Fact check: Energy price cap is expected to rise by just under 10% in October

An online video featuring MoneySavingExpert.com founder Martin Lewis claims to show that the energy price cap will rise 77% on October 1 to £3,500 for the typical household.

A caption posted alongside the video reads “Gas prices set to go up 77% 1st October. Labour has lied to you again.”

Evaluation

The video is two years old and consumer campaigner Mr Lewis is referring to the October 2022 price cap, not the one that is set to come into force later this year.

The latest forecasts show that the October 2024 price cap is expected to rise by a little under 10% to £1,723 for the typical household.

The facts

The video, which has been shared widely, has a TikTok username – @novaramedia – embedded on the footage.

Searching for that TikTok username reveals that the video of Mr Lewis was uploaded to the Novara Media TikTok channel on July 31, 2022.

The most recent forecast from consultancy Cornwall Insight is that the price cap on energy bills for a typical household will increase by 9.9% to £1,723 from October 1. That forecast was released on June 28, 2024.

A typical household is one that uses what industry regulator Ofgem considers to be an average amount of energy. The cap shows how much a household can expect to pay if it uses the exact amount of energy in the prediction. If a household uses more energy they will pay above the cap.

Links

Post on X ( archived post and video )

Novara Media video on TikTok from 2022 ( archived post and video )

Cornwall Insight – Price cap forecasts fall ahead of election ( archived )

Ofgem typical use calculation ( archived )