Men's Olympic Golf Paris 2024: Favorite Outright Bets To Win Gold Medal

The 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, France are the talk of the sports world this summer, and the Men's Olympic Golf competition kicks off this Thursday, Aug. 1, at Le Golf National, located in Saint-Quentin-ev-Yvelines. This year marks the third Olympic golf tournament since the sport returned to the Summer Olympics in 2016, with England's Justin Rose (Rio de Janeiro) and the United States' Xander Schauffele (Tokyo) winning the last two Gold Medals.

Le Golf National, widely considered to be among the best and most difficult courses in France, is no stranger to premiere events. The course has been the site for the Open de France on the DP World Tour since opening in 1990, with the tournament serving as the oldest annual event in Continental Europe. The track also hosted the 2015 Senior Open and 2018 Ryder Cup, where the Europeans handily defeated the Americans 17.5 to 10.5. Le Golf National features tight fairways, multi-layered Ryegrass/Fescue rough, pesky Bentgrass/Poa green complexes, 10 holes with water hazards, and a grueling four-hole closing stretch. Four of the last seven Open de France winners have failed to eclipse 12-under.

The International Golf Federation uses the Official World Golf Rankings to determine the Olympic Golf Rankings, aka the 60-player field eligible to compete for the gold medal. The top 15 players in the OWGR are eligible for the Olympics, with a limit of four players per country. Additionally, the rest of the field is filled out based on the OWGR, with a maximum of two eligible players from each country that does not already have two (or more) players inside the top 15.

Related: Men's Olympic Golf Paris 2024: Course & Field Preview, Key Stats, + Odds

The Americans lead the way with four players in the 60-man field — World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, defending Gold Medalist Xander Schauffele, two-time major winner Collin Morikawa, and 2023 U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark. Rory McIlroy (IRE), Jon Rahm (ESP), Viktor Hovland (NOR), Ludvig Aberg (SWE), Hideki Matsuyama (JPN), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG), Jason Day (AUS), and Tom Kim (KOR) are other notable players representing their native countries in Paris this week.

Let's get into my favorite picks to win the gold medal at Le Golf National!

FAVORITE BETS TO WIN GOLD

Collin Morikawa (+1500 FanDuel Boost)

If you've been a weekly reader or tailed my picks throughout the 2024 season, you're probably sick of seeing Morikawa's name pop up in these pieces. I understand, as I'm sick of my pockets being empty despite the two-time major winner seemingly contending every week since the Masters. It's been a frustrating ride alongside Morikawa this year, but I still believe he's going to win something of significance before the season's end, whether that be a gold medal or a FedExCup Playoff event.

Since contending at Augusta en route to a T3 finish, Morikawa has racked up 10 top-20 results in his past 11 starts, including a T4 at the PGA Championship, a solo second at The Memorial, a T14 at the U.S. Open, and a T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open. His only finish outside of the top 20 came at the Zurich Classic in late April, which was a team event where he played alongside Kurt Kitayama. Morikawa has been on a sensational run this summer, and he's been doing it by playing the most well-rounded golf of his professional career.

Not only has the California native returned to peak form with his irons, gaining over six strokes to the field at The Open and popping for at least two strokes in six of his past seven events. But he's also been spectacular in the short-game categories, which has elevated his game to another level. Morikawa did drop strokes putting at Royal Troon for the first time since the PGA Championship, however, both of those losses were due to abysmal final rounds on the green. Outside of that, he's gained strokes with the flat stick in every start dating back to the Masters, while also gaining over one stroke around the greens in nine of his past 12 starts.

While Morikawa has never played at Le Golf National in the past, the course should be set up perfectly for his skillset, given accuracy off the tee and elite iron play are crucial for contending. According to my model, he rates out as the third-best player in the field, trailing only Scheffler and Schauffele. Among all players in the field, Morikawa ranks first in Par-4s: 400-450 Yards, second in Fairways Gained, third in Good Drive Percentage, third in WSG: Approach, fourth in Bogey Avoidance, fourth in WSG: Tee To Green, fifth in WSG: Off The Tee, seventh in Proximity 175-200 Yards, ninth in Greens Gained, 11th in WSG: Around The Green, and 12th in Scrambling over the past 24 rounds. All parts of his game are rolling right now, and I believe that will translate over marvelously in Paris this week.

It's also helpful that Morikawa does have Olympic experience, finishing T4 at the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics after losing out to C.T. Pan in the seven-man playoff for the Bronze Medal. He's also represented the United States twice at the Ryder Cup and once at the Presidents Cup in his young career, all of which should aid in settling the nerves and keeping his composure in pressure situations.

Even though Morikawa has come up short time and time again this season, I believe he's primed to break through again on the big scene in Paris.

Tom Kim (+2800 FanDuel)

Tom has been in a mini slump since nearly earning his fourth PGA Tour victory at the Travelers Championship, as he's coming off two missed cuts in his past three starts. However, I believe the 22-year-old is worthy of another go here this week, as I always fancy his chances on courses shorter than 7,300 yards.

All three of Kim's PGA Tour wins -- two at the Shriners Children's Open and one at the Wyndham Championship -- have occured on courses shorter than 7,300 yards. It's also worth pointing out that Kim does have past experience at Le Golf National, as he finished T6 here last year after holding the first-round lead. The South Korean superstar gained strokes in all four major categories that week, including 3.6 strokes ball striking and 5.7 strokes putting.

Even with his recent slip ups at The Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic, Kim still rates out as the sixth-best player in the field this week, according to my model. Among all players in the field, Kim ranks fourth in Scrambling, sixth in Fairways Gained, seventh in WSG: Approach, ninth in WSG: Tee To Green, ninth in Par-4s: 450-500 Yards, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, and 14th in Greens Gained over the past 24 rounds.

Kim's game has translated remarkably well across the globe for his young age, as he also picked up top-20 finishes in Europe last fall at the BMW PGA Championship and DP World Tour Championship, in addition to his T6 at the Open de France. Then, there's his three top-20 results at the Genesis Scottish Open since stepping onto the professional scene, giving me more reasons to believe in his chances in France.

With a premium on accuracy and clean play from tee to green, I'm taking another crack on Kim to bring the gold back to South Korea.

Sepp Straka (+5000 BetRivers Enhanced)

Even though he's yet to win in 2024, Straka has put together the most consistent season of his career, finishing T5 at the RBC Heritage, Charles Schwab Challenge, and The Memorial, while also posting a T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship and two T16s at THE PLAYERS Championship and The Masters. The 31-year-old Austrian has proved that he can compete with the best players in the world, and I believe he's poised for another high-end finish this week in Paris.

Straka has been on an outstanding run with his ball striking recently, as he's gained at least two strokes to the field in that category in ten of his past 11 measured starts. The two-time PGA Tour winner has cemented himself as one of the most accurate drivers from off the tee, ranking second in that category this season. Additionally, Straka ranks second in Good Drive Percentage and fifth in Fairways Gained over the past 24 rounds.

While Straka has yet to tee it up at Le Golf National, he does have a lofty track record at similar-ish courses featured on Tour. His maiden victory came at PGA National in 2022 (also finished T5 there in 2023), another track littered with water hazards that often has players hitting less than driver from off the tee. Then, he's posted two top-16s at TPC Sawgrass over the past three years, which is another course that shares the same characteristics.

Like Morikawa, Straka represented his native country at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, where he impressively finished 10th and gained over six strokes to the field. As a much more established player at this point of his career, I wouldn't be surprised to see Straka in the mix again for the gold going into the final round.

All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *

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