Summer of Soccer best bets: The USWNT stares down a cornered Australia

The U. S. Women's National Team's journey at the Olympics this summer has been relatively straightforward: two wins, six points, seven goals scored, one goal conceded. You can't ask for better metrics than that in a group featuring heavy hitters like Germany and Zambia. But the USWNT needed every single one of those wins and goals, because its toughest group stage opponent was always set to be its final one.

Australia. Hosts and semifinal finishers of the last Women's World Cup in 2023. The Matildas are perennial challengers in competition play and they've got everything on the line in this game against the USWNT. Their path to this point in the Games has been anything but straightforward.

They started things off with a depressing, uncharacteristically limp 3-0 defeat to Germany, then reignited their quarterfinal hopes with a wild, last-gasp 6-5 victory over Zambia. (Yes, Barbra Banda scored a hat trick in that one and her team still lost. Yes, we bet that she'd do it against the U.S. at the odds of +25000 and she went and did it one game later. Yes, we punched the wall a few times once it happened.)

As we enter this final group game between the Matildas and the USWNT, we know one thing for certain: the USWNT will definitely be advancing to the quarterfinals, no matter what magic Australia is able to conjure up. The question, then, becomes simple. Will the USWNT rest its key players, giving Australia the opportunity to sneak a win and confirm its own quarterfinal berth? Or will it take this game just as seriously as any and deliver a statement-making performance in advance of the knockout rounds?

New USWNT coach Emma Hayes is a statement-making kind of leader, so we're comfortable she'll opt for the latter. But regardless, viewers should prepare themselves for a very different USWNT lineup than the one that beat Germany in Matchday 2. Veteran striker Lynn Williams may get serious minutes; defender Jenna Nighswonger may as well.

Australia, meanwhile, will play its best 11. It has a lot of work to do to turn around its -2 goal difference and will aim to put the ball in the back of the net from the opening whistle. With two of the three third-place teams advancing in this competition, Australia doesn't have to win to move forward ... but it will need to limit damage from the USWNT while hoping for a little help from other games in other groups. (Deduction-hit Canada and unpredictable Brazil are Australia's competitors for those two third-place spots.)

Where are the best bets hiding in all of this? We think they're here:

Goals on both ends of the field. We're backing a USWNT win on this one, but with odds of -239, there isn't much to gain from that stance. We can consider Australia's third-place predicament to amp up the potential payout: if Australia does lose, it will need to keep the score close in order to keep its goal difference from getting too much worse. Against a free-wheeling team like the USWNT, that means Australia will have to score ... so we're backing a USWNT win with at least one Australia goal at +210.

Lynn Williams's time to shine. With attacking options like Sophia Smith, Rose Lavelle and Trinity Rodman on offer, we don't get to see that much from veteran USWNT striker Lynn Williams. That should change against Australia: she's come on as a substitute for her younger teammates already in this tournament and will likely come on earlier (or even start in their place) against Australia. Williams knows how to make the most of the time she's given — she scored in her five minutes against Germany — so we're backing her as an anytime goalscorer at +187.

Australia's goal push. Mary Fowler is one of Australia's biggest goalscoring threats, and she'll have to be pitch-perfect against the USWNT to keep her team's knockout hopes alive. Fowler is a productive attacker, one who creates chances and isn't afraid to try for some wild ones, so we're backing her to have at least two shots on target at +500.

The USWNT takes on Australia in the final match of the Olympic group stage on Wednesday, July 31 at 1 p.m. ET.