Preview: UFC on ABC 7 ‘Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov’

The Octagon on Saturday will land in the Middle East for the second time in two months with a mid-afternoon card on network television. Like the Ultimate Fighting Championship ’s visit to Saudi Arabia in June, UFC on ABC 7 comes with a stacked main draw featuring a mix of high stakes, star power and potential action at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The excellent headliner sees Cory Sandhagen return from injury to reaffirm his status as a top bantamweight contender against rising talent Umar Nurmagomedov in the most significant bout of the Russian’s career. In the co-main event, highly touted middleweight prospect Sharabutdin Magomedov —last seen at that Saudi Arabia show in June—gets a significant test against Michal Oleksiejczuk . Meanwhile, two other fights—a bantamweight tilt matching Marlon Vera with Deiveson Figueiredo and a women’s strawweight affair pairing Mackenzie Dern and Lupita Godinez —are each quite important in their respective divisions. Add in the name value of Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa , plus a violent confrontation between Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener to open festivities, and this lineup has a bit of everything.

Now to the UFC on ABC 7 “Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov” preview:

Bantamweights

#10 BW | Umar Nurmagomedov (17-0, 5-0 UFC) vs. #2 BW | Cory Sandhagen (17-4, 10-3 UFC)

ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-305), Sandhagen (+245)

Sandhagen might finally get his long-awaited title shot with a win here. He made his UFC debut in 2018 as a complete afterthought, added to the card during fight week to help fill things out after some late cancellations. It quickly became apparent that Sandhagen would be a fighter to watch, and within two years, he was within striking distance of a bantamweight title shot. John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao each figured to be tough tests for a greenhorn like the 2019 version of Sandhagen, but “Sandman” managed to skate by with two decision wins, using his long frame to frustrate each of his veteran opponents from a distance. A 2020 pairing against Aljamain Sterling figured to determine the next title contender at 135 pounds. That wound up being Sterling. It took just a minute and a half for Sterling to get Sandhagen to the mat and find a rear-naked choke. Wrestling defense has been the closest thing to a liability for Sandhagen, who rebounded from the Sterling loss with two impressive knockouts before dropping a controversial decision to T.J. Dillashaw . While Dillashaw was able to grind things out at times, he didn’t do much with the control. That was surprisingly enough for the former bantamweight champion to earn two out of three scorecards. Somehow, injuries and the unavailability of other contenders meant that Sandhagen still wound up in an interim title fight against Petr Yan despite coming off a loss. That wound up as the most complete performance anyone has put together against Sandhagen. It was a sharp performance from both men but might serve as the best example of what Yan can do at his absolute peak. For Sandhagen’s part, he has done well to continue rounding out his game to the point that he might be the most well-rounded fighter in the division, particularly after developing his offensive wrestling. That came in handy against Marlon Vera and Rob Font last year, particularly after Sandhagen tore his triceps early against Font and was forced to grind out a win. That injury has kept Sandhagen out of action for nearly a year on the dot, and a win against Nurmagomedov might be the only thing standing between him and potential championship glory.

Nurmagomedov comes with the weight of high expectations that he has lived up to every step of the way, even if this is clearly his toughest fight yet. The cousin of former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov , his first handful of UFC bouts were about what you’d expect, with the Russian quickly finding takedowns and subsequent submissions. However, a win over Raoni Barcelos to kick off 2023 gave him a long-overdue chance to show his wares off on the feet, resulting in a first-round knockout. Nurmagomedov hasn’t really been able to build on that momentum since. He was actually slated to face Sandhagen last year before an injury gave that spot to Font, and he wound up in a surprisingly tough and wrestling-heavy win against Bekzat Almakhan in March. He’s still an obviously elite talent who should at least prove his ability to hang at a high level. If nothing else, Nurmagomedov’s lightning-fast ability to shoot for a takedown should give Sandhagen some issues. All in all, this does look like Sandhagen’s fight to lose, since he might be the toughest fight in the division on paper. His wrestling is now less of a liability if not entirely a strength defensively, and his ability to successfully attack from range does figure to give Nurmagomedov a lot of difficulty in setting things up for the better part of five rounds. It’s just nice to see Sandhagen back and Nurmagomedov get a high-level opponent. The pick is Sandhagen via decision.

