Israel sent a message to the leaders of Iran and its proxy forces in the region with two separate successful assassinations of a senior Hamas leader and senior Hezbollah commander in Tehran, Iran, and Beirut, respectively, over the last several hours.
The Israeli military publicly acknowledged the targeting and killing of Fuad Shukr, a senior commander of Hezbollah, which the Israelis said was responsible for an attack in the Golan Heights that killed a dozen children, but they did not do the same thing after the news of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's death was reported overnight Wednesday. Hezbollah confirmed Shukr's death on Wednesday.
When viewing both assassinations in conjunction, Israel sent a "signal to Iran, Hezbollah, and the broad Iranian axis that no one is safe and that there were perhaps consequences for the multi-front war that they have been waging," Jonathan Schanzer, the senior vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Examiner.
Israel, he said, sent a message to Iran and the leaders of its proxies that "they've dropped the gloves," and described the current moment as a "shift in the war," given Israel's recent displays of its ability "to strike deep into enemy territory, using pinpoint intelligence, using advanced weaponry."
Israeli leaders vowed to respond to the attack in Majdal Shams over the weekend, and that is what they did in going after Shukr. Hezbollah will likely respond in turn, but the scope of its response is a significant unknown that could have profound impacts moving forward.
Haniyeh, who was the diplomatic face of Hamas, was visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian when he was killed by an airborne projectile. Hours earlier, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei posted photos on X of him meeting with Haniyeh and Ziyad al-Nakhalah, the secretary-general of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, another Gaza-based terrorist group.
"I think it will send chills down a lot of Iranians' spines that Israel has both the ability and one would say the audacity to strike into Iran, in a building that belongs to the Revolutionary Guard, it's a lot of symbolics here at the same time," former Israeli military spokesman Johnathan Conricus told the Washington Examiner.
Conricus also questioned Israel's silence on the Haniyeh strike, saying he believes "there would be quite a lot of advantages in actually leading the messaging and saying what it did to Ismail Haniyeh."
Israeli officials argue the nation is battling a coordinated effort led by Iran through several proxy forces in the Middle East, primarily through Hamas and Hezbollah following the former's attack in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Thousands of Palestinian terrorists overpowered the border fence that morning, stormed southern Israel, and killed about 1,200 people, the majority of whom were civilians, and they kidnapped another roughly 250 people.
Since then, Israel has decimated both Hamas and the Gaza Strip. Israeli forces have killed thousands of Hamas fighters and several top leaders, but have also killed just as many, and likely even more civilians, forced nearly the entire population from their homes, and nearly everyone is in dire need of humanitarian aid. The Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry reports the number of deaths in the conflict is nearly 40,000, though that total includes both civilians and combatants.
Israel killed Marwan Issa, the deputy commander in chief of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, in March and targeted Muhammad Deif, the top military commander, weeks ago but has not confirmed he was killed in those strikes.
The most infamous Hamas leader still alive is Yahya Sinwar, the overall leader of Hamas, who is believed to be hidden well underground in Gaza in Hamas's extensive tunnel system.
"Hamas, as of last night, is a shell of itself when we look at the kinds of decapitation strikes that have taken place over the last several months," Schanzer added. "To me, it looks like Hamas is in trouble. ... Israel now controls the supply lines for the Gaza Strip since taking over the Philadelphi Corridor, which borders Egypt, so in other words, no supply lines open."
With Hamas severely crippled, Hezbollah is the most equipped of Iran's proxies and is closest to Israel for possible retaliation. Hezbollah began launching rockets and missiles into northern Israel days after Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, which forced tens of thousands of Israeli civilians in the northern part of the country to flee their homes. Those communities remain evacuated.
Hezbollah is a much larger militant group than Hamas and is believed to have significantly more capabilities. With Hamas's capabilities degraded, Tehran is likely weighing whether to retaliate directly, which it almost never does, or through Hezbollah, which has been engaged in a limited conflict against Israel for effectively the length of its war against Hamas.
"Hezbollah, unlike Hamas, is nowhere near being degraded," Conricus said. "They still have lots of rockets and military capabilities and strategic surprises up their sleeves. They have nation-state capabilities that no other terrorist organization has in terms of command and control, fire capabilities, logistic capabilities, and manpower. They're quite an anomaly in the world of terrorist organizations."
Leaders across the globe have repeatedly warned against an all-out war, while Israel and Hezbollah officials have said they would not stand to be attacked without responding. The dangerous back-and-forth threatens to take their currently limited conflict and turn it into an all-out war that would be highly destructive for both sides.
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Hezbollah has the military capabilities to fire 4,500 rockets at Israel a day for a sustained period of time, according to Conricus, who added that these weapons have the capability to hit targets anywhere in Israel, including major cities such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Hezbollah would also have the ability to conquer and hold Israeli territory, and the casualty numbers "could reach hundreds per day if Hezbollah goes all out," Conricus added.
The United States has desperately sought since Oct. 7 to avoid a wider conflict, even as it is committed to Israel's defense. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed on Tuesday that the U.S. would aid Israel if an all-out war with Hezbollah broke out.
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