment, technology, and munitions needs” of the armed forces.

That issue has been well-documented, with the U.S. industrial base struggling to supply Ukraine with the artillery shells it needs in the war against Russia, which has a far larger artillery arsenal.

The defense industry has also become more consolidated under a small group of large defense contractors, which have been accused of overcharging the Pentagon and providing underdeveloped technology or weapons.

Political polarization in the U.S. is also endangering national security, the commission found, while the American public has yet to fully realize the threat from Beijing and other adversaries.

To meet the rising threats, the group recommended the U.S. increase defense spending, continue strengthening alliances, address its recruitment challenges and for the Pentagon to be more willing to cancel unnecessary programs and invest wisely — specifically calling for investments in cyber, space, and software. Researchers also called for a whole-of-country approach, with government, private industry and nonprofits working to support national security needs.

The Commission on the National Defense Strategy was created by Congress after the Biden administration’s 2022 defense strategy and began its work in April 2023, including meetings with officials across government and private industry.