Jump To »
Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk
Figueiredo vs. Vera
Chiesa vs. Ferguson
Dern vs. Godinez
Alvarez vs. Brener
The Prelims

Middleweights

Sharabutdin Magomedov (13-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-8, 7-6 UFC)

ODDS: Magomedov (-238), Oleksiejczuk (+195)

It’s nice to see Magomedov fight on a quick turnaround for a late addition to this card, if only to help figure out where “Shara Bullet” actually stands in the 185-pound pecking order. With a villainous appearance straight out of central casting, Magomedov built both a fanbase and a highlight reel as a flashy kickboxer ahead of his much-hyped UFC debut in October. That debut, a decision win over Bruno Silva , was a mixed bag. Magomedov’s speed and athleticism were clearly on display even as he spent a lot of time getting outwrestled by Silva, who isn’t historically known as much of a takedown artist. Magomedov’s return engagement came in June, and after some late opponent changes resulted in him facing UFC newcomer Antonio Trocoli , it was expected that the Russian would impress in a walkover fight. Instead, Trocoli mostly succeeded in making things an ugly grind before tiring and falling victim to a late Magomedov knockout. Magomedov is more curiosity than contender at this point, and Oleksiejczuk looks like the perfect litmus test to see exactly where he currently stands.

Oleksiejczuk has had an interesting run under the UFC banner, first coming to the promotion as a light heavyweight in 2017. At that point, Oleksiejczuk’s approach was built around absorbing a ton of offense and tiring his opponents out, and that proved crazy enough to work early on, with the Pole even successfully eating shots from hitters as hard as Khalil Rountree . At some point, Oleksiejczuk’s game developed along a somewhat tragically comic path, ending in him becoming the exact type of fighter he used to take advantage of, hunting for the quick knockout before tiring himself out. As an undersized light heavyweight, it wasn’t a shock to see Oleksiejczuk eventually move down to 185 pounds, but it hasn’t changed his fortunes much. There’s still some trickiness to his aggressive boxing, but he still tends to get blown out of the water against much better athletes. The interesting thing here is that while Oleksiejczuk has gotten rocked hard in most of his losses, he has still never actually been knocked out in the UFC. Instead, opponents have typically found success hopping on a submission once Oleksiejczuk is taken out of his game. With Magomedov having shown little—if any—grappling skills to date, it seems worth the flier to think that Oleksiejczuk is tough enough to survive and drag him into his deepest waters yet, with high potential that he can turn that into an upset. The pick is Oleksiejczuk via second-round stoppage.

Jump To »
Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk
Figueiredo vs. Vera
Chiesa vs. Ferguson
Dern vs. Godinez
Alvarez vs. Brener
The Prelims

Bantamweights

#6 BW | Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1, 12-3-1 UFC) vs. #4 BW | Marlon Vera (23-9-1, 15-8 UFC)

ODDS: Figueiredo (-155), Vera (+130)

The bantamweight division is getting an increasingly deep bench of contenders, and Figueiredo could add his name to that list with an impressive win here. Henry Cejudo was the man that saved the flyweight division, but Figueiredo helped bring it to relevancy with his 2020 title win and subsequent four-fight rivalry with Brandon Moreno . “Deus da Guerra” had a rare level of explosiveness and power for a 125-pound fighter, and while he could be a bit patient in his approach at times, he also proved more than willing to match an opponent’s fast pace and lay on a beating. He won the vacant title with a one-round beatdown of Joseph Benavidez , then made his first defense by tapping out Alex Perez in under two minutes. That led to his feud with Moreno, which saw the two trade the title for two years and change until Figueiredo lost the last fight. By the end of things, the two were making adjustments upon adjustments upon adjustments to the point that the two seemed firmly inside each other’s heads. With that chapter over, Figueiredo used the opportunity to stop cutting weight and move up to 135 pounds, and thus far, it has been a fairly smooth transition. The Brazilian has moved back to his previous style, fighting at a slow pace by default and landing some big counters, but Figueiredo’s power has certainly translated up a division; and he has been more willing to pivot to his wrestling, which was particularly on display in an April win over Cody Garbrandt , which saw Figueiredo salt things away via submission after a slow first round. With no reason to waste time, Figueiredo’s now firmly in the mix with top bantamweights, so it’s not a shock to see him draw a recent title challenger in Vera for his next fight.

