Tropical conditions in the East, thunderstorms, severe weather risks, & tropical storm development!

It's another day in a tropical air mass which covers much of the eastern half of the US. Today will be another very warm and very humid day. Upper air disturbances are moving along in the flow that set off thunderstorms. Today's thunderstorms will likely be concentrated in areas from Northern Pennsylvania and Northern New Jersey north and northeast into New England. We will watch the radars and see how storm take shape later today. In the meantime we have some scattered activity into this afternoon and some sunshine in the mix as well. Most highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will be slightly cooler at the shore.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Once any thunderstorms die off later tonight it seems that we will get a bit of a break Thursday. We will continue to see tropical conditions but we will be in between upper troughs. Sunshine will take temperatures Thursday a little higher, upper 80s to lower 90s. We will throw in the chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Friday will be very warm to hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Another upper trough running out ahead of a cold front will set off showers and thunderstorms. We also will likely have severe weather risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. The highest risk will like from Eastern Pennsylvania and Central New Jersey southward into the Mid Atlantic states.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

The weekend will bring a weather front to the coast Saturday and that front is likely to stall out over the weekend. This means we will see an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms both for Saturday and Sunday though it doesn't rain all the time. It will be very warm and very humid both days with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees. We also will likely see severe weather risk especially Saturday as the front nears.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

We will also be watching a tropical wave approaching the Bahamas and South Florida over the weekend. The GFS model shows a system approaching this zone and then emerging into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico while other models seem to indicate a developing low in the Bahamas and a track of some sort of tropical cylcone along or off the Southeast US coast. Clearly we are in the monitoring stage for now but it does seem likely that some sort of tropical system will be in the weather picture this weekend and early next week.