Harris leading Trump in New Hampshire by 4 points: Survey

Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by four points in New Hampshire, according to a poll published Wednesday, marking the latest sign of good news for Harris since she became the likely Democratic presidential nominee.

The Emerson College polling/WHDH survey of New Hampshire voters found 50 percent said they support Harris, while 46 percent picked the former president.

Four percent of voters were undecided, though when asked which candidate they lean more towards, Harris’s support ticked up to 52 percent and Trump to 48 percent, pollsters said.

When third party presidential candidates were mixed in, Harris led Trump by a wider margin of 7 points, 48 to 41 percent, while six percent chose independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 1 percent picked Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein.

The finding marks a shift from the slight lead Trump held over President Biden in the Granite State earlier this month following the president’s poor debate performance.

Biden won New Hampshire in 2020, while Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton took the state in 2016.

Amid mounting pressure from some Democrats to withdraw from the race in the wake of his poor debate showing and declining poll numbers, Biden announced last week he would not seek reelection and endorsed Harris to run as his successor.

Harris’s entrance and Biden’s exit quickly changed the nature of the race, with several polls showing a tighter race between the vice president and Trump.

Wednesday’s poll also showed Harris fared better against Trump than Biden did last year, months before the debate performance.

“Harris has improved upon Biden’s November 2023 polling performance against Trump by three points, 47 percent to 50 percent, and Trump’s support similarly increased by four, 42 percent to 46 percent,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a release.

“On the ballot with independent candidates, Harris outperforms Biden more significantly: Biden led Trump by three in November, 40 percent to 37 percent, now Harris leads by seven, 48 percent to 41 percent,” Kimball added.

Kimball pointed to an increase in youth support for Harris, when compared to Biden’s previous numbers. Harris has a 17-point lead among voters under 30 with independent candidates on the ballot, compared to Biden, who led by four among the group last November.

More than half, 53 percent, of Granite State voters said they disapprove of the job Biden is doing in office, while 39 percent approved.

The race between Harris and Trump remains tight on a national level, with a polling index by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill showing Trump with a 1.7 percent lead over Harris as of Wednesday.

The Emerson College polling/WHDH survey was conducted July 26-28 among 1,000 registered voters in New Hampshire.

The poll’s credibility, similar to a poll’s margin of error, for the sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points in 19 of 20 cases in each state, while the credibility interval for the 433 Democratic primary voters and 421 Republican primary voters are each plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.