The energy and momentum building behind Vice President Kamala Harris' s campaign may not be enough to bring competitive down-ballot races to the Democrats' side, as polling shows that the House is still narrowly projected to stay under Republican control.
Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings released Wednesday showed Republicans remain "narrowly ahead" but that there is not yet a clear winner. The polling group also noted two races that are shifting further into GOP favor as Republican lawmakers are seeking to expand their razor-thin House majority.
The poll found that Rep. Yadira Caraveo's (D-CO) race in Colorado's 8th Congressional District moved from a "leans Democratic" to a "toss-up" — confirming fears from as recent as two weeks ago when Democrats were concerned that President Joe Biden's candidacy could be a liability for Democrats running in tight congressional contests.
Caraveo's district voted for Biden in 2020 by about 4.5 points, roughly matching his national margin. However, the district backed Trump by a few points in 2016 and leaned more Democratic in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections than it did in 2020.
Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, left vacant by Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), shifted from "leans" to "likely Republican." Democrat Adam Frisch will face off against Republican Jeff Hurd in the general election. With Boebert as the 3rd District's GOP candidate, the race was rated as a "toss-up" by the Cook Political Report, as Frisch had narrowly lost to the congresswoman in 2022 and was outspending and outraising her.
With Boebert shifting to the 4th District to run for former Rep. Ken Buck's seat, the 3rd District's rating moved back to "lean Republican" late last year. Crystal Ball noted that pundits believe it will be harder to beat back a "normal Republican" like Hurd compared to Boebert, a hard-line conservative whose term this Congress has been marked with scandals .
Crystal Ball noted that control over the House may come down to the handful of narrow-margin districts that Biden won in 2020 that could flip in favor of former President Donald Trump this year. The polling group lists Reps. Jared Golden (D-ME), Don Davis (D-NC), Emilia Sykes (D-OH), Matt Cartwright (D-PA), Susan Wild (D-PA), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) as "toss-up" races.
Golden and Gluesenkamp Perez are the only two "toss-ups" who have not yet endorsed Harris for president. Both, including Caraveo and Davis, recently voted to condemn the vice president for failing in her duties as the "border czar." The resolution was part of Republicans' efforts to tie Biden's border policies to Harris and amp up messaging over the influx of illegal immigrants at the southern border, a major issue on top of voters' minds heading into the 2024 election.
However, the House remaining in GOP hands is not yet set in stone. Republicans are defending 18 districts that Biden won in 2020 compared to the eight districts Democrats are defending. The House is split 221-214, meaning Democrats need to win four more seats to secure the majority.
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Crystal Ball found that Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks's (R-IA) race in Iowa's 1st Congressional District moved from "likely" to "leans Republican." She faces a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan, who lost by a little under 7 percentage points in 2022. The district covers Iowa's bluest county, Johnson, home to the University of Iowa, but it voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 by about 3 points. With Iowa just recently allowing its six-week abortion ban to go into effect this week, it could help Bohannan with a narrow upset.
Harris's candidacy has resulted in large donations and surges in voter sign-ups, though some Republicans are calling it a "honeymoon" period that will not last as voters continue to be worried about immigration and the economy. Her entry into the race has more or less put the presidential race back into a toss-up, with Trump holding a slight edge. Polling has varied showing her erasing the lead Trump had over Biden, while others show her steadily increasing with the former president still ahead.
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