Vera is one of the most impressive prospect development stories of the last few years, though he might be hitting the point where his game needs some major adjustments. Ecuador’s entry into the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America” back in 2014, Vera stood out more as a personality than a fighter. With expectations low for the cast, in general, Vera seemed destined to be a footnote, particularly after he lost his first post-show fight to castmate Marco Beltran . However, the UFC surprisingly kept Vera around, and thus began a slow march up the ranks. At first, Vera was a fairly one-dimensional fighter—a grappling threat who could get easily frustrated when things went wrong—but within a few fights, he developed a solid enough striking game to keep opponents honest. Once Vera rounded things out, his next challenge was overcoming his tendency for slow starts, and after initially trying to force things through aggression, he eventually landed on an approach that verged on being too calm. At some point, Vera realized he was sickeningly durable, so as he started getting higher-profile fights, he eventually just decided to wait things out and focus on big moments of offense. Somehow, it kept working. Knockout wins over Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz came through late comebacks, and an impressive decision win over Rob Font saw Vera win rounds by rocking Font a few times, even as the Team Sityodtong product threw out a ton of offense. The rubber figured to hit the road at some point, and that point came in Vera’s fight against Cory Sandhagen in March 2023. Sandhagen was able to consistently stay ahead of Vera and make the Ecuadorian look both inactive and ineffective. A controversial decision over Pedro Munhoz got Vera back in the win column, and despite coming off two of his worst performances in recent memory, that was enough to get “Chito” a title shot. He previously had a win over newly crowned champ Sean O’Malley , and O’Malley wanted the opportunity to avenge his only loss. Avenge it he did, as Vera once again let another opponent outpace him and never forced his way into the fight. This pairing could be a bit tedious in practice, even if it’s a solid bit of matchmaking. Figueiredo’s durable enough that a Vera knockout win would be a shock, and the Brazilian’s counter-focused style could make for a staring match against an opponent who’s also focused on big opportunities at a slow pace. Figueiredo seems the more willing of the two to get after it, as necessary, so he gets the nod, particularly since his pivot towards more wrestling could pay dividends against Vera’s takedown defense. It also wouldn’t be a shock if this wound up as a split decision after a frustrating performance from both men. The pick is Figueiredo via decision.

Jump To »
Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk
Figueiredo vs. Vera
Chiesa vs. Ferguson
Dern vs. Godinez
Alvarez vs. Brener
The Prelims

Welterweights

Michael Chiesa (16-7, 11-7 UFC) vs. Tony Ferguson (25-10, 15-8 UFC)

ODDS: Chiesa (-750), Ferguson (+525)

Ferguson is back once again. That was once cause for celebration, as “El Cucuy” used to be one of the most electric fighters in the sport, stringing together 12 straight wins to establish himself as one of the best lightweights in the world. However, Ferguson had horrible timing in terms of ever getting the undisputed title shot that he richly deserved. The inactivity of Conor McGregor gummed up the works at the top of the division, and a potential matchup with Khabib Nurmagomedov might be the most cursed pairing in mixed martial arts history, falling apart a half a dozen times due to various mishaps and injuries. Ferguson always had a style highly dependent on his athleticism, so he figured to have a rough back end of his career, but it’s still shocking to see exactly how badly things have gone. A 2020 loss to Justin Gaethje has kicked off a seven-fight losing streak in which Ferguson has quickly faded out of fights, including an ugly loss to Paddy Pimblett in December that didn’t do much for either man. Ferguson wants to keep fighting even with those results, and with the UFC willing to keep him under contract and trade on his name value, he makes another trip to the Octagon looking for a win, this time against Chiesa.

These two were initially slated to lock horns in a 2016 main event before Chiesa pulled out due to injury. The good news is that Ferguson at least won’t be cutting much weight for this one, as Chiesa has since moved up to 170 pounds. A streaky grappling specialist as a lightweight, Chiesa found a ton of success early on in his move up to welterweight. He was a much more effective physical force without draining himself through a weight cut, and he impressively bullied his opponents to kick off his welterweight career with four straight wins. However, “The Maverick” hit a clear ceiling in his last three fights. Sean Brady was simply the stronger wrestler, while Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland were each able to take advantage of some defensive lapses and catch Chiesa in a brabo choke. Chiesa seems to be nearing the end of the road himself, as he hasn’t been particularly active while picking up some obligations as a broadcaster, but he should be able to out-wrestle this version of Ferguson in a grind. The pick is Chiesa via decision.

Jump To »
Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk
Figueiredo vs. Vera
Chiesa vs. Ferguson
Dern vs. Godinez
Alvarez vs. Brener
The Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

#7 WSW | Mackenzie Dern (13-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. #10 WSW | Lupita Godinez (12-4, 7-4 UFC)

ODDS: Dern (-130), Godinez (+110)

Some fun matchmaking pairs off two of the most consistently inconsistent fighters in the UFC’s strawweight division. Dern rightfully gained a considerable amount of hype heading into her 2018 UFC debut. She was on the shortlist of most decorated grapplers to make it onto the UFC roster regardless of gender and tied a few regional opponents into pretzels as a result. That grappling wizardry has been on display at times, but that UFC debut—a middling decision win over Ashley Yoder —showed that Dern’s move up against better competition might not be all that smooth. For all of her skill on the mat, Dern isn’t a strong enough wrestler to consistently get to her best skills, and her attempts to improve as a striker have been an adventure to say the least. She clearly has enough durability and horsepower to cause some damage but tends to either throw everything wildly or completely take her foot off the gas. Once Dern worked her way into fights with legitimate contenders, the narrative started to focus around that passivity. She’d have clear stretches of success against the likes of Marina Rodriguez and Xiaonan Yan on the mat but then spend rounds feeling things out on the feet and accomplishing little while coasting to a decision loss. But for one fight, it seemed like Dern might have finally put everything together. Seemingly fueled by rage thanks to some turmoil in her personal life, Dern put a focused beating on Angela Hill in May 2023, striking with a newfound aggression and applying enough pressure to consistently get to her grappling game. That made it particularly frustrating when Dern completely regressed in her next fight against Jessica Andrade , though she did perform better against Amanda Lemos in February. It was still a loss, but Dern showed enough flashes to suggest she isn’t a complete lost cause after her poor performance against Andrade. Dern is still just 31 years old and hitting the point in her professional career where things might actually click, but for the time being, just a win will do against Godinez.

