If you drafted and held onto Stefon Diggs last year, you felt like a genius in the first half of the season and an idiot in the second half. Diggs played 10 games before Joe Brady took over as Offensive Coordinator for the Bills. In those 10 games, Diggs was the WR4 in half-PPR formats with 164.2 fantasy points. From Weeks 11 - 18, Diggs was the WR46 overall.
He did miss one game in Week 13, but during that same time span, Diggs was still only WR45 in fantasy points per game. The Buffalo Bills wound up playing better after steering away from Diggs as well. They had a 5-5 record before the switch to Joe Brady and then won six of the next seven games to end the season.
The Bills found a recipe without Diggs that worked, so they decided to trade away the nine-year NFL veteran to the Houston Texans this off-season. Diggs will join a more crowded Wide Receiver room than he saw in his year with the Bills. He now will face competition for targets from Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods, amongst others. Diggs had been targeted at least 156 times in each season he played in Buffalo.
That is now a thing of the past. The Texans already saw a pretty even split in the target distribution between Nico Collins and Tank Dell in the limited time both were healthy last season. Add Diggs into the mix, and now we have a messy situation. Diggs’s ADP is currently 35th overall, and the WR20 is off the board (per FantasyPros). Taking Diggs in the late third/early fourth round is banking on him to be a significant contributor to your fantasy team.
It is possible that Diggs separates himself amongst the Texans’ Wide Receivers and is a consistent contributor in fantasy; however, his behind-the-scenes metrics have dropped off this past season. Diggs has always been a darling in the eyes of Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. Diggs consistently finished at the very top of Wide Receivers in his success rate vs. man, zone, and press coverage.
In 2022, Diggs finished in the 96th percentile in all three categories. In 2023, Diggs finished in the 76th percentile vs. man coverage, in the 67th percentile vs. zone coverage, and in the 75th percentile vs. press coverage. Although these are still fine numbers, they represent a major drop off from his years prior.
The other talented Wide Receivers on this team should create more one-on-one opportunities for Diggs this year, but he has lost too much to capitalize on them as he once would have. You will have to take on a high risk in drafting Diggs this year, and the reward may not be worth it. If you can afford the risk, he is still a boom/bust option.
Our consensus projections for Diggs in the 2024 season would be: 79 receptions, 940 yards, 9 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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