Chance for La Niña During Winter '24/'25 is Weakening According to Canadian Model

The talk of the summer has been the increasing likelihood of La Niña occurring during Winter '24/'25, but one forecast model is changing its tune.

CanSIPS (Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System), which can also be used to forecast weather in the continental United States, is showing a decreasing chance of La Niña forming this winter. See below.

When SST anomalies stay within -0.5 and +.05 degrees celsius, it's referred to as La Nada (also known as ENSO Neutral). Meaning, neither La Niña nor El Niño are present.

The July 31st, 2024 forecast is a fairly strong departure from previous models. As depicted by the different colored lines, the chance of La Niña has been weakening with each monthly forecast, but there was still a significant chance of La Niña occurring from at least August 2024 through June 2025.

If the most recent model from CanSIPS is correct, North America might experience a weak La Niña from October 2024 through January 2025, but SST anomalies are projected to raise above the -.05 degree threshold by February of 2025.

According to Fox Weather , every La Nada/neutral year over the last two decades has produced above average heat during the summer months. Summer 2025 could be a hot one, if the recent model is proven to be correct.

POWDER is The Skier's Magazine, so what does La Nada mean for our favorite pastime? In summary, it's hard to say. Fox Weather describes how La Nada affects the jet stream:

"Similar to when El Niño and La Niña are in control, neutral conditions impact weather across the country and around the globe. Typically, there are fewer kinks in the jet stream, meaning more regional patterns dominate local weather.

The world experienced extended neutral cycles in: 1990-1991; 1993-1994; 2003-2004; 2012-2013; 2012-2014; and 2019-2020."

Austin Pearson of Purdue University explains what could happen if ENSO Neutral/La Nada does occur during the winter of '24/'25, "ENSO neutral is generally associated with fairly normal winter weather patterns across the US. Much of the Midwest is dominated by cold temperatures, while the southern US is warm and wet. Hurricane development is normal during this phase."

If you're left scratching your head after reading this article, fear not, friends. Long-range weather forecasting is hard, and even more challenging to understand.

It's important to remember that CanSIPS is just one of dozens of models, and we're still months away from the ski season. Things can and will change, and we'll continue to keep you informed as new information is provided.

Related: La Niña Watch Issued for Winter '24/'25

Be the first to read breaking ski news with POWDER. Subscribe to our newsletter and stay connected with the latest happenings in the world of skiing. From ski resort news to profiles of the world’s best skiers, we are committed to keeping you informed.

Submit your best clips for a chance to be featured on POWDER. Tune in and watch handpicked, high-quality ski videos streaming all day long on POWDER TV , and subscribe to our YouTube channel .