Godinez is another fighter who has seemingly been on the verge of a breakthrough for her entire UFC career. A late-notice signing in 2021, “Loopy” set the tone within the span of the next few months. She’s willing to stay extremely active—including taking three fights in six weeks and fighting on a one-week turnaround—and she tends to run extremely hot and cold, either looking like an absolute terror or accomplishing little over three rounds. When everything works for Godinez, her much-improved pressure striking game is able to flow into some bruising wrestling, allowing her to play an effective bully while putting her opponent through a proverbial spin cycle of takedowns. However, for as much as Godinez looks unstoppable in her victories, it takes surprisingly little at times to throw her completely off track. Early on in her UFC career, Godinez took her foot off the gas against both Jessica Penne and Luana Carolina , seemingly only because she was at a clear height disadvantage. Godinez was also stymied to a surprising degree against Hill when the two locked horns in 2022, and while she has gotten better at using her striking as a fallback when her wrestling doesn’t work, a March loss to Virna Jandiroba showed that she still has a lot of issues against someone who can neutralize her wrestling and keep bringing offense of their own. Godinez should have enough horsepower of her own to stand up to Dern and fight through the gaps in the grappling ace’s game, but their respective careers to date suggest that she is going to be the one to cede ground. So while Dern’s performance figures to be messy, she should be able to win rounds through asserting her aggression. The pick is Dern via decision.

Jump To »
Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk
Figueiredo vs. Vera
Chiesa vs. Ferguson
Dern vs. Godinez
Alvarez vs. Brener
The Prelims

Lightweights

Joel Alvarez (20-3, 5-2 UFC) vs. Elves Brener (16-4, 3-1 UFC)

ODDS: Alvarez (-185), Brener (+154)

This should be a fun encounter between two overachievers. Brener might have been the UFC’s most surprising success story of 2023, since expectations were quite low for the Brazilian ahead of his late-notice debut. He didn’t look particularly dynamic on his regional film and was drawing a tough matchup against Zubaira Tukhugov . However, Brener wound up grinding out a controversial decision victory through sheer aggression, and from there, he kept ignoring the proverbial memo that he was supposed to lose. Brener’s technique can be sloppy and he isn’t much of an athlete, but he’s dogged and durable enough to keep charging forward and making things happen, which included knockouts of Guram Kutateladze and Kaynan Kruschewsky to build on the Tukhugov win. Even Brener’s first UFC loss in May against Myktybek Orolbai saw him continue to impress. Brener got controlled early by a grinder who’s making his name as one of lightweight division’s best prospects but still managed to turn things around in the back half of the fight to nearly steal another victory. Brener looks to get back in the win column against Alvarez, who’s back in action after over a year on the shelf.

It was easy to write Alvarez off ahead of his UFC debut in 2019, since “El Fenomeno” mostly feasted on a weak level of competition on the Spanish regional scene. After an unsuccessful promotional debut against Damir Ismagulov , it became apparent that Alvarez could make his game translate from that regional level to better competition. Massive for the division at 6-foot-3—enough so that he has had continuous problems making weight—Alvarez leverages his length to try and force his opponents into shooting takedowns, at which point he has proven himself to be a venomous submission threat from his back. Only two opponents have been able to blow Alvarez’s game wide open: Ismagulov by staying comfortable and outstriking Alvarez from range and Arman Tsarukyan by mauling him with one of the division’s best top games. A surprisingly vast swath of opposition has fallen right into the Spaniard’s traps, either getting overwhelmed on the feet or diving right into a submission. This fight comes down almost purely to Brener’s ability to survive, since his all-offense style is going to give Alvarez a lot of opportunities to hunt for a finish. He’ll almost surely clamp a deep submission or two onto Brener at some point, but it’s unclear whether or not he can actually finish the job. Alvarez is probably the smart choice, but that’s usually the case for most Brener opponents, and the Brazilian has earned enough benefit of the doubt when it comes to his ability to exceed expectations. The pick is Brener via decision.

Jump To »
Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk
Figueiredo vs. Vera
Chiesa vs. Ferguson
Dern vs. Godinez
Alvarez vs. Brener
The Prelims