Uncertainty for NC ahead of possible tropical system forming; chances still at 60% for tropical development

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — While chances remained at 60 percent Wednesday for a tropical wave in the Atlantic to form into a tropical depression or named system, there is a lot of uncertainty ahead for North Carolina and the southeastern United States.

The large tropical wave Wednesday over the Lesser Antilles is continuing as a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday afternoon.

Development of the system is not expected in the next two days, but over the next 7 days, there is a medium chance the wave could become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said.

The system is moving generally west-northwestward towards the Bahamas and Cuba — an area “more conducive for development,” forecasters said.

But, there are many variables still in play. One of two models examined by the CBS 17 Storm Team had a major change in the track on Wednesday of a potential system.

The American or GFS model, shows a southern track for any system that develops — taking it eventually into the Gulf of Mexico and then to the west coast of Florida on Monday, according to CBS 17 Meteorologist Rachel Duensing.

The European model showed “a big shift” from just earlier in the day Wednesday, Duensing said.

That model now shows the system moving over the Greater Antilles before also turning into the Gulf of Mexico. But the European model shows the system moving back out into the Atlantic in the middle of next week while the American model does not, she said.

Also, Duensing said two key questions lead to uncertainty.

“We don’t know exactly where the system will form … where will the center actually develop,” she said. “Because of that uncertainty, models can’t decide where to take the system because, again, it can’t agree on where the center will be or where it will go.”

She also said the timing is critical.

“Development is not expected at the earliest this weekend — but if it has too much interaction with land while trying to form, that can be a challenge for it to form,” Duensing said.

Once the center of a storm forms “we’re going to have a much better idea of what to expect,” she added